|
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. AM Update 8/15/02 1:00 PM Terms and methodology
Keep in mind we are in a "bad news is good" cycle, as players anticipate the Greenspan put. The big Feed suggests they won't be disappointed. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
AM Update 8/15/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology Impossible to say what the structure of intraday cycles is. The cmaps look a little higher on the open and are consistent with the highs so far on the fucutures. Doc knows some of you Evil Knievels are going to short that. Make sure you got lots of padding and don't overstay. The 5 and 8 day cycle targets are also higher, but the advance should run into heavy sledding and start to churn into a projected high early next week. The upside beyond today's highs looks limited. With the insane volatility, expect some wild intraday swings.
The Silence of the Bears (8/14/02) The slaughter of bears resumed on Wednesday. Their cries of anguish rang out throughout the land. But alas, the market is a cruel teacher, and she just kept hammering away. Aside from the obvious strength in short term indicators, the downside cmaps for the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles on the Nas rose to 1180-1200, and on the SPX to 770. Both had already been nearly hit, making it all but certain that the cycle low is behind us, and that for at least the next two months, the big killer wave will be in an up phase. If the 10 month cycle is dominant, it could be 5 months. In the world of traders, that's irrelevant, but we must prepare to live with an upward bias for months. For the past three weeks, and going forward, we have not been able, and we will not be able, to trade this market from the short side with impunity, and get away with it like we did from March to July. Not to say there will not be opportunities to short stocks and sectors, but you must be prepared to take profits quickly, always use protection, and don't allow your ideology as a bear to get in the way of preserving your capital. Doc is speaking from experience, and wants you to profit from his mistakes. It's no fun being a bear if you blow out your trading capital in the process. If Doc is wrong, don't worry, you'll be a able to get short on the next bounce. The great thing about the market is that if you miss one opportunity, three's always another right behind it. The casino never closes. It is most important to realize that the earliest days of a 6 month cycle are the strongest, regardless of whether the wave will have a strong upward slope or not. What the market did Wednesday seemed surprising, but it should not have been. The all important 10-13 week cycle indicators have been strengthening for weeks, and the 6-7 week ozzies are going through the roof. Shorting in an environment like that is the opposite of trying to catch falling swords. It's more like falling on your sword. Banzai!!! and Goodbye! Doc will put his long term bear credentials up with anyone out there. He stands by them and he's proud to count his fellow bears among the smartest, finest people he knows. But Doc isn't going to fall on his sword again, and he doesn't want you to. For everything there is a season, and this ain't ours. I don't want you to blow out like I did last fall and last Spring, and if I've helped one stoolie to keep from doing that, that's good. If I'm wrong, if I'm panicking, mea culpa in advance. If you want to laugh and say the Docicator is a good contrary indicator, that's ok too. Doc doesn't mind being the "butt" of a joke. But about this, he isn't kidding around. I'm just reading the indicators and this is what I see for now. If things change tomorrow, Doc will be the first to scream. Doc doesn't marry his opinions and will only defend what that charts are showing. The Feed added $4 billion in 8 day repos. There we no rollovers. Don't get too excited. $4 billion in 28 day repos are expiring Thursday. Let's see what Al does. Lately he hasn't been rolling the full amount of expiring 28 day repos. The chart shows that the Feed has
definitely taken its foot off the gas, going from a 10% growth path, to
what looks like 8%, based on the slope of the new trendline since March.
Al clearly watches the market, and while he doesn't want collapse, he
surely does not want to see the destabilizing influence of another
speculative explosion. It's going to be very interesting to see what they
do in the morning in response to today's turn of events. The Feedometer,
which theoretically measures excess Feed available for jamming the
market, has begun to turn up from the level at which it seems Al
always pumps. With cyclicality turning positive, a little pumping will go
a long way. But let's not jump the gun. To have any lasting impact, the
slow feedometer trend will need to turn up. The Mortgage
Bonkers Ass. (a nicer bunch of crooks you couldn't meet) released last
week's mortgage application data. It downticked, but it's too soon to
conclude that Bubblemania II is subsiding. Keep in mind that that the new
money will flow into M3 through money market fund intermediation over 4 to
8 weeks. M3 and MZM should surge over that time. Likewise economic
activity, just as it did in last year's fourth quarter. This will convince
the poodits that the recovery is picking up steam, getting the Gang and others
to commit some of the tidal wave of liquidity back into the stinking
rotten stock market. The sheeple will get sucked in again, the lever will
be pulled, and they'll get flushed yet again. This process will take
months to unfold. The housing
bubble is over, dead, kaput, fini. Nobody else knows it yet, but we do
because we see that classic two headed hunchback top on the mortgage purchase
index, and we stoolies know what that means. Housing demand is drying up
at these insane, ridiculous price levels. OK not all head and shoulders
patterns come to fruition, but they do when they're at the top of a
bubble. Even the refi explosion pulled back, in spite of mortgage
rates being way below where they were last fall. Perhaps the bottom of the
credit quality barrel has been scraped and there's no more to be
had.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
Today's rally provided additional confirmation that the six month cycle has turned up. The VIX dropped to 36.36. The Stool Band on the inverted scale VIX chart is beginning to flatten, meaning that VIX will need to get to at least the low 30's or lower, and then reverse, to signal a cycle high.
The superimposed 6-7 and 10-13 week oscillators are confirming the
strength. They continued to trend higher during the recent pullback continue
higher still. The 17 day rate of change, which is a proxy for the 6-7 week
cycle, shows tremendous thrust. This will not be worked off in a day, and
will not turn on a dime. The market will go higher, then it will have to
build a top before the next down leg. The 29 day rate of change proxy for
the 10-13 week cycle also rose, and looks like it did in the second week
of October, an analogous period cyclically. The 6 month cycle oscillator
is confirming the turn. The 10-12 month cycle oscillator hasn't yet.
That's just the normal lag in this indicator. The trading stoolicator is
strengthening. The earliest a 10-13 week cycle high is likely would be in
one to two weeks. It could also be as long as a month. The short cycle
oscillator remains "overbought" which is typical, and a sign of
strength in the early stages of a six month cycle up phase. The 10-13 week
cycle oscillator is strengthening.
Fiber Nacho Upchuck Levels The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/14/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 6 month cycle oscillator has turned up, but the slower 10-12 month cycle oscillator still hasn't. The downside cmaps for those cycles rose to 1180-1200, confirming that the low is probably in since the NAs already touched those levels. These cycles are represented by the dark blue and light green channels on the price portion of the chart. The upturns in shorter oscillators resumed with a vengeance. They broke the long term trend of declining momentum peaks, another sign that the 6 month killer wave has turned up. Just remember that "up" is a relative term. At this stage the slope of the phase is still not clear. With initial cmaps of 1375-95 the slope will be positive, but the question is how positive. In other words, will the up phase be complete at 1475 in two weeks, or 1400 in three months? Can't answer that.
The 10-13 week cycle oscillator moved higher. The 13 day and 4 week cycles
looked like they were headed down on Tuesday, but quickly reversed today.
That kind of whipsaw often leads to a short term blowoff. Was this a
result of manipulation, or the simple fact that longer cycles are turning
up? It doesn't pay to contemplate conspiracy theories when trading. It
does pay to honor what the indicators are telling us.
Fiber Nacho Reflux Levels: Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/14/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool Gold stocks
stalled as the rest of the market took off. The 4 week cycle is going into
a down phase, as it consolidates recent gains. The short cycle
oscillator is overbought, other indicators continue to strengthen.
It looks like just a matter of a few days or weeks until the 10-12 month
cycle wave (pink channel) turns up. We want to see the 10-12 month cycle oscillator begin to flatten in the
area of the zero line then gradually turn up. If it does so above the zero line, gold stocks are in for an extended
and powerful advance. That turn needs to start soon, or the picture starts
to get a little cloudier. AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Doc said flat out on the
message board yesterday, that the bottom was in. Was it just Stool
bombast? It was based on a one year cycle cmap of 4% being hit and the
plunge below the major long term channel projection. These usually
result in a bungee rebound within a few weeks. I'd expect them to
retest in a few days, but who knows. So far only the six month cycle
oscillator shows signs of confirming the call. Doc is hanging out there
stoolies. He needs some help on this one. Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle Buck near a short
cycle low, but intermediate is near high. Tough game, playing against
central banks. Biodrechs
have made a classic reverse head and shoulders reversal, and all
indicators point higher. Resistance at 385 and 415. Bonkers have
gone bonkers. The volatility made the chart difficult to read. But here's
no doubt now that the indicators are all pointing up. Resistance here at
780 and at 800. Consumer-
Wow. All the way back to the breakdown area, a classic return to the scene
of the crime and signs point to a jailbreak if they go over this
wall. Drugs- More
spectacular volatility, and yet another major reversal pattern, this one
not completed yet. All signs are that it will be. Resistance at 320. Bubblemania-
Uh oh, it may be alive. Retail-
Lagging, but coming back from the dead too. Energy is
turning the corner, but lacks energy. Will fly if it breaks resistance
here. SOX- Hard as
it may be to believe, even this looks like a bottom. Soft Where-
Not here. Even this looks like a bottom. Internuts,
Nutworkers, and Telecoms. Even the dead get out of bed and walk around
sometimes. Well not
quite.
CSCO will
test 15, then we'll see what it's really made of. Dell's big
test is 28. Fannie has
friends in high places. Will get there if resistance cleared. G-Eee- It
brings itself to l-i-i-i-fe. GM's engines
are revved up. IBM broke
out of base, but didn't break wind. INTC breaks
wind above 19 JPM rolls
over in grave, can't climb out. Mr. Bill may
live to 52, but Judge gives jail time. Attention
WalMart shoppers- Higher prices ahead. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. If you want to renew, be sure your credit card information in your Paypal account is current. Paypal will not renew your subscription if the card has expired! Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The
intraday charts are sporting a nice little reversal pattern, and there
they go, breakdown! Unfortunately the one day cycle low may be due in the
1 PM-2:30 PM slot. The 5 hour low is due at 3 PM. The cmaps are not too
far below current levels. Al gave us a GIANT Feed today. Watch out for
that 2:30 turn time.
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
![[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_hui_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
