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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Nobody Likes A Talking Steak (2/7/01) Picked this little tidbit tonight from SeeBS.Markethype: Concerns over accounting standards and quality of earnings will likely last until first-quarter results are posted. This wait-and-see approach could lead to a prolonged messy market. A decline in investor confidence could trigger a price-to-earnings collapse similar to that of the 1970s," commented the S&P Investment Policy Committee in its weekly research note. I want you to savor that statement, fellow bears. It's another benchmark in the sea change of the way Americans view the stock market. Suddenly, there is a growing and widespread awareness that the damn stock market has a history longer than 20 years, an awareness that once upon a time a PE ratio of 15 was considered normal, and that a "value" stock was one whose PE was below 10, not 30. Of course, today it makes no difference whatsoever, because there are no profits. The Street actually went to work on Crisco's attempted grease job Wednesday nite, and discovered that the 4 cent earnings "surprise" was all smoke and mirrors. And it was one of our favorite borkers, Mohel Lynch, (Oy, do we got tips for you) who trumpeted the news to the financial media. Ah, yes the times they are a changin'! The financial media, interested primarily in a good story, one that will hold an audience, is really beginning to get its teeth into this cesspool. (Yuk) And the public is paying attention. Short sellers have become media darlings! We are going to see more and more of this in the months and years to come. It will be a long running Greek tragedy. Meanwhile the bulls are squealing that the Enron incident is isolated and overblown and will blow over in a month. Nrtaurally they are bitching and moaning that investors are getting this all wrong, yadda yadda. They don't realize that the viewers out there in TV land are beginning to see them for the crooks they are. The poodits better get used to days like Thursday. They will become the norm in this New Era stock market. The Dowager Jones traded in a parabolic loop Thursday, starting out first with a bump, then a quick selloff to 9630. Next was a steady climb to the noon high of 9743, a pullback and retest, then a slowly accelerating swoon into the low tick at the bell, down 28 to 9625. All that's left to complete the Hunchback formation is the "fall down and I can't get up" day. One of these mornings the Dow is going to open with a 100 point plus gap on its way to a 1000 point down day. And from there it will get worse. |
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SPX Charts The Portfolio Sphincters Index shrunk by 3.34, following the same intraday pattern as the Dow. The high was 1094. The low was 1078, just below the close of 1080. The VIX is neutral. It can go a long way from here. Right now it's in the mid 20s. At the September low it got to 60. Likewise for momentum. While weakening, it can fall a long way from here. The bottom of this monster is a long way off.
The cycles are very early in their downturn. The index is headed for 950, and then some.
The SPX went through that 38.2% fibbing nacho retracement like a hot knife through butter. What the hell, it'll probably gap the next one.
SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/6/02
L-Low,
H-High Nasdaq Charts As usual, the disaster du jour was the Nasty. They could only heave this brick up to 1824 before it began its gradually accelerating descent to the close at 1782, down 30.60. The picture speaks for itself. And yes, we have no Dover Sole, because bears eat Dover Sole. The market was already Dover Sole when it crashed in 1929 and 1987.
The Nas is also set up for a big gap down. Admittedly, a short term low is due in the couple of days. The stress is on short term.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/7/02
L-Low,
H-High Golden Stool Gold bulls are so nervous they are dropping loads all over the place. Now don't get all wussy and nervous here gold fans. I know you're not used to winning. But this is for real, and it's only the beginning. I'm not concerned that the price has blown through the channel projection. The real wave channel is turning higher. Will we see a pullback? Sure, but it will be a sideways consolidation at worst.
Sucktor Watch OK SOX fans, stay near the toilet so you can see the big dump as it gets flushed. If you're short here, it's gonna be fun. Next stop 400.
Stoolwethers This may be the most important story right here because Fannie is the poster child of the credit bubble. A short term bounce is due any day, but it will be the last one for a long long time.
The Walmart whopsaw, (a false breakout above a really important resistance level) is just about completed. How this stock behaves is so important for so many reasons. Remember that Fleet is the specialist for this baby too. They can't handle heavy selling in this, if it comes. Keep an eye on it. Stodgy, but important to the health of the market.
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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