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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
The Grand Experiment (1/24/02) The market gapped open on Thursday, was strong through mid day, and spent the rest of the day fighting not to close the gap. The bulls were finally successful at holding on to about half the gains, and keeping the Nasdaq above the gap, thereby setting up the possibility of forming a Flying Turd Formation on the chart. One of Dr. Stool's rare chart patterns, these patterns form when the market gaps up one day, and gaps down the next. Whether that will happen or not, we'll know in the morning. The Nasdaq 100 Fucutures did gap down on the opening of the after hours session, but a lot can happen in 15 hours. By the end of the day the Dow managed to hold on to a gain of 65 at 9796, after a mid day high of 9856. The Nas sold of from a high of 1960, to close at 1942.58, up 20, and the SPX was only able to hang on to a gain of 3.97, closing at 1132.15, after hitting 1139.50 earlier. It was a see saw battle all day, and although the end result made it look like the bulls won this one, intraday oscillators were flashing sell signals as the day drew to a close. The futures have done nothing to contradict that so far in the evening session. FBI* Director Algae Greenspew was out cheerleading the market. It's really quite a spectacle watching the Fed jump through rings of fire in this experimental circus act of managing the markets. I'm old enough to remember when a Fed Chairman never said anything. Even if the old Fed didn't have a clue either, the unrevealed policy at least carried the appearance of dignity. This one doesn't, it loudly advertises that the fix is in, and it loudly advertises its incompetence to some of us. Still the portfolio sphincters who make decisions about what to do with your money are even dumber, and they will believe anything that suggests stocks will go up. When Greenweenie's comments a couple weeks ago were "misinterpreted" by the market- simple, just be a little more cheerful and the markets will be happier. Ah the power of positive thinking. From my perspective the market itself will tell us everything we need to know about the market. We don't need a FEED chairman to make happy talk to tell us whether something's rotten or not. And there's nothing more rotten than a central bank blatantly manipulating the market, and perpetuating a mania. One of these days that grand experiment is going to blow up the laboratory, and all the experimental subjects with it. *Financial Bubble Inc. SPX Charts There's still no sign that this upturn is anything but a short term blip. The VIX continues to indicate the bullish complacency typical of tops and initial stages of decline, just like last summer. Momentum remains neutral as well. Only a strong upside follow through Friday would do enough to trigger momentum buy signals. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it.
Nasdaq Charts The short cycle (up to 4 weeks) is up. With everything else weak, that should manifest as a sideways waffle. The short cycle indicators could top out in another day or two. We might see this thing bouncing around for a couple weeks in the 1875-1975 range. If that happens, a huge move to the downside could begin as early as mid-February.
The big daddy institutional darling of them all, WMT, has been one of the strongest players lately, especially after K-Mart went Chap 11. Keep an eye on this one as a sign of the overall health of the market. The recent move looks for all the world like a breakout, but we stoolies recognize a potential Whopsaw when we see one. If WMT can keep rolling on from here, the bear case could be in trouble. Or it might just represent a "flight to quantity," as Fleck would say. For my money, it's a whopsaw. We should know within a week. The stock would need to get back below 58.5.
Then there's that other "great name in e-tailing" the amazin' Amazon. There's a whole bunch of short term mo buy signals, along with a blowthrough of the long term channel projection. Either the long wave has begun to tilt up slightly, or this too is a Whopsaw. The intermediate cycle indicator at the top of the chart says this move is a fakeout that'll be quickly reversed. It better be, or we're looking at 1999 redux.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/24/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/24/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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