|
10 Minute Bar Charts will return on July 15 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Dr. Stool will be traveling from June 29 to July 14. The Anals will not be regular during that time. An abbreviated version of the nightly commentary will be published when internet access is available. Doc will post a message on the Stool Pigeons Wire on days the Anals will be published. Intraday updates will not be published. Subscription Renewals are coming up! Did you subscribe nearly 90 days ago? If you want to renew, do nothing. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed automatically on the 90 day anniversary and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. From The Road (7/4/02) Hair Club For Men Rally- Here's a capsule summary of the indexes, with updated cycle summary charts. The stage managers played to a small, easily manipulated audience Friday, and made the most of it. Doc is not impressed by the shenanigans.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, turned up. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) suggests this is probably a swup which began a couple weeks ago, and will die an early death. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) upticked, but not enough to be convincing. The final portion of the downleg, when the sharpest losses are usually seen, looked like it was under way, but now it looks like it is still ahead of us. The projected low ranges from 890 to 920. The 29 day rate of change remains weak. This indicator should stabilize and turn up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle bottoms. The VIX is now at 30.21, down from 33 on Wednesday. On the inverted scale chart, it is in the center of the Stool Band, playing the tuba. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A major buy signal will not be generated until the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. The current action is consistent with a short cycle rally. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle
oscillator and trading stoolicator are still drifting lower, confirming the downtrend. The short cycle oscillator
downticked in spite of the market's rally Wednesday. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator also
downticked and the trend remains down. The low is due anywhere from 4 to
19 days from now with a target of 890 to 930 on a closing basis. Depending
on the degree of panic, the intraday low will be 50 to 75 points lower,
which means a print of 800 can't be ruled out. I'm not ignoring what
happened Friday. It just hasn't shown enough to be convincing that it was
for real. The rally was cut short just
beyond the 50% regurgitation of the late June decline. There are two fibo
reflux levels at 1000. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/5/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 10-13 week cycle
oscillator and the trading stoolicator upticked but are still in downtrends in spite of
the rally. The short cycle oscillator upticked and continued
trending weakly higher in a sideways up phase. An
important intermediate low of 1275 is due in 4 to 19 trading days. As with
the SPX, there's not enough evidence yet to support the idea that the low
is in. 1453 is
the 50% retracement level of the decline from late June. Likely stopping
areas are here and 1470-80 zone, where there are multiple fibo
regurgitation levels. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/5/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) Long Bong Hit -Returning July 15 Suctor Watch - Returning July 15 Stoolwethers - Returning July 15 Stock O'der Day - Returning July 15 Stock O'der will resume when Doc returns from vacation. Many tanks for your excellent suggestions! Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness Returning July 15 Golden Stool The sideways
down phase in the 10-13 week cycle continues, with a retest of the June
low in sight. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
The
Dow broke its downtrend channel. The 8-13 day cycle
appears to be topping out a sideways up phase. The
4-5 week cycle turned up. Doc will bet it's a swup. The 6-7 week cycle has just
topped out, and the 10-13 cycle is bottoming. The 10-13 week cycle projection remains
8700 on a closing basis, and the cycle low window is open over the next
three weeks. The Dow should establish its low a few days to a week before
the broad market.
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
