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10 Minute Bar Charts Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Subscription Renewals are coming up! Did you subscribe nearly 90 days ago? If you want to renew, do nothing. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed automatically on the 90 day anniversary and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 7/15/02 3:00 PM Terms and methodology Revised 3 day cycle cmaps are Nas 1300, SPX 865-70, NDX 950 and Dow 8100. Not that much change from mid-day. However, the plunge at 2:30 looks like the 1 day cycle low as projected. PM Update 7/15/02 12:45 PM Terms and methodology As I'm writing the market is trying to put in a 5 hour cycle low. However, the downtrend is so strong, the up phase should amount to little. On the other hand, a 1 day cycle low is due around 2:30, so this could be a false start. So there are two likely scenarios. One is bearish. One is more bearish. Since the half span and full span moving averages of the shortest cycles are moving in lockstep, it's not possible to project lows on cycles shorter than 3 days. The 3 day and 8 day cycle lows are due tomorrow. The updated cmaps are on the chart. The Dow is pointed at 8250. If anything big changes I'll post an update, with a notice on the ID Stool message board. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/15/02 11:35 AM Terms and methodology OK, we have enough data for new 3 day cycle cmaps for the lows tomorrow. They are, maestro, drum roll please, SPX 873, Nas 1300, Nas Hunnert 950, and Dow Jokes 8300. All of course subject to change with or without notice. These are guidelines only. AM Update 7/15/02 9:25 AM Terms and methodology The 5 hour and 1 day cycles were headed up in a weak sideways up phase late Friday. The top is due at the open and again at 11 AM. The upside projections are...well, there aren't any. Looks like they were met late Friday, and the fucutures suggest it will be straight down from the gitgo. The 3 day cycle turned lower Friday afternoon. It looks like the down phase of this cycle should govern through tomorrow. However, the 5 and 8 day waves are in weak sideways up phases. That could mitigate against an all out collapse right away. It's too early for downside projections, but it doesn't look like last week's lows will be broken on this drop. For now, the picture is mixed with a downward bias, but nothing dramatic. Look for prices to drift down to last weeks lows. If that changes, I'll let you know. Next update will be around 1PM, barring anything dramatic.
Return of the Prodigal Stool 7/14/02 So much ground to cover, and so little time. Many of you are looking for a rally here. While some of the necessary prerequisites are in place, on balance, most are not. Yes the cmaps and time frames I posted weeks ago, have been met, and yes, I've missed intermediate bottoms, or underestimated rallies in the past, so if you're looking for a rally, and you get one, Doc extends his hand to congratulate you. But I just don't see it. The indicators don't look like they are quite there, and with the trend as weak as it is, Dr. Stool's peristalsis tic remote viewer doesn't see a rally. Quite the contrary, it senses a greater likelihood of either a massive portfolio sphincter laxation (Thanks to stoolie metamucil, who is a real doctor, for that word), or a gradual shift into a dead zone trading range, from lower levels of course. The next two to three weeks remain a high risk period, with the 6-7 week cycle turning down, and the 10-13 week cycle beginning a bottoming process, which may yet have a spike low. All that said, on the slim chance that a big jam did develop, I'd cover my shorts, and take another vacation. But I doubt you need to worry about that for now. Below are the reasons Doc remains bearish. (What, you're surprised?) He'll cover some of the sectors, and other features in the AM update. Finally, it's good to be back! Thanks for hanging in there while I took a much needed vacation. The Feed
has had its foot steady on the "gas" pedal. Contrary to poopular
belief, it has not been jamming, just growing its paper holdings at a
steady 10% annual rate, which is shocking enough in its own right, but not
enough to reflatulate stock prices without help from other market
participant segments. They aren't even trying to jam stocks it seems. A
stock jam would be signaled by the total Feed rising into the upper half
of the channel. Instead, Al and Company have been remarkably
"restrained". Only a steady 10%. Unlike last fall when steady
pumping along with massive bursts of Feed helped stocks, this summer is
acting just like last summer. The Feed has been increasing excess Feed sporadically,
with a gradual rise overall, since May. Obviously, the Gang of 22 (Fed
primary dealers) has something better to do with the cash, like jamming
bonds for instance. This kind of bond market jamming, with heavy buying by
the mental institutions from their stock sales proceeds, smells like the
same kind of panic that marked the final stage of the bull market in
stocks. It will end badly, but we'll leave that discussion for another
time. The main thing for now is that without a much bigger buildup of
sideline cash, the stock market ain't goin' nowhere. What will it take to
build up that cash? A big volume selling climax.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, dropped below its recent range last week signaling a down phase and acceleration of the downtrend. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) also turned down, confirming that this is a new 6-7 week cycle down phase following an extremely weak sideways up phase. The 29 day rate of change remains weak and in a downtrend. This indicator should stabilize and turn up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle bottoms. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) is meandering at weak levels. A solid uptick is required to signal reversal. The projected low has dropped to 855-75. The VIX is now at 38.33. While some poodits, and even fellow bears, are calling that extreme, on the inverted scale chart, it is only just below the center of the Stool Band projection. This is not extreme, considering normal cyclical influences. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal will not be generated until the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. At this point that will be a reading of more than 50. In truth, we won't know where the extreme is, until after it finally turns. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle
oscillator continues to drift lower, confirming the downtrend. The trading
stoolicator is "bottomish". Sorry, not good enough. If it
doesn't uptick, you must acquit...the bear that is. The indicator going
flat at this level signals a stable downtrend. The short cycle oscillator
downticked and remains on a sell signal. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is
flat in negative territory, confirming that the trend remains down. The low is due
at any time over the next 18 days with a target of 855 to 875 on a closing basis. Depending
on the degree of panic, the intraday low will be 50 to 75 points lower,
which means a print of 800 can't be ruled out. Amazingly enough, the
decline held last week at multiple fiber nacho barf levels. Below 900,
those lines start to really spread out. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/12/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Wow! Look at the symmetry of the weekly chart.
Aside from that, looking at the cycle channels and intermediate cycle
oscillator, it does appear that an intermediate low is near. These things
normally end with a spike of 50-75 points below the Stool Bands. Stool
Bands are nice straight projections, unlike Bullinger Bands which
are all jiggly and jaggly and impossible to interpret. Doc thinks
Bullinger Bands are a joke. You would be doing yourself a favor to stop
kidding yourself, and simply use a straight edged stock proctoscope to
draw linear channels. Or maybe Doc is just too stoolpid to understand the
rationale behind those wiggly herky-jerky meandering Bullinger Bands. Nasgap Charts The 10-13 week cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator look bottomish. Scray, huh? Yes, but not a signal until they turn up. If they simple meander at these levels, the market is trending. And an ugly trend 'tis it, 'tis. Same thing goes for the 6 month cycle ozzie. A flat ozzie means nothing, simply a trend confirmation until the direction changes. The short cycle oscillator
downticked and is ending a weak up phase. An
important intermediate low of 1250-1300 is due in 6 to 21 trading days. 1365 is a
fiber nacho barf level. Once that's blown look for 1288, then 1240. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/12/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn The
weekly charts says the market is trending and that 1200 could be in the
cards. Yes, even triple digits eventually. AM Edition Features (Previous) The yield trend is still
down, but there are hints that the decline is coming to an end. The keys
are in the 29 day rate of change and intermediate cycle oscillator. When
they turn up, we'll know the bottom is in. The
indicators say the dirty SOX are in a 10-13 week cycle sideways up phase
which began in late June. Another breakdown is out there within a week or
two. What did Doc
tell you? The first precept of stock proctology -- when Wall Street
universally loves something, it is by definition, wrong. Once again, here
is proof. Until a month ago, The Street was wildly bullish on consumer
stocks. JJ "I will cream you" Cramer, was yelling day
after day on his radio program, "Buy the stocks you see in the
supermarket." Every poodit on crapvision said the same. Now
just look at the mess they made. As Doc
warned before he left on vacation, when the institutions whose buying
caused the uptrend in small craps want out, it's going to get very ugly.
It has, and it will get worse. Wow, energy
stocks got ugly last week. Is this the bottom, or has the uptrend been
broken? Stay tuned. Retail will
either find support at the bottom of the major trend channel, or crash.
The ozzies say, "What support?" The telecoms
are in swupperville. (sideways up phase, or conslolidation) But they are
short term overbought, a dangerous condition. Networkers
are in a weak 10-13 week cycle swup, but the short cycle is overbought. Looks like
the top is in, in the quintessential bubble stocks, the homebuilders. The
10-13 week cycle indicators rolled over last week, so a decisive breakdown
looks to be just ahead. There are so many interesting charts out there, I don't know where to start, but only have time for a few this morning. More tomorrow. Wally's
Stores- Wow, look at that top. Long live the king. He daid. Next stop, 50. Everybody is
bullish on Mr. Bill. The Street's final safe haven. We know what happens
when everybody is bullish on a stock, now don't we? This intermediate swup
is about to end. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness The intermediate cycle
oscillator says Buck wants to go into a sideways up phase. The short cycle
ozzie has turned down. Long Term Mo is dead in the water. The downtrend is
in a resting phase. OOOps!. Broke down this morning. Are we in crash mode? Golden Stool Gold stocks are approaching
the moment of truth. While the secular trend is up, the 18 month-2 year
cycle is in a sideways down phase. That could keep a lid on any upside for
the next two months. On the other hand, if the 10-13 week cycle ozzies
turn up in conjunction with a move through the 150 level, the uptrend
should accelerate. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
When
Doc left town two weeks ago, the cmap on the Dow for the 10-13 week cycle
was 8650, with a low due, ah, ummm, right about, uh... now. Zo, having hit
the cmap, and being in the bottom window time frame, Doc zhould be bullizh,
right?
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
