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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Untel's the Gory Story (1/15/02) Stocks came out of the gate strong on Tuesday, churned for a couple hours, fell apart in mid-afternoon, then ramped in the last half hour. The SPX gained 7.66 to close at 1146. The Nasty was up 4.97 at 1995.71, and the Dow gained 32.73 to close at 9924. The afternoon lows were 1137 on the SPX, 1977 on the Nas, and 9865 on the Dow. The highs, which were hit in mid morning, were 1149, 2011, and 9986. The ramp agent for the end of day move was our old friend Mr. Suckhead, which gained a point between 3 and 4 PM. Untel added 1/2 during the jam, and they greased Crisco by 3/8. In the after hours those late gains looked liked ant hills, as the Big 3 got dumped on Untel's "good earnings". The problem is that "good" really sucks, and the people gambling with your money are having a hard time continuing to play with themselves, since nobody seems interested in buying this crap anymore. They are also worried that this is as good as it gets. When Intel said it would cut cap ex, semiconductor equipment stocks got crushed. As it turns out, the hourly oscillators are indicating that the 8 day cycle low which appeared to be missed on Monday, was indeed put in. It should also have been a 13 day cycle low. But the up phase doesn't look like it's going anywhere. Just another "dreaded sideways up phase". That's when cycle phase is positive but price simply moves in a range. It lulls the bulls to sleep, because they think it's consolidation. Which it is, but it's consolidation for the next move down. When will that come? Impossible to say, but it could be anytime. Normally the up phase of an 8-13 would last from 4 to 7 days in a neutral longer cycle. The up phase should be truncated if the 4, 6-7, and 10-13, week cycles are starting to come down. The sooner it gets started, the greater the market's weakness. One of these days the market is going to start trending, and these short cycles will cease to be an issue. Wednesday may just be the day. SPX Charts The SPX is still perched precariously at the upper edge of its long term regression channel. The VIX still signals relative complacency. Momentum indicators are signaling that the market is in the early stages of what should be a big move down. When rate of change or other mo type oscillators turn down from neutral territory, it's normally a sign that a big move will be forthcoming.
The 6 month cycle ozzie is flashing sell again, after a double pump. But, as discussed above the short cycle oscillator is starting to bounce. The bear got a little indigestion from the Dover Sole it ate over the last week. The bounce won't get far. At best it will track the underside of that pink trendline for a few days.
Nasdaq Charts The short cycle on the Nas hasn't turned up yet. Chances are the Bear will have a lot more Dover Sole to eat here. That's because, on an intermediate basis, the bulls gorged themselves, and they are now puking and dumping all over the barnyard. Still based on a rising 10-13 week cycle, they probably have some buck left in them. Could be a bumpy ride down, similar to what we saw in May-August when the 10-13 was in a positive mode. In other words, the dipshits will be buying the dips, and running the shorts. But it will be a good trading environment, if you're willing to cover when things get a little overheated on the downside, and re-short when they bounce. One of these days the Nas will stop bouncing and start trending, but that day doesn't appear to be hear yet. If there's panic selling in the morning, you can bet the dipshits will be there to catch 'em and run them up the flagpole in the afternoon. The inscription on the flag will say, "Short Me If You Dare." And I will.
Tonight's stoolwether is Untel. They make the microprocessors that nobody needs any more. Yes the new chips break the sound barrier. And Ford builds cars that can go 200 miles per hour, but nobody buys them either. As for the TA, the stock has been in a 12-18 month cycle up phase since April. The up phase has been contained in a flat wave. The next move is down, and it will be big. Short and intermediate momentum and cycle indicators have been flashing sell signals since Untel traded above 35 last week. That spurt is likely to turn into one of those most important of chart patterns that students of Stock Proctology are always on the lookout for, the whopsaw. Once that whopsaw is complete, you can stick a fork in Untel.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/15/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/15/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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