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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02, 9/13/02, 9/16/02, 9/17/02, 9/18/02, 9/19/02, 9/20/02, 9/23/02, 9/24/02, 9/25/02, 9/26/02, 9/27/02, 9/30/02 10/1/02, 10/2/02, 10/3/02, 10/4/02, 10/7/02, 10/8/02, 10/9/02, 10/10/02, 10/11/02, 10/14/02, 10/15/02, 10/16/02, 10/17/02, 10/18/02, 10/21/02, 10/22/02, 10/23/02, 10/24/02, 10/25/02, 10/28/02, 10/29/02, 10/30/02, 10/31/02 11/1/02, 11/4/02, 11/5/02, 11/6/02, 11/7/02, 11/8/02, 11/11/02, 11/12/02, 11/13/02, 11/14/02, 11/15/02, 11/18/02, 11/19/02, 11/20/02, 11/21/02, 11/22/02, 11/25/02, 11/26/02, 11/27/02, 11/29/02 12/2/02,
12/3/02, 12/4/02,
12/5/02 1/1/03, 1/2/03, 1/03/03, 1/6/03, 1/7/03, 1/8/03, 1/9/03, 1/10/03, 1/13/03, 1/14/03, 1/15/03, 1/16/03, 1/17/03, 1/21/03, 1/22/03, 1/23/03, 1/24/03, 1/27/03, 1/28/03, 1/29/03, 1/30/03, 1/31/03 2/3/03, 2/4/03, 2/5/03, 2/6/03, 2/7/03, 2/10/03, 2/11/03, 2/12/03, 2/13/03, 2/14/03, 2/18/03, 2/19/03, 2/20/03, 2/21/03, 2/24/03, 2/25/03, 2/26/03, 2/27/03, 2/28/03 3/3/03, 3/4/03, 3/5/03, 3/6/03, 3/7/03, 3/10/03, 3/11/03, 3/12/03, 3/13/03, 3/14/03, 3/17/03, 3/18/03, 3/19/03, 3/20/03, 3/21/03, 3/24/03, 3/25/03, 3/26/03, 3/27/03, 3/28/03, 3/31/03 4/1/03, 4/2/03, 4/3/03, 4/4/03, 4/5/03, 4/8/03, 4/9/03, 4/22/03, 4/23/03, 4/24/03, 4/25/03, 4/28/03, 4/29/03, 4/30/03 5/1/03, 5/2/03, 5/5/03, 5/7/03, 5/8/03, 5/9/03, 5/12/03, 5/13/03, 5/14/03, 5/15/03, 5/16/03, 5/19/03, 5/20/03, 5/21/03, 5/22/03, 5/23/03, 5/27/03, 5/28/03, 5/29/03, 5/30/03 6/2/03, 6/3/03, 6/4/03, 6/5/03, 6/6/03, 6/9/03, 6/10/03, 6/11/03, 6/12/03, 6/13/03, 6/16/03, 6/17/03, 6/18/03, 6/19/03, 6/20/03, 6/23/03, 6/24/03, 6/25/03, 6/26/03, 6/27/03 7/7/03, 7/8/03, 7/9/03, 7/10/03, 7/11/03, 7/14/03, 7/15/03, 7/16/03, 7/17/03, 7/18/03, 7/21/03, 7/22/03, 7/23/03, 7/24/03, 7/25/03, 7/28/03, 7/30/03, 7/31/03 8/1/03, 8/4/03, 8/5/03, 8/6/03, 8/7/03, 8/8/03, 8/11/03, 8/12/03
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Markets 8/13/03 Cycle Conditions Tables 8/13/03 The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. Charts and discussion below. Note: The Cycle Conditions Charts and daily discussions are updated daily, and supercede the weekly long term chart discussions.
Nasdaq (Charts and Discussion)
Cycle Map 8/13/03- Doc's best guess on where the market is headed over the next few weeks. The 6-7 week cycle, and an occasional 4 week cycle, have been the dominant waves in the market for the last several months. That should continue, until the down leg gets a push, and trending takes over. The 6-7 week cycle is on the way up with a high due in late August or early September. An earlier high means liquidity and demand are weak, and bigger cycles are weakening. A later high would signal the opposite. The up phase is likely to be a swup because of weak liquidity and lack of thrust from bigger waves. The 10-13 week cycle does not appear to be a significant force at this time. The cycle appears to be in a sideways up phase. That wouldn't preclude a move to the top of a flat wave band. With volatility diminishing, they may not even get that far. We are in a gray area insofar as the 6 month cycle. The final days of any cycle are often marked by sharp declines. Before we get to that potentiality, however, the up phase in shorter cycles which began last week will intervene, possibly into late August or early September, followed by a sharp selloff into the 6 month cycle low. At times, the 6 month cycle may last only five months, raising the possibility that last week's low may have been it. With the 10-12 month cycle rolling over, any up phase in the 6 month cycle should be restrained. Mostly it looks as though the market will just get flatter, until it finally breaks below the 960 area.
18 Month Cycle ________ 10-12
Month Cycle_______ 6 Month Cycle_______
10-13 Week Cycle______ Anals
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Buck MoGauge Uptick Meaningless 8/6/03 Dow Inflatables
8/13/03- The rally hit a wall of disinterest today. Disinterest fueled
by rapidly dwindling cash hoards. The will to buy may be there, but the
ability no longer is. (See Feed and MoGauge)
A 13 day cycle high was due today and short cycle indicators began to roll
over. Upside cmaps that looked like they would be in the mid 9400s, came
right back down. The 4 week cycle cmap now looks to be between 9275 and
9375. The 10-13 week cycle remains
in a swup, while the 6 month cycle glides along in a sideways down phase.
Cycle juxtaposition and sheer lack of interest could keep the Dow locked
in a narrow range for months. Ugh. All of Doc's daily cycle charts
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Buck Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment 8/13/03 Cycle Chart The 8 and 13 day cycles are in the process of peaking while 4 to 10 week cycles remain in weak up phases, due to last until around the end of the month. Liquidity problems could force an earlier end. An early downturn would be bearish confirmation, but there's no point in anticipating. Let the market tell us. With the 10-12 month cycle indicator rolling over, and the 6 month cycle indicator still coming down, the rally shouldn't get too far. IT may already be fizzling. We just have to wait it out. Big cycles could be juxtaposed for months and months on end, with diminishing volatility. We are going to have to learn how to be better range traders. It's too early to play short and hold and make any money. But not too early to pick out good candidates for those who want to short individual stocks. Sentiment VIX backed up (down on the inverted scale chart) after Tuesday's huge move. Sleepy complacency goes on. In the final stages of the top, sentiment remains ebullient well beyond the highs. Hitting 20, then reversing, has repeatedly marked major tops over the last five years. But it looks like we're going to repeat the exercise, as the bulls remain more convinced than ever that all is well. Just a bigger top, that's all. The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle. The 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week cycle. The blue line overlaid on the price chart is the 10-13 week cycle oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands" may reflect either 6 month or 10-12 month cycles.
Long Term Commentary 8/1/03- Charts updated 8/13/03 Here's the current long term projection for the SPX. Note that a 61.8% fiber nacho retracement of the last leg down is complete. Longer term cmaps had suggested that a final burst to 1050-1075 could occur. Long term upside cmaps don't always get hit. Given what's going on in the liquidity picture, Doc likes the projection below, which is more like the forecasts from past months. It points toward a retest of the lows no later than the second quarter of 2004 and a sub 700 SPX by 2005. Upon examination
of past lows in the mid 1990's, Doc saw two critical lines relative to the
massive Hunchback top spanning four years. The first line now projects
through 995. The
second is around 961. Getting below both levels would create a WHOPsaw, a massive false breakout
that fools and traps the majority. The 10-12 month cycle oscillator
is turning down suggesting a move to 900 over the next few months, enough
to turn the 18 month cycle lower as shown. The Portfolio Sphincter's Index is now 44 weeks off the October lows. Hmm, let's see where the Nikkiu was 44 weeks after its 1992 bubble bust low. The similarities are... spooky. Is this a blueprint for our future? Stay tuned.
The US bubble bust markets have been following the Nikkiu model with but minor variations for nearly three and a half years. Given that the systemic responses have been similar, I see no reason to believe the outcome will be different this time, i.e. years of stagnation followed by another collapse. The wild sentiment readings and the concentration of speculative activity in the market's worst pieces of trash suggests an exhaustive blowoff of historic proportions. Be that as it may, the rally has pushed long term cycle oscillators to the point that should they rise any more, a change in the long term secular trend would be indicated. It appears that longer term cycles are turning flatter, similar to the Nikkei experience of the 1990's. That still leaves prices at, or near, the top of longer term channels, portending a major decline ahead. But instead of looking for lows in the mid 600s next year, the pullback would probably only go into the low 800s. Basic Edwards and Magee Update- The oldest, and simplest of the modern era theories on technical analysis may still be the best. This chart suggests that the long term downtrend is probably still intact, and that the last two weeks of the rally were an exhaustion move, just like in March of 2002, May of 2001, and September of 2000. Here's something interesting. In July of 1998 the market launched a counter trend selloff. It lasted 12 weeks. The high of the move was 128.7% of the low. The recent rally phase lasted 15 weeks. The high of the move was 128.7% of the low. Here we have examples of two huge countertrend moves which went to extremes in violating long term trendlines. The July 1998 example bent, but did not break, the bubble uptrend. The recent rally was a mirror image. Except now, there's no reversal. Instead we see consolidation. Is it distribution, or accumulation for a final blowoff? The cmaps say, there's a final blowoff ahead. The Nikkiu model says, the goose is cooked right here. The short term indications Monday and Tuesday will hopefully give us an answer.
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Buck Nasgap Charts 8/13/03 The 6-7 week cycle is heading weakly higher. Both the 17 day and 29 day RoC have turned up. The cycle indicators have not, however. Mixed indications do not signal big moves. The configuration remains weaker than the Portfolio Sphincters Index, and the stage managed Dow. The question is, which index is leading. Doc suspects that Gang and institutions are concentrating buying in stocks like Market Maker Mafia (MMM), and a few other big cap Dow names, helping to mask relative weakness in the broader market. It's called painting the tape. Cycle Chart Long Term 8/8/03 Looking at the
18 month cycle cmap, the indication is that the 1750 area is the top on the
Nas. Once the 10-12 month cycle oscillator rolls over, it's
over. It looks like it's starting. The rollover could take 6 days or it could take 6 months.
The Nas needs to get below 1600 to confirm the beginning of the 18 month cycle down
phase. That would also be the point at which the index falls back below
the neckline of the huge 4 year long Hunchback top formation. Anals
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Buck Feed Usually posted by 1:00 NY time, daily. Fed Turdsday Releases and The MoGauge Long Bong Hit Usually posted by 4:00 NY time, daily. Golden Stool - Golden Stool is updated in the AM. Click the link to go to the most recent update. Uncle Buck's Illness - Now posted on separate page. Usually posted by 4:00 PM ET. Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Now posted on separate page. Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Big Fine Print Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method, and other techniques. This publication is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the estimates and projections presented. The market may or may not meet the projections. Stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Yadda yadda How's your motha? More disclaimers at the bottom of the page. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically for one year, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. If you want to renew, be sure your credit card information in your Paypal account is current. Paypal will not renew your subscription if the card has expired!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. About centered moving average projections. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
. (Sorry
about the bull.) 
