|
10 Minute Bar Charts 3/28/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Free trial access to the Anals will end on March 31, 2002. To access the Anals on or after April 1, you must subscribe. When you subscribe through Paypal, you will immediately receive a user name and password which will allow you to access the current issue. If you have previously sent a donation through Paypal, and you would like a complimentary subscription equivalent to the amount of your contribution, send an email to [email protected]. Include your name, your email address, and if possible the date of your contribution(s) through Paypal. Upon confirming your information, I will send you a user name and password. Allow 1 week for processing. By requesting and accepting a complimentary subscription, you are agreeing that you have read and agreed to the Terms and Conditions, which basically says that you can't sue Dr. Stool, or Capitalstool.com, or its owner, no matter what! (If you emailed me this week, thank you! I will send your user name and password this weekend.) Finally, if you prefer not to use on-line payment, you can subscribe by mail. The annual subscription rate for payment by check is $99.00. Print the subscription form at the bottom of the Terms and Conditions and mail it in to the address on the form, with your check, of course. I will email you a user name and password. Allow 2 weeks for processing payments by mail. Thank you for your support! Doc Stoolies- See Subscription Information Above! Tonight's update is abbreviated, Happy Passover and Happy Easter! Weekly Charts and commentary will be posted Saturday. The market drifted higher for most of the day before falling at the bell. The Dow and other indicators have met both upside and downside centered moving average projections for all shorter cycles in recent days. Short cycles are now juxtaposed, with the 4 week trying to turn up, the 6-7 gliding into a low, and the 10-13 starting to top out. Momentum indicators are neutral or weakening. This may be a case of we won't know when the market will break out of its range until it does, but in the meantime it behooves us to continue looking for advance indications. In the very short run, over the next few trading days, intraday indicators are hinting that the lows of this week may be retested, but cycle alignments do not appear favorable for a breakdown.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX, a sentiment indicator based on options volatility, closed at 19.03, yet another new low and again at the lowest level since August 31, 2000. The SPX dropped 15% in the 6 weeks following that reading. However, that was after it had stayed below 20 with the market churning for 2 weeks. The index has been at or below 20 w eek now. The question is, can we rely on the precedent? The indicator has only "worked" for four years. Four years is not much history. But the level of animal spirits seems to match what's going in with this indicator. Price, and price based indicators are always the final arbiter. We see negative divergences on the charts going back months. If the market turns down before the divergences are resolved, these rallies have been nothing more distribution. That is Wall Street's business, and they are masters of it. The 17 day rate of change, a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is headed down, but there's no thrust to the downside. The 29 day rate of change, representing the 10-13 week cycle, remains on the cusp of confirming an early downturn in that all important cycle. Wall Street thinks that the market is in a bull market correction or consolidation. Looking at the linear regression channel going back to the January 2001 high gives a different impression. By any standard of technical analysis, the broadest of the most widely followed market averages has never passed the test of being in a bull market. Do not be taken in by Wall Street's Big Lie, especially when it is a near unanimous consensus. When the Street is unanimous about something, it's at the end of the trend, not the beginning.
This is a critical juncture on the cycle chart. Intermediate cycle indicators have begun to turn down at relatively low levels. A downturn from these levels normally indicates severe weakness ahead. The 1 year cycle up phase has been under way since the September 2001 lows, and is now completing a second top. The top building process usually takes weeks. This one has been under way for 3 weeks, and with all the cycle juxtaposition, it may stay here for another 3 weeks.. Time is on the side of the bears, but based on the position of the short cycle oscillators, a short cycle up phase, lasting one to three weeks, looks likely to intervene before the top is complete.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings of the market. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 3/28/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Short cycles are at a
low. The market will bounce or continue in a range before the intermediate
top is complete and the 6 month cycle oscillator turns down. The
six month cycle oscillator remains weak in
negative territory, and precariously close to a sell signal. This indicates an extremely weak up phase,
and it will be a precursor to complete collapse if the indicator turns
down without further improvement from here. The next fib level on the
rally is 1860. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 3/28/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The gold stocks paused today. Measures of the 10-13 week cycle are early in the up phase. Short cycles are toppy and need to consolidate however. That could be just a sideways move. This still looks like a very powerful intermediate up phase, in the early stages of a long term secular bull market in gold.
Bond yields may be ready to break out again. The short cycle is coming into a low over the next few days, and the intermediate wave is solidly up. It's not a given, but a move coming out of this configuration has the potential to be explosive.
Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle Buck limped out of his sickbed, but he won't get far in this condition. The relatives are beginning to gather at the bedside, hoping buck can stand up straight one more time.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK (Sorry about the bull.)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK
