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10 Minute Bar Charts 4/26/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and PM Outlook 4/29/02 The market did not cooperate at all with the Pre-Market forecast as it tries to hold on to minor gains. Both the 5 hour and 1 day ozzies are in swups on the Nas and SPX. Upside cmaps were only 1674 and 1077. The 5 hr and 1 day cycle lows look to have been at 10:30. It now looks like the 5 hr high should be at 1 PM and the 1 day high around 2:30. There are no buy signals yet on the 8 day ozzies and the cmaps are unclear because of the steep slope of the trend. On the 13 day cycle the cmaps have moved up to 1660 and 1060. Getting a little close for comfort. There are no buy signals on the 13 day ozzie either however. In February of 2001 the short term cmaps became irrelevant as the market simply trended lower with brief swups, day after day. Under current circumstances, you can assume the trend is your friend, so long as prices stay within the current equal vertical width channels on the hourly basis charts. That would be about 1675 and 1078 on the Nas and SPX. Pre Market 4/29/02 Fucutures are up but still below fair value an hour before the open. Extreme weakness at the bell Friday was part of a picture where all cycles were heading lower in concert. Cycle time counts are a little tricky now because of the steepness of the trend. Best guess is that the 5 hr and one day cycle lows will be between 11:00 and noon on the Nas and at the open and again at 11 AM on the SPX. There's also a shorter 2-3 hour cycle which could generate a bounce at the open. Cmaps on the initial down move are 1650 on the Nas and 1073 on the SPX. The SPX has already exceeded the 8 day cycle cmap of 1080, indicating bigger cycles are squashing those of shorter duration. The 13 day cycle cmap is 1070 based on hourly charts. On the Nas the 13 day cmap, based on the hourlies is 1635. The market is not far from a 13 day cycle low that will lead to at least a consolidation. At the futures close, they've managed to hold on to most of their gains, but are basically neutral, with the 1 day cycle ozzies topping out. They should have no impact on the outlook, and reinforce the view that after a brief bounce, the market should work lower into the 11AM-noon time frame. Disaster and Denial(4/27/02) It was a disastrous, demoralizing week for bulls. The poodits on crapvision were bleating like stuck pigs Friday. Amazingly, most of the analcysts, with the exception of Business Week's venerable Bill Wollman, and trader Art Crashin, were still bullish, still talking about being patient and staying focused on the long haul. Same old, same old, lies and horsecrap. Portfolio sphincters it seems, simply aren't interested in preserving your capital, ever. They are firmly committed to taking you to the poorhouse, as long as they can skim their 2% every year in the process. The sphincters have no idea what's really wrong with the market. They blame the Middle East, or they throw out the usual excuses about the New York Attorney General's and now the SEC's investigation into the lying, cheating, and stealing borkers. Or they blame the fact that most of the GDP growth was due to inventory building and military spending, or they complain that earnings growth is too slow, or that it's great but the market is preoccupied with the laundry list of other troubles listed above. None of the mainstream analcysts
and poodits are paying attention to what's really wrong. It's a bear
market. Stocks remain obscenely overvalued. The credit bubble has ended.
Financial system liquidity, which is the lifeblood of the market, is
shrinking. The housing boom is over, the real estate boom is over. Meanwhile the Head Mohel over at Mohel Lynch (Oy Do We Got Tips For You!), apologizes for Mohel's analcysts' emails complaining about the pieces of crap they were recommending to clients. But the Head Mohel made no apologies for the lousy "tips" themselves, which cut off a beloved part of millions of investors' portfolios - their money. Mohel's track record of stranding investors at the top, while shoveling the stock out to them right out of Mohel's own trading accounts, is second to none. Yet this scandal goes unmentioned in the mainstream press. The media gets the part about the investment banking conflicts, but they don't report the most obvious part, that Wall Street's primary business is pump and dump, and screw the public. While sentiment has begun to get less bullish among the trading pros, the option volatility indexes are still no worse than neutral, after months of decline in the market. The same goes for the putzcall ratio. The 5 week moving average of the putzcall, which is the ratio of trading volume in puts to calls, has risen only to .84, which is dead neutral for a bear market. Based on the curve of this index over the last couple years, the next good intermediate bottom probably won't come until it reaches .95 or more. That will take a couple more weeks of sharp declines, by which time the SPX is likely to be below 1000.
Dow Inflatables
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The SPX was down 15. The 17 day rate of change, a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is at the same level from which the last two market bounces sprang. The 6-7 week cycle oscillator superimposed on the chart has started to roll over but there's no sell signal yet. Late sell signals are usually extremely bearish. The index is at the bottom of its short term downtrend channel. The 29 day rate of change, representing the 10-13 week cycle, is at the same level from which it turned up in February. Further downside from here might signal downside acceleration. Short term centered moving average projections moved down, with near term projections of 1060 due within 3 days. The index is on the lower trendline of the short term linear regression channel. This is where it gets real tricky. A lot of damage can be done in 3 days, especially if the downtrend accelerates, but by the same token, upturns can be sudden and can lead to one of those patented bear shooting rallies. It's time for shorts to begin thinking about at least protecting a portion of hard won profits. The VIX closed at 24.64, a big jump from Thursday's 23.05. On the inverted scale chart, VIX has now dropped to the center of the stool band, suggesting the decline still has a long way to go. The last big short term rally came from the 27-28 area, and a big intermediate swing rally probably won't come until the index is well above 30. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs.
The 5-6 month cycle oscillator has turned decisively lower with shorter cycles now in gear. The 10-13 week cycle could bottom at any time over the next 3 weeks, with the current projection now 1050. The short cycle oscillator is at the lowest level since early September, showing a market that is extraordinarily weak, but one that could bounce at any time. The poodits will now be singing the Dover Sole song. As all stoolies know, there's no such thing as Dover Sole in a bear market.
Fibo support levels are 1075-80, then 1062 and 1045.
The weekly chart of the SPX has always been a simple but elegant reminder that the bear market never ended. The secular trend channel continues to steepen. The SPX is headed for triple digits. This decline, and this bear market is a long way from over.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 4/26/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas lost nearly 50 and broke down a huge distributional top. The short cycle oscillator is now at the lowest level it's been since the bear market began, below even September. This is a powerful decline, and while it may bounce soon, there's no sign of a real bottom. The 5-6 month cycle oscillator has made a downturn from below neutral, usually a sign of impending disaster. The 13 day cycle has overwhelmed the 8 day cycle. A low is due in the 13 on Monday or Tuesday. The centered moving average projection for that cycle now points at 1590-1650.
Fibo support levels are at 1660, and 1550.
Nasgap Weekly Week
after week for nearly 5 months we've watched as the Nas has shinnied down
the upper band of the long term cycle, with Doc warning repeatedly that
this was a developing major top. Friday the top broke down. Cyclically,
this period is most like October 2000. Over the next 3 to 6 months the Nas
should drop into triple digits. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 4/26/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Bonds
rallied as stocks sold off, sending yields lower again. The issue of the
longer term outlook is growing more uncertain. In the short run, all signs
continue to point lower for bond yields. 5% is the key. The oscillators
are poised for an upturn from that level. If it doesn't materialize, that
would be a deflationary signal. The rollover in the intermediate cycle oscillator on the weekly chart suggests the possibility of a decline in yields. I stress the word "possibility" because if the 5% area holds, the uptrend would be intact, and the signal could be false, just as it was in April 1999. As long as the long term cycle indicator is rising, the assumption must be that the long term trend remains up, and that any pullbacks will be limited.
Sucktor Watch - Bonkers The market
goes where the bonkers go. They're going down. Spreads are narrowing,
credit problems will loom large, and volume will dry up. Dirty Dirty Sox Shorts in SOX finally had
some fun last week. The short interest in the stocks remains too high, so
it's hard to say how long the fun will last. If portfolio sphincters do
enough dumping to break the 490 area, it could be explosive diarrhea time. Stoolwethers- The Crisco Skid Nobody talks much about this one any more. No wonder. It's headed for 11 again.
Microprice- The Long Term View Microprice has broken out
of a triangle nearly two years in the making. The price implication is
zero, or 20, depending on how you look at it. OK, maybe not zero. Doc
can't wait to hear the poodits crying about this one. Stock O' The Day - BBY The game is
over in one of the Retail leaders of "this bull market". The
stock is beginning to weaken after months of distribution. If you have an idea for a Stock O', send it to [email protected]. Include some original reason for why you think the stock is deserving. Be clever! Anything longer than 25 words- automatic disqualification! And please, no penny stocks. Feel free to request follow-ups too. Uncle Buck's Illness The grave diggers are losing their grip on the coffin. If they don't regain control, it could crash. The downtrend is accelerating, heading for 110 or lower..
Golden Stool Day in and day out the message has been the same here - that the gold stocks could break out at any time and that the move would be powerful. Buy signals such as those Friday, with a running start from such high levels suggest a rocket launch. And remember, there's no such thing as overbought in a bull market.
The weekly gold chart flashed an intermediate buy signal this week suggesting the POG is going to go a lot higher a lot sooner than anyone thinks. The upturn at a high level, on top of an already strong uptrend signals acceleration.
Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Previous complete issue with all features Welcome To New Subscribers Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. You may note some subtle differences in style now that this is no longer a free service. The perspective is still bearish, but it will have a more balanced approach than my message board ravings. You won't see me screaming "BUY" about anything except perhaps gold, but you will see stronger indications of areas and times when I think it might be a good idea to avoid being short. And I promise that I will lose my temper from time to time to keep you entertained! There's also a new feature, Doc's By Request Stock O' The Day. If you have a stock you're interested in, send an email to [email protected], naming the stock, and why you think Doc should look at it, in 25 words or less. 26 words, and you're disqualified! Those that look interesting, Doc will try to feature here within the next day or two. If you have suggestions about other features you'd like to see, send them along to [email protected]. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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