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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. The Pre-Market and Mid-Day Updates will not be published on Monday. Regular publication will resume Monday Night. Weak End Anals (9/13/02) Here's your weak end review of the short and the long of it. Long, as in "term" of course. In brief, we want to be aware, and "beware" of low volume on Monday for the Yom Kippur Jewish holiday. Short covering may be a disproportionate share of the trading. And of course, it's scam week. That's always wild. We also need to be wary of a possible 6-7 week cycle low shaping up over the next few days. Whether that comes from here or somewhat lower, it should be good for one of those day and a half wonder rallies that gets everyone all excited. If the market should sprout a woody, let 'em squeeze it. Once they're done, it's all down from there. One thing we should be mindful of is the fact that a lot of players are expecting September and October to be really bad. Crapvision constantly reminds us of the fact that September is the worst month of the year. Human nature being what it is, if you "know" September and October will be bad, what do you do? You sell in advance, naturally. So a lot of selling has been done in advance. Worse, a lot of short selling has been done in anticipation of the "horrible" month we all know is coming. Which brings us to Precept Number Three of Stock Proctology. If everybody "knows" something is going to happen, it ain't gonna. Because they have already done in advance the very action which would cause it. If you and everybody and their brother has already done a lot of selling in anticipation of the event. When the time comes there aren't any sellers, or at least not enough to cause the big drop everyone expected. So in fact, it doesn't happen, and sometimes, the opposite occurs. Just something to keep in mind as we complete the remainder of what is supposed to be a horrible time in the market. The Feed drained $1.25 billion. They did $3 billion in 6 day repos, while $4.25 billion in overnight repos expired. There are no expirations Monday. With so little change, the Feed comments below are an instant replay of Thursday.
The Feedometer, which theoretically measures excess Feed available for bond or stock market jamming, remains in the lower portion of its 3 month range, and is still downtrending. This is not a picture of support for the markets. Rather it is one of caution and indecision. Nothing they have done has helped the stock market. It is a hopeless cause, and the inflationary forces from excess money printing are building. These guys are in a box, and there's no way out. However, they are down at a level which has brought on some feeding in the last month. Let's see what they do now.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK The VIX dropped to 39.31. The 30.96 reading on August 22 was the 10-13 week cycle high. The indicator is still in the middle of the Stool Band confirming the rangebound market. The 17 day rate of change, a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is still downtrending, but the 29 day rate of change proxy for the 10-13 week cycle remains stuck in neutral. These need to get in gear in order to have a big move. Or any kind of move. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red line) dropped to the level of the September low. This is a constrained indicator. It can't go much lower. As Doc mentioned yesterday, this could be a sign of extreme weakness, or it could simply mean a delayed cycle low. We should at least see a two day pop from this level within a couple of days. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue)
is unambiguous. The angle of descent is the steepest since April of 2000,
when it was in the midst of a violent crash. It should be at least 3 to 6 weeks before a low in this cycle.
Any bounces would be within the context of the 10-13 week cycle down
phase. The trading stoolicator which is currently configured to mimic the 10-13 week cycle, is heading down. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator topped is still in the top zone. It can fall a long way, and this could turn into a historic decline. However, be aware of the possibility that this is a sideways down phase which would delay the Big One until the following cycle, fooling everyone who expects an October crash and bottom. Keep in mind that there are many on the Street expecting a horrible September and October, not just hard core bears. The market is rarely so obliging as to give the majority exactly what it expects, precisely because they've positioned for it in advance by doing what selling they could. Precisely because of that, a stage manager engineered jam or two is likely on the way down, in particular when the July lows are tested. The short cycle oscillator continues upward but it is slowing. The best short sales are usually when this indicator gets to 70 or higher, and the 10-13 week oscillator is declining. A failure to reach that level before turning down can be a sign of extreme weakness when the bigger cycles are negative. This is a possible precursor to a crash, which must be watched. Like so much of what we see, this indicator is currently in hesitation mode. The 6 month cycle oscillator remains in an up phase. The slope of the up phase does not appear to be positive at this point, and won't be unless the market breaks out above 925. Doc thinks the weak up phase will lead to mind boggling damage when the cycle phase turns down. The fact that the cycle oscillator is still rising confirms that this is still the up phase. It is "up" in name only so far. For now, mixed cyclicality
suggests a continuation of the choppy trading range, bass-o-matic market.
The market has the potential to crash but it's still not in gear to do so.
It also has the potential to remain in the current trading range for weeks
on end. That's the more likely scenario.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets
The weekly chart shows the SPX just hanging around near its lower secular
trend channel with the 65 month cycle heading up. Make no mistake, that
trend channel can be heading lower than currently drawn. But it
could be weeks or months before we see that come to fruition. Patience
will be a virtue for bears. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/13/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas was the strongest area of the market on Friday. The 17 day rate of change is still in a downtrend, but the 29 day rate of change isn't. So we go nowhere. The 10-13 week cycle is in a down phase that should last 3-6 weeks. The 6-7 and 10-12 month cycles are still headed up, but the slope of the up phase is flat, at best. The 4 week cycle is in a sideways up phase. That's a non-issue. The 6-7 week cycle looks to be within a few days of a low. The short cycle ozzie downticked but not enough to flash a sell signal. If it turns down, down the chute we go. If it turns up, we get a pop for a few days. It's
scam week, and a lot of people won't be around on Monday, ingredients for
a possible unpleasant surprise pop. It will be a shorting opportunity if
it comes.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets
The Nasty is bumping along at secular trends support levels on the long
term chart.. Eventually that will give way and the channel will turn
lower. The 6 month cycle indicator is teasing us with a hint that that may
be near. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/13/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Department of Yes We Have No Inflation Don't think Al
isn't watching this. He is and he's scared stoolless. This is a major
uptrend. Get on board the inflation train boyz and gurlz. Cuz we'z goin'
fer a ride! Golden Stool The 10-13 week
cmaps are pointing to 150-160. Once it gets there, that could be it for
many moons. Doc is thinking about taking profits at that level, and
waiting for a good pullback. He will let you know. The long term
view says the breakout will not come on this move. It may make a minor new
high, but should then pullback and consolidate. Likewise for
the metal. It could settle into a trading rage for a year or so. Be
prepared.
The bond market meltup goes on. Yields will either double bottom here, and
that will be the end of it, or break down to the long term cmaps of
3.70-3.80, then turn.
Based on the long term chart, this is where secular trend support comes
in, although a break of 20-23 bps would be consistent with a final
blowoff. Uncle Buck's Illness
Buck looks like he must have seen a good looking young nurse on Friday. He
should be pretty much played out after that performance. Of course, if the
central banks are behind it, it's like Viagra for a few days.
Unfortunately, the long term chart says Buck may have some get up and go
for another month or two as he hangs around that long, long term
trendline.. Suctor Watch- Long Term Aerospace- Mid-air stall.
Could crash land. Bonkers- Robbers returned
to scene of crime. Now on the lam. Consumer- Bear market has
barely begun. First rally ending soon. Drug Criminals return to
scene of crime. Get beaten back by angry old people like Dr. Stool. Retail- Or Tall tale by
gummit? Intermediate up phase vs. overhead supply. Supply wins,
eventually. HMO's- Crime against the
people is politically unpopular, and financial suicide. Next big move is
down. Housing Bubble- When will
the bubble end?. When wi-l-l-l the bu-u-ble ennnnnd? How bout when that
big fat hunchback falls over? Energy- Shrub as prez, Dick
as veep not good for their buds. It's called political backlash. When will
Wall Street get it? Mid-crap- Back in the
Spring, all the poodits told us to buy this stuff because it was
undervalued and in a stealth bull market. Good timing. Gypsies, tramps and
thieves. Small crap- They're still
telling us to buy these. 14th Precept of Stock Proctology. Small craps are
small for a reason. There is no pony in the pile of horseshit. Dirty SOX- Still on floor
and no one will pick them up. Soft Where- They're
pretending about recovery again. But, on the web, soft where is like air.
It's everywhere, and it's free. Just download and go. Nutworkers- What happens
when a secular downtrend is broken? Cover the eyes of women and children.
This index is going to zero. Telecommies- This little
bounce is like an Irish wake. Let's hoist of few for good old LU. Stoolwethers Citicorpse- Say kaddish for
Sandy and Ron. Fannie breaks wind on way
to 60. General Custer- From hero
to goat in one easy market transition. Jack, Jack, how little we knew ye. Other General- Wow. What a
mess. Cmap says 34 next. Market Maker Management -
Turn out the lights. The party's over. PiG- Lipstick stays ion to
98. Wally- Original channeling
stock. Now stuck. Mr. Bill loses more bills.
Looking at 35 next year. IBM- Indeed you do. All the
way to 45. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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