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10 Minute Bar Charts 7/25/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has passed its expiration date and you have received a new card, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Your Weak End Anals will be published Saturday by 1 PM Happy Acres Florida Time. No Friday Nite Quickie this week. PM Update 7/26/02 2:40 PM Terms and methodology Revised cmaps for the 1 day cycle low due now are Nas 1232, SPX 834 and NDX 887. The 5 day cycle indicators have rolled over, but the 8 day cycle ozzies have not. A little more weakness is needed. This week ending weakly would set up a weak week next week. See you in the expanded Weak End Edition! PM Update 7/26/02 12:45 PM Terms and methodology Seems we have a more or less orderly market today that so far is conforming to the cycle map. That doesn't mean it will continue, but, the probabilities seem better that they will. The 5 hour and 1 day cycles are headed down, with lows due at 1 PM and 2:30. The 5 day cycle oscillators are beginning to roll over, but the 8 day hasn't. That leaves a chance for at least a swup from 2:30 into the close. There's also a 3 day cycle low due this afternoon. Downside cmaps for that cycle are consistent with the 1 day cycle low projections. That wave has been very quiet lately and can probably be ignored. If you put a short position on this morning at the upside cmaps, you have the option of covering at the 5 hr 1 day low, or gritting your teeth to hold for Monday. Best of luck to ya! (Heh heh) Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/26/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology The full court press is on. Golden Sacks came with the big bork, as it needs to get out from under a huge load of tech stocks that have been dumped on it lately, in its capacity as one of the Nasty's largest market makers. We've seen this act before. Look for a strong open, and lots of churning today. 8 and 13 day cycle highs are due today, but don't know if they'll come early or late. I like the sidelines again today. If you are going to short the rally, be prepared to take profits quickly, and as always, use protection.
Teeter Totter (7/25/02) The Feed sucked $10.5 billion out of the system today. Al and Co. added $2 billion in 28 day repos and $2.25 billion in overnight repos, versus the expiration of $5 billion in 28 day repos, $6.25 billion in overnight repos, and $3.5 billion in 3 day repos. Tomorrow, today's $2 billion will expire. Unless the Fed adds aggressively tomorrow, today's big drain should put a hurting on the stock market, as it restricts the Gang of 22 in its ability to play games with stock prices. That big sucking sound you hear is kind of shocking until you consider the ongoing rapid inflation in broad money that's likely to get even worse in the weeks ahead as a result of the new mortgage bulge in the pipeline. (See yesterday's report.) It's possible that the Feed is pre-emptively attempting to reign in an even greater bulge in the real estate bubble. It seems clear they've abandoned the stock market. Today's figures on acceleration in the employment cost index may have the Fed spooked as well, although supposedly they want some inflation. Seems like they are getting the worst of everything deflation in manufacturing, and inflation in services and labor costs. But Doc isn't here to try and discern
the Feed's motivations, just to keep an eye on what they're doing to
ascertain whether it might affect the markets. The total Feed is again
near the lower edge of the 10% growth channel. A drop below would signal a
policy change and would be bearish. Another bounce off the line would be
neutral, unless it surpasses the center line, in which case it might
provide temporary support to stock prices. Simply remaining in the lower
half of the channel has been barely adequate to keep the system stable,
and has been inadequate to support stock prices. As that money flows into
the accounts of the Gang of 22 primary dealers, so far this year, it just
goes right back into the government bond market. The slow Feedometer, which measures the average excess Feed over the last 17 days, is flattening. We want to watch this closely for any signs of shift in Fed policy toward the markets.
The adjusted monetary base data,
which is through Wednesday, got a boost from the steady feeding through
Monday in preparation for yesterday's huge Treasury Note auction. This may
explain why the Fed pulled back so sharply today. Broad money is growing again, and
its growth should accelerate in the weeks ahead as all the new mortgages
are funded and the money gets recycled into money market funds. At the end of the chain closest to
cash, there is no growth, which raises questions about business activity.
In other words, the credit bubble continues to inflate, but it's not
trickling into the real economy.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The Sphincters lost 5 to close at 839. Downside cmaps remain in the mid to high 700 range. This is still a day trader's market. Until there's clarity, it's not time to set up swing positions. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, upticked again, but still not enough for a buy signal. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) started to turn at levels indicating a cycle low. An upturn from here, with the trend as weak as it is, does not necessarily mean that the up phase of the cycle will have a positive slope in real terms. It may simply be positive in relation to larger waves, in other words, a pause, or slowing in the downtrend. The same comments apply to the 29 day rate of change, which normally stabilizes and turns up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle turns. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) is still dropping. So there's still no confirmation of a cycle low. The market usually does some backing and filling during the trough phase of the 10-13 week cycle. Then it takes off to the upside when the indicators get in gear. The turn in this cycle means at least some upside, but with the long term trend as weak as it is, the rally should either be constrained in terms of time, price, or both. The VIX fell to 44.65 after hitting 56.74 Wednesday. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal is generated when the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. Look back at the September low, when VIX remained outside the channel for 5 days before reversing. So this doesn't look "good" in terms of the 6 month cycle low, but perhaps it's "good enough" for a 10-13 week cycle low. The chart should be read just as you would a stock price chart. If the indicator merely goes sideways here, it's setting up for another market plunge. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the September 2000 and March 2002 highs. The 6 month cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator are still trending down. The short cycle oscillator is headed up, but alone that's not enough to confirm that longer cycles have exhausted their downward momentum. The index has only recovered to the top of the shortest downtrending wave bands. We need to see if those trendlines are broken before concluding that the downside is complete for now. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator continues
to downtrend, and while it is in a bottom zone, it would need to turn up sharply to
signal anything other than a sideways consolidation. For the next few
days, give the benefit of the doubt to the downside, but be prepared for
reversal. The rally stopped dead at a
double fibo retrace level. Key downside retracement
levels are at 800 and 750-60. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/25/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Nassie took back half of Wednesday's absurd 96 point gain off the low, losing 50 points on the day, to 1240. Cmaps for shorter trading cycles again suggest a break below 1200 may be in the cards. The initial upside cmap on the 13 day cycle dropped to 1280, which was already reached. The 5-6 month cycle cmap projects a possible shot to 1000. That becomes more likely if Wednesday's gain is reversed completely tomorrow. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator is now dead neutral. Three things can happen
over the next few days. Two are bearish. One, the indicator can turn up
confirming a cycle low. Two, the indicator, stays flat at this level.
Prices would steadily move lower. Three, it turns down. That would almost
certainly signal a crash, especially if the short cycle oscillator stays
down at these levels. The rally
stopped cold exactly at a a double fibo level. Likewise,
the decline stopped on the dime of another double fibo level. Below that
the next "support" is 1200, and once they give that up, 1139. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/24/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! If bond yields are going to
reverse, this is the place, now is the time. So far, there's no sign they
will. The Japan scenario is rearing it's ugly head. Almost all groups are resting along their lower long term channel lines and are either beginning to, or appear poised to, go into trading ranges for awhile. On the other hand, in most cases, the cycle oscillators have yet to confirm. So expect some testing of the lows, along with new lows in some groups. Dirty SOX-
Will short covering trigger a rally from the 300 level? Golden Sacks is
borking this morning. The cycle ozzies are on the verge of signaling another
breakdown. A bottom
"should" be forming in the bank stocks. But the indicators say
it's just a pause. Biodrech is
in a classic sideways up phase. What next? More churning. The Con-sumer
sector has begun putting in an intermediate low but should pull back.
Expect a swup. Drugs-
There's little indicator confirmation of this upturn. Will
Networkers bounce along the bottom of the channel or dive again? Ozzie
says, Dive Dive! No sign of a
bottom in Software. Selling in
the small craps is taking a breather. That's all. Doc will
leave you with this thought. Telecoms are going to zero. A number of market stoolwethers have hit their 6-12 month cycle cmaps. Others have not. As a whole, looks like a choppy trading range for the next few months with some stocks still taking some major hits. The averages should work lower as a result. AhOL drops a
"Lone Turd". The long term cmap is zero. Thanks to stoolie
metamucil, MD, whose discovery of the Lone Turd Formation will make a fine
addition to The Stock Proctologist's Handbook of Rare Chart Patterns. As
you know, many people have made a great deal of money by studying rare
chart patterns. Mostly by writing books about them. Cmaps say
AMAT should find support at 13 in the short run, with a projection of 11 a
few weeks out. If you're
still looking for something to short, watch AMZN over the next few weeks.
The stock can drive you crazy because its cycles are not in synch with the
market's. But look at that hunchback! The perfect setup would be to short
it on a return to the scene of the crime after the hunchback falls down.
Got that? CSCO is a
tough read on cycles, but it's starting to let loose. 6 month cycle cmap
is 8. GM wants to
stabilize here. The cmap for the 10-13 week and 6 month cycles was 43,
which was hit. The 10-12 month cmap is 26. When Intel's
swup ends, the 10-12 month cycle cmaps say it will head for 10 bucks. Mr. Bill's
intermediate and long term trends are doing battle. The long term trend
wants to support, and the intermediate wants to break down. The 10-12
month cycle cmap is 35, due in the next couple of months. The boolz like
to talk about Mr. Bill's $36 bill in cash. So what. It's $7 a share. Wallyworld
has a 10-12 month cycle cmap of 39, due between August and October. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness In spite of a massive jam,
so far the intermediate up phase is shaping up as a swup. They jammed
again overnight, but Buck is still only at 105.30 this morning. Golden Stool HUI the golden goose looks like it may stop laying. If the index drops below 100, it completes a giant whopsaw. Game over?
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
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The
Dow was close to unchanged, losing 5 points. The sheeple will think it was
a quiet day, but those of us who were around know otherwise. The
Inflatables covered a 300 point range in arriving at unchanged. 
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
