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The Anals of Stock Proctology

Published weeknights by 8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time
Weak End Edition Saturday Afternoon

The American Academy of Stock Proctology and
the American Society of Shortsellers
Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair

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Anals Home Cycle Tables Intraday Feed Dow Long Bong Hit SPX Nasgap Golden Stool Uncle Buck
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Pre-market, PM and 4:00 updates are here.

Closing Markets 8/29/03

Cycle Conditions Tables 8/29/03

The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. Charts and discussion below. Note: The Cycle Conditions Charts and daily discussions are updated daily, and supercede the weekly long term chart discussions.

SPX (Charts and Discussion)

Cycle	Phase/PTT	Target
6 Month	Up/2-3 Mo.?	??
10-13 Week	Up-Top/0-12	1015-1025
4-7 Week*	Top/0	1009-1025
5,8,13 Day	Up/0-1	1015-1025

Nasdaq (Charts and Discussion)

Cycle	Phase/PTT	Target
6 Month	Up/2-3 Mo.?	??
10-13 Week	Up-Top/0-12	1860
4-7 Week*	Top/0	1805-1835
5,8,13 Day	Up/0-1	1850

PTT - Periods Till Turn
L-Low, H-High
SWD= Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project
No Factor: Low amplitude is dominated by larger cycles
* The 4 and 6-7 week cycles are distinct but overlap. The dominant cycle is reported.

Cycle Map 8/29/03- Doc's best guess on where the market is headed over the next few weeks.

The 6-7 week cycle is due to top out Tuesday, at the latest. Cmaps are 1009 to 1025. If the rally extends beyond that, the market would be trending under the influence of the 6 month cycle. For the bear case to be viable, it is critical for the SPX to at least drop below 980 over the next three weeks.

The 10-13 week cycle does not appear to be a significant force at this time. It's in an up phase with a mildly positive slope. Because of diminishing volatility its band width has tightened to about 50 points. It's due for a top phase over the next 12 trading days. An earlier breakdown would be bearish, later, bubbleish.

The 6 month cycle bottomed in early August. What this does not tell us is how long the up phase will last, although the benchmark from here is 2-3 months. That means the market may not top out until November or December. With the 10-12 month cycle rolling over, the six month cycle up phase might not be recognizable if the 10-12 month cycle comes down hard and fast. That looks less and less likely each passing day. If the market moves above 1015, that could lead to a spike, with 1040 a minimum target. A break below the 960 area should begin a sustained downtrend.

18 Month Cycle ________ 10-12 Month Cycle_______ 6 Month Cycle_______ 10-13 Week Cycle______
6-7 Week Cycle________

Anals Home Cycle Tables Intraday Feed Dow Long Bong Hit SPX Nasgap Golden Stool Uncle Buck
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UPDATED MoGauge Collapse Continues 8/29/03

Dow Inflatables 8/29/03- The Dow marched quietly higher over the last two hours Friday. The 13 day cycle remains in a weak up phase with a cmap of 9500. 4 and 6-7 week cycle indicators are heading down, but it's a sideways down phase so far. The 10-13 week cycle indicator is on a preliminary sell signal, but the 6 month cycle is apparently early in an up phase, and the force of that is lifting the market. Upside cmaps for the 6-7 and 10-13 week cycles now appear to be between 9515 and 9600. For the time being, the bias remains to the upside as the Dow heads for a test of the highs and cmaps. If the 9500-9600 area rebuffs the rally, the odds are good that the 10-13 week cycle will turn down and the market will go no higher. If they can push through 9600, or simply hang around up there for a few weeks, they'll make a run for 10,000.

All of Doc's daily cycle charts are powered by METASTOCK. (Sorry about the bull.) Available at Doc's bookstore! Metastock is the industry pioneer in charting software. Doc has used it for over 20 years. If you have questions about purchasing Metastock from Doc's store, you can email Doc.

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Anals Home Cycle Tables Intraday Feed Dow Long Bong Hit SPX Nasgap Golden Stool Uncle Buck
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Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment 8/29/03

Cycle Conditions Table

Cycle Chart
The dark blue channel is the idealized 18 month-2 year cycle. Magenta is the 10-12 month cycle. Green is the 6 month cycle. The thin red and blue channels are the 10-13 and 6-7 week cycles, as projected. Those projections shift day to day in response to the market.

The 17 day RoC broke upward out of its base Thursday, followed by the 29 day RoC today. This suggests that the market could move above 1015, making the treading range a base with a minimum target would be 1055. That's a "what if" scenario. Resistance at 1010-15 is formidable and there are too many conflicting indications for any foregone conclusions. 6-7 week cycle oscillators are turning down. That's an indication that the market may not break out. The best bet is that the trading range continues for months as the 5-6 month and 10-12 month cycles remain juxtaposed into November.

Sentiment

VIX remains below 20. (up on the inverted scale chart). Hitting 20, then reversing, has repeatedly marked major tops over the last five years. Hasn't worked so well this year.

Investors Intelligence reported last week that overwhelmingly bullish advisory sentiment got even more extreme last week. Bulls rose to 56% from 55% and bears were 19% versus 18%. Bulls have come down from 60% on June 19, but bears have only risen from 17%. This string of readings are the most extreme since August 1987.

The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle. The 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week cycle. The blue line overlaid on the price chart is the 10-13 week cycle oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands" may reflect either 6 month or 10-12 month cycles.

Long Term 8/22/03

A 61.8% fiber nacho retracement of the last leg down is complete. Longer term cmaps had suggested that a final burst to 1050-1075, even 1100 could occur. Long term upside cmaps don't always get hit. Given what's going on in the liquidity picture, Doc likes the projection below, which is more like the forecasts from past months. It points toward a retest of the lows no later than the second quarter of 2004 and a sub 700 SPX by 2005.

Upon examination of past lows in the mid 1990's, Doc saw two critical lines relative to the massive Hunchback top spanning four years. The first line now projects through 995. The second is around 961. Getting below both levels would create a WHOPsaw, a massive false breakout that fools and traps the majority. The 10-12 month cycle oscillator is turning down suggesting a move to 900 over the next few months, enough to turn the 18 month cycle lower as shown. The incipient downturn in the 18 month cycle indicator bears watching in the weeks ahead.

The longer the nominal cycle length the greater the variance in the actual length of the cycle. The 18 month cycle can range from 12 to 24 months. The nominal 4 year cycle can be 3 years. It can be five years. Four years, give or take a few months has been most typical, especially in the latter half of the twentieth century, but a 3 year cycle is not uncommon. In the first half of the century, cycles frequently lasted 3 or 5 years. Hurst called them "nominal" cycles because cycles vary in length. Looking at charts going back 100 years or more you can see that a 1 year variance is not uncommon for the 4 year cycle. (Subject to change without notice. Dealer title, tax, and tags not included. Consult your local directory for prices in your area. Past performance is not necessary to be a Wall Street analcyst.)

The Portfolio Sphincter's Index is now 46 weeks off the October lows. Here's where the Nikkiu was 46 weeks after its 1992 bubble bust low. We are beginning to see some divergence from the Nikkiu path as our market did not see the three week break the Nik had before beginning a 10 week long push to retest the highs. Our market has retested in less time. The Nik made it's double top in the 56th week. If the US markets can hang on that long, then it's likely that there will be at least one push toward the 18 month cycle cmap of 1050-1100. If it does that, it won't last long, but it would turn the secular trend channel flat, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s.

The US bubble bust markets have been following the Nikkiu model with but minor variations for nearly three and a half years. Given that the systemic responses have been similar, I see no reason to believe the outcome will be different this time, i.e. years of stagnation followed eventually by another collapse.

The wild sentiment readings and the concentration of speculative activity in the market's worst pieces of trash suggests an exhaustive blowoff of historic proportions. Be that as it may, the rally has pushed long term cycle oscillators to the point that should they rise any more, a change in the long term secular trend would be indicated. It appears that longer term cycles are turning flatter, similar to the Nikkei experience of the 1990's. That still leaves prices at, or near, the top of longer term channels, portending a major decline ahead. But instead of looking for lows in the mid 600s next year, the pullback would probably only go into the low 800s.

Basic Edwards and Magee Update- The oldest, and simplest of the modern era theories on technical analysis may still be the best. This chart suggests that the long term downtrend may still be intact up to about 1025.

Here's something interesting. In July of 1998 the market launched a counter trend selloff. It lasted 12 weeks. The high of the move was 128.7% of the low. The recent rally phase lasted 15 weeks. The high of the move was 128.7% of the low. Here we have examples of two huge countertrend moves which went to extremes in violating long term trendlines. The July 1998 example bent, but did not break, the bubble uptrend. This year's rally was a mirror image. Except now, there's no reversal. Instead we see consolidation. Is it distribution or accumulation for a final blowoff? The cmaps say the top is in. The Nikkiu model says Sayonara as well.

Anals Home Cycle Tables Intraday Feed Dow Long Bong Hit SPX Nasgap Golden Stool Uncle Buck
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Nasgap Charts 8/29/03

Cycle Conditions Table

Nasty's 6-7 week cmaps remain in the 1805-1835 range but the 13 day cmap has risen to a possible 1850 and the 10-13 week cmap is at 1860. The chart is a good example of a case where negative divergences were not predictive. Both RoC indicators are now in gear to the upside.

Cycle Chart
The stoolicator is a proxy for the dominant trading cycle, either 6-7 or 10-13 weeks. The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle. The 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week cycle. The teal channel is the idealized 2 year cycle. The light green channel is the idealized 10-12 month cycle. The dark blue channel is the idealized 5-6 month cycle. The red channel is the 10-13 week cycle.

Long Term 8/22/03

The 18 month cycle cmap is 1800-1850. The 10-12 month cycle indicator is on the verge of a sell signal. Once it rolls over, it's over. It looks like it's starting, but it could take months to complete the distribution. The Nas needs to get below 1600 to confirm the beginning of the 18 month cycle down phase. That would also be the point at which the index falls back below the neckline of the huge 4 year long Hunchback top formation. The forecast called for several tests of 1800. That's one down, maybe one or two to go. Or maybe none. The top phase should entail several months of trading between 1650 and 1800. That should be followed by a major decline lasting deep into the first half of 2004.

Anals Home Cycle Tables Intraday Feed Dow Long Bong Hit SPX Nasgap Golden Stool Uncle Buck
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Big Fine Print Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method, and other techniques. This publication is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the estimates and projections presented. The market may or may not meet the projections. Stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Yadda Yadda How's your motha? More disclaimers at the bottom of the page.

Dr. Stepan N. Stool
Chairman of the Department of Stock Proctology
A.S.S. Endowed Chair
American Society of Shortsellers Endowment
American Academy of Stock Proctology

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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time.

The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following:

8 days- 60 minute bars
5 days- 40 minute bars
3 days- 24 minute bars
2 days- 16 minute bars
1 day- 6, 7, or 8 minute bars

On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above.

About centered moving average projections.

ABBREVIATIONS:

cma: centered moving average
cmap: centered moving average projection
os or ozzie: oscillator
RoC: Rate of Change
sto: stochastic
swup: sideways up phase
swdp: sideways down phase