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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02, 9/13/02, 9/16/02, 9/17/02, 9/18/02, 9/19/02, 9/20/02, 9/23/02, 9/24/02, 9/25/02, 9/26/02, 9/27/02, 9/30/02 10/1/02, 10/2/02, 10/3/02, 10/4/02, 10/7/02, 10/8/02, 10/9/02, 10/10/02, 10/11/02, 10/14/02, 10/15/02, 10/16/02, 10/17/02, 10/18/02, 10/21/02, 10/22/02, 10/23/02, 10/24/02, 10/25/02, 10/28/02, 10/29/02, 10/30/02, 10/31/02 11/1/02, 11/4/02, 11/5/02, 11/6/02, 11/7/02, 11/8/02, 11/11/02, 11/12/02, 11/13/02, 11/14/02, 11/15/02, 11/18/02, 11/19/02, 11/20/02, 11/21/02, 11/22/02, 11/25/02, 11/26/02, 11/27/02, 11/29/02
 Doc's view of the Street. |
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American
Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. This publication is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the estimates and projections presented. The market may or may not meet the projections. Stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Yadda yadda. How's your motha? Be a Johnny Applestool! Help spread the Stool! Feel free to repost snippets from the Anals on message boards around the web. Just give a link back! Many tanks - Doc PM Update 12/3/02 12:45 PM The 5 hour - 1 day cycle low appears to be in, right on schedule. Let's start looking for the high of that wave between 1:30 and 2:30. It's too early to forecast the upside, but it should be a swup, hopefully no higher than 926-27. Might look something like this. 5-8 Day Cycle______ 2-3 Day Cycle_______ 5 Hr-1 Day Cycle
Pre Market Update 12/3/02 9:15 AM Fucutures are coming into a cycle low as the pre market session comes to a close. The cmap is 927.50. After a bounce in the first hour, look for prices to head lower into the 1 day cycle low estimated at 12:30. Monday's Markets (12/2/02)
Intraday - They opened with a major blitz that carried the SPX to a retest of the August high. It failed. This action was not about cycles. It was about panic and manipulation. On clearing 950, buy stops were triggered, setting off a final stampede that wiped the slate clean. It's a safe bet that the stage managers shorted into the rally with everything they had, happily taking short positions form terrified public shorts. This was classic distribution. A true work of art by the masters of the trade. They had held below 941 for two days. When that broke, the giant Whoopsaw was on, and within an hour the finger was in on the charts. Within the next hour, the entire gain was reversed and then some. They bounced beginning at 11 AM, doing a 3 hour wave into a low just after 2 PM. The way things lined up, that was the 5 hour cycle low and probably the 1 day cycle low. Look for a little upside follow through in the first half hour Tuesday. The cmap is 937. The 5 hour cycle low would be due around 12:30, give or take an hour. The cycle map below is based on 8 minute bars. Update will be posted at 9:15 AM. 5-8 Day Cycle______ 2-3 Day Cycle_______ 5 Hr-1 Day Cycle
All Aboard! (12/2/02) If Doc didn't know that such a thing is impossible in our well regulated securities markets, why, he could have sworn that yesterday's market was manipulated. But of course, we all know that the idea of a market being manipulated by "non-free market forces" is just a paranoid delusion of whiny, sore-assed loser bears. Both the Fed, the exchanges, and the market making firms have only one goal, to insure free, fair and liquid markets. God bless free market capitalism, and God Bless the United States of America, land of the free markets. Of course, if you are into pro wrestling, the sheer artistry of the takedown was awe inspiring. Why, that kick to the bear's head almost look real. Doc could have sworn he saw blood gushing from a cut over the eye. But once the stage managers had suckered every last bear, except two, into covering their shorts on the "breakout", they closed the lid and... The readings on the Dickarms, aka the TRIN, or for us old timers who remember Bunker Ramo, the STKS, in the first half hour were mind boggling. Some stoolies claim to have seen a reading of ZEE ROW. Of course, that's impossible. You don't believe it? Here's the data from Quote.com.
If that's not hysteria, then my name ain't Stool. OK, you all know that Doc has been writing since November 4 that the ingredients were in place for a top. Maybe Monday was the final blowoff. Gawd, I sure hope so. How much more of this abuse can we take? But for all the sound and fury, the Sphincters Index stands just a handful of points above where they were on November 4. Doc believes that the indicators, while early as usual, will turn out to be right again, and that patience will be repaid. There's an enormous degree of complacency out there. Sentiment is lopsidedly bullish. Even bears think the market will go higher before it will go lower. This rally is going to trap everybody. After hitting the latest 4-7
week cycle projection of 9000, the Dow reversed, and the 4-7 week cycle
indicator flashed a sell signal. It joins the 10-13 week cycle indicator
in heading down. There are still two to five weeks remaining in that
cycle, plenty of time for a significant downturn. The Feed had a small net drain of $250 million on the addition of $6.75 billion in overnight repos, while $7 billion in 5 day repos expired. That's 3 small drains in a row. The overnight repos will expire tomorrow along with $3.5 billion in 4 day repos. That's a lot of paper to refund. Al typically drains when the Feed hits the top of its apparent target range, which appears to be 8% annualized growth. There may be more pulling back in the days ahead. Three
trends are evident on the Feed Index, which is the total Fed holdings of
loans and securities. One is the 10% growth trend beginning in May of
2001. Feed growth has recently been below the lower boundary of that
trend. The blue channel going back to last December suggests that Al may
now be targeting an 8% growth rate. Then there's the golden box which says
he's stopped growing Feed altogether over the last six months. The Feedometer is in an uptrend. The bond market will be competing with stocks for the excess Feed however. The strong relationship that we often see between Feed and stock market movements late in the day may be broken. However, on negative Feed days, all markets are likely to come under pressure. The
Feedometer theoretically
measures excess Feed available for bond or stock market jamming. Bond yields
exploded higher on the open, and spent the rest of the session dropping
back, but managing to close slightly higher on the day. They ticked the
upside 4 week cycle cmap of 4.30. The short term picture remains mixed. A couple of short cycles may be lining up for a
pullback, but there are no definitive signals. All of Doc's
daily cycle charts are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment Sentiment and Momentum Indicators
The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the
6-7 week cycle. the 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week
cycle. The dark blue overlaid line is the 10-13 week cycle
oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX
is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or
complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the
relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands may reflect either
6 month or 10-12 month cycles. Short Term Cycles The counts on the shortest waves are still unclear, but the upside cmaps have been hit. The 4-7 week cycle top is under way. The cmap has been gyrating, and is at 955. The topping process could last up to a week. The 17 day ROC remains in a negative divergence, and would flash a very strong sell signal should it turn down. 10-13 Week Cycle The 10-13 week cycle cmap remained at 950. The cycle indicators continue to drift slightly lower. Given the age of the cycle and the elapsed time since the last high, a downward acceleration should be imminent. If it doesn't begin Tuesday, we may be looking at a sideways down phase, and more weeks of torture. The 10-13 week cycle indicators all remain on sell signals, and Doc, being Doc, still expects those signals to bear the bear fruit. A downturn in the 29 day rate of change would confirm that the downturn is under way. VIX The VIX slipped. On the inverted scale Stool Band chart, it turned up from the center channel line. The action last week where the VIX traded above the blue channel line is an indication of an overcooked, overconfident market, one that's riding for a fall. Cycle Chart The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 12/2/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Cycle Chart Short Term Cycles The shortest cycle counts remain unclear, but upside cmaps weren't blown out for a change, holding at 1475. The 4-7 week cycle is in a top phase that could last up to a week, but has apparently reached its cmap of 1480. Keep an eye on the 17 day ROC. It is close to confirming a downturn. A drop below current levels would do it. 10-13 Week Cycle The 10-13 week cycle indicator is still inching lower in the top zone. The cmap remained 1490. The 29 day ROC is also on the razor's edge of confirming a downturn. The market has been stretched beyond the limit on the upside, and should snap back down. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 12/2/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Long Bong Hit - See top of page. AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published between 7:30-8 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool HUI continues
its basing action. When the big breakout comes it will be to the upside.
But there's no sign that it will happen any time soon. It should trade in
the 110-125 range for the next couple of months. Uncle Buck's Illness
Uncle B stuck his head out the window of his hospital room yesterday, and
he got whacked by a stool pigeon flying overhead. Oh well. Meanwhile the
indicators are divided. Buck will probably stay where he is for awhile
yet. Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Now posted on separate page. Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:30 AM NY time. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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. (Sorry
about the bull.) 
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