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10 Minute Bar Charts 3/25/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Free trial access to the Anals will end on March 31, 2002. To access the Anals on or after April 1, you must subscribe. When you subscribe through Paypal, you will immediately receive a user name and password which will allow you to access the current issue. If you have previously sent a donation through Paypal, and you would like a complimentary subscription equivalent to the amount of your contribution, send an email to [email protected]. Include your name, your email address, and if possible the date of your contribution(s) through Paypal. Upon confirming your information, I will send you a user name and password. Allow 1 week for processing. By requesting and accepting a complimentary subscription, you are agreeing that you have read and agreed to the Terms and Conditions, which basically says that you can't sue Dr. Stool, or Capitalstool.com, or its owner, no matter what! (If you emailed me this week, thank you! I will send your user name and password this weekend.) Finally, if you prefer not to use on-line payment, you can subscribe by mail. The annual subscription rate for payment by check is $99.00. Print the subscription form at the bottom of the Terms and Conditions and mail it in to the address on the form, with your check, of course. I will email you a user name and password. Allow 2 weeks for processing payments by mail. Thank you for your support! Doc Stoolies- See Subscription Information Above! What do the following 6 stocks have in common? AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS, TER, and MYK? Yep, they're all semiconductor equipment stocks. And they're all big movers for sure. And you may also know that they were borked Monday morning by Salomon Smith Borkedme. But did you know that while all 6 opened strong, 5 of the 6 closed down, and that 4 closed down big. Anybody who bought those five stocks on the open, following the recommendation is in a world of hurt. And Doc is sure that you didn't know, but could have guessed, that Sallie Smith Borked Me is a designated Nasdaq market maker in 5 of those six stocks. Sallie, most assuredly did quite well Monday morning. Now get this. The one stock that closed up was MYK. It closed up 6%. It's the only one that Sallie Smith Borkedme does not make a market in. Heck, why bother? It trades an average of 200,000 shares a day, and has only 39 million shares outstanding. Hmmm, you don't suppose that Sallie might have accumulated some of that stock in the days leading up to the bork, in anticipation of just such an event. After all, they wouldn't expect a stock with an average volume of 200,000 shares to move much when, first thing Monday morning it gets pumped on all the infomercials. My guess is that Sallie did real well for herself on that 6% move. Not bad for half a day's work, and not too difficult either, when you know what's coming. Did you ever ask yourself why, when the borkers bork a whole industry group, it's always a group with a real high beta? And it's always the stocks the borker makes a market in, with rare exceptions like the one above. This stuff should be criminal, and these people should be in jail for stealing from their customers. But, this is the foundation of capitalism. Borking is what stock borkers do. They are in the stock distribution business. What better way to distribute stock than by a tout from an analcyst shill. Time honored, tried and true. And the financial media never even raise an eyebrow, because they are owned, lock, stock, and barrel by the criminals who commit these crimes. For a few hundred million in advertising revenue, you'd bend over too. More on the bork, below.
And the nonsense that is being spewed about the rate at which earnings will grow is just mind boggling. It's simply a matter of the wish being father to the dream. These people are in denial and hallucinating. But they all feel safe, because virtually everybody on the Street is doing and saying the same thing. Well guess what? They're all wrong. As the Dow chart shows, the stage managers are lowering the curtain. The first intermission will be at 10,000. Where the final act will take place it's way too early to tell. Suffice to say, it will be a lot lower. Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) Charts The VIX, a sentiment indicator based on options volatility, closed at 20.48, up from Friday's 19.62, the lowest level since August 31, 2000. The SPX dropped 15% in the 6 weeks following that reading. However, that was after the index stayed below 20 with the market churning for 2 weeks. The question is, can we rely on that precedent? The indicator has only "worked" for four years. Four years is not much history. Prior to that the VIX was consistently below 20, during the bubble. But Monday was a start in the right direction. Price, and price based indicators are always the final arbiter. We see negative divergences on the charts going back months. If the market turns down before the divergences are resolved, these rallies have been nothing more distribution. That is Wall Street's business, and they are masters of it. Resistance at 1175 held several times, and the 17 day rate of change turned down, signaling a probable reversal. When the 28 day rate of change follows, a downturn in the 10-13 week cycle will be confirmed, and the rout will be on. It sure looks like Monday was the day. Wall Street thinks that the market is in a bull market correction. Looking at the linear regression channel going back to the January 2001 high gives a different impression. By any standard of technical analysis, the broadest of the most widely followed market averages has never passed the test of being in a bull market. Do not be taken in by Wall Street's Big Lie, no matter how many times they repeat it.
Intermediate cycle indicators on the daily chart have begun to turn down at relatively low levels. A downturn from these levels normally indicates severe weakness ahead. The 1 year cycle up phase has been under way since the September 2001 lows, and is now completing a second top. This is not a new up cycle. It is a mature one, and the February-March rally was an exhaustion blowoff driven by short covering. The top building process usually takes weeks. This one has been under way for 3 weeks. Time is now on the side of the bears.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings of the market. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 3/25/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The
six month cycle oscillator on the Nas remains weak in
negative territory, and precariously close to a sell signal. This indicates an extremely weak up phase,
and it will be a precursor to complete collapse if the indicator turns
down without further improvement from here.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 3/25/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn As we all know, the act of borking is what happens when a borkerage firm analcyst shill pumps a stock after the borkerage's trading arm has accumulated a ton of it, either by design, or by accident. Invariably, the borking itself causes the stock to top out, because everybody who had even the slightest inkling to buy the stock, panics, and they all jump in all at once. Goodbye, pent up demand, if there even was any. The result is always the same. You get screwed, or borked, because the guy managing your retirement finds is either too stupid to know better, or he does and doesn't give a crap, because, after all, it ain't his money! Doc will check back on these borkings every so often to illustrate the aftermath. Remember, ladies and gentlemen, stock borking is what borkers do. It's their business. Accumulate inventory, mark it up and move it out, just like any other retailer or wholesaler. They make money the old fashioned way, advertising, PR, and salesmanship! Which brings up a thought, perhaps the greatest borking of all time was when the NYSE's third largest specialist firm, Meehan, managed to bork itself to the dumbasses at FleetBoston at the top of the bull market! The deal was negotiated in late 1999 early 2000, and closed in July 2000. Now that was a borking for the ages! Here we have a chart of Sallie Smith Borked Me's borking of AMAT. Am I not mistaken, or did they bork this just below a major resistance level, and with signs of distribution abounding on the chart? If you don't think the borkers are aware of the technical position of a stock, think again. I will be very surprised if this stock doesn't tank in the weeks ahead. Why else would Sallie want to get rid of it? We'll keep track of this borking, and expose it for what it is, a fraud on the investing public, willfully joined by the portfolio sphincters who are frittering away your retirement funds. They buy this stuff knowing full well that it is overpriced, because a research recommendation by Sallie's whorehouse gives the sphincter cover for his incompetence. It's called blame shifting, an art form at which Wall Street is the master practitioner. It's not my fault. Sallie made me do it!
Golden Stool The gold index continues to roll. And it's barely getting started on the intermediate oscillators.
Bond yields may be ready to pause, but the uptrend is solid. No significant pullbacks in sight. I expect a breakout above 5.50 within weeks. But, I will yell loud, if the picture starts to change.
the time has come for Uncle Buck's illness to go into remission. But it doesn't look like he can mount much of a rally. If he can't pop 118.50, he'll die. Talk about the Dollar on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. |
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