|
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology. As always, the Anals' Editor will be none other than the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals will be replacing the nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. In the future, you'll be able to get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here on Capitalstool.com. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001 New Year Market Tricks, Same Old Stool (1/2/02)
Looks like we're in the year of the whipsaw. In the early going, it seemed Monday's selloff would get some follow through. In the end the bulls were able to carry the day, building a base for 3 hours before exploding out of the gate in the last half hour. The whiff of bear crapitulation was in the air, particularly in Dr. Stool's office, where a bucket, mop, and Pine Sol had to be called in to clean up the mess. The Nas ended with a gain of nearly 29 to close at 1979, and the Sphincters Index rose 6.59, to close at 1155. Early on the Nasty had dipped to 1939 for a second. The SPX dropped down to 1136. So the move off the lows was substantial. Is the rally sustainable? Certainly... for an hour or two. Ok, I'll give it a day. The Nas and especially the SPX (See charts below) are poised to break through major downtrend lines on any further strength. That will suck in all the chart boys for what should be quite a dramatic blowoff. Yet another in a 2 year series of them. It remains to be seen how many times the market can sustain getting them like this, but it seems certain that we're going to get one more blow job. Of course, by breaking those long term downtrend lines, the market will finally convince the 3 or 4 people around the world (all of whom read this website, by the way) who aren't yet convinced about this new bull market. Which leads to the age old question, "Who will buy my wonderful tulips?"
The SPX chart above should give you some idea how close they are to creating a circus atmosphere by breaking those various downtrend lines. The blue lines are a linear regression channel from the September 2000 top. The red lines are a linear regression channel formed by the data between the March 2000 top and April 2001 bottom. Those lines are then extrapolated. The market action still fits those parameters. The pink lines are just mechanically drawn trendlines connecting bottoms and tops. Which only goes to show that a straight edged stock proctoscope, otherwise known as a ruler, is just as effective as a high powered math program in creating a clear picture. I can only guess that we get the breakout, followed by the double top, then by a chop down, back inside the channels. That should finally put an end to it. But what the hell, I've been wrong about this market for 3 months. Why not make it 4?
From the looks of the Nas chart above, the six month cycle is topping put, the 10-13 is at a bottom, and the sum of all the shorter stuff is toppy, but not quite finished. I suspect that the bottom on the 10-13 was actually back in mid-December, based on the SPX chart below. It's not like a new 13 week upwave is just getting started. And as the June July period showed us, the up phase of this cycle at this stage of the 6 month cycle isn't likely top be up much. We may just have to live with the whipsaws for a while.
The VIX still shows levels of complacency only associated with topping although it moved back into the mid 20s today. Late May was similar.
Bottom line is I'm just not gonna change my tune. I guess you can't teach an old Stool new tricks. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/2/02
*SWD=
Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/2/02
*Sideways
Down See you in Intraday Stool. |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK
