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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Stage Managing The Dow Jokes (2/14/02) It goes on day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year - the stage management of the Dow Jokes Theater of the Absurd. Although not shown on the chart, the official, or perhaps that should be, offal, close on the Dow was 10001.99. The three charts at left speak for themselves. This is a farce, a fraud perpetrated on an unsuspecting public by those who manage the markets, in effect the 3 member cartel of the NYSE Specialist firms who control all 30 Dow stocks. It is a con game designed to lull investors into a false sense of security while insiders distribute worthless stock to the moronic mental midgets and know nothings who manage and fritter away your retirement funds. The Dow is an arithmetic index of 30 stocks. That means that, unlike capitalization weighted indices like the SPX and Nas, a big move in one stock can significantly distort the true picture of the market. The stocks with the highest prices and the biggest moves are the dog that wags the Dow's tail, and thus the tail that wags the market dog. And as I have pointed out ad nauseum, Goldman Sucks, LaBrack, and FleetEnemaBoston each control a third of the Dow. The fix is in, today, and everyday. This evening, I got an email from a reader. The thought behind it was stunning in its simplicity and brilliance. Here is what the letter said: ""I have a real problem with the Dow and its point weighting, so I thought I would look at some numbers. Jan 1, 2000 - 11497.12 Today- 10001.99 Loss of 13% On Jan 1, 2000 the combined market cap of the Dow was about 4227.65 billion. Today it was about 3365.1 billion. Market cap loss 862.55 billion The Dow's percentage loss in terms of market cap is 20.4% as of today. The S&P 500 is market cap weighted. Its loss from Jan 1, 2000 to today is 24%. It's clear to me that the Dow is still in bear market territory in terms of market cap loss. The [Dow] gainers since Jan 1, 2000 are few. MO, MMM, UTX, C, BA, CAT. MO is the big gainer up 122%. It also had one of the smallest market caps in 2000. I think this information is very telling. If anyone knows of any charts of the Dow's market cap over the last few years I would love to see them. please, let me know if you have a link to any." That was from Kevin. Thank you for that! If you know of any data, or if you'd like to discuss this, please do so over on the Stool Pigeons Wire. I thought it would be fun again to take a romp around the wire services to check out the noises coming from the sphincters. As you recall from last nights Anals, they were wildly exuberant. Not quite so jolly tonight though. I've added a few editorial comments to spice things up. "The market's still a little bit on the timid side when they see all these big players in the telecommunications side running into problems and that's going to trickle down into the broader market." [Ah yes, the old trickle down. Like Niagara Falls] "Investors are legitimately concerned about seeing a stock they own be worth half its current price in a short period of time!" [I'll say. That's supposed to be news?] "We are seeing investors stepping into the market and buying -- but they are only testing the market with their toe." [Yech, I hope they wipe that crap off after they pull it out.] "There's no investor appetite to step up and support stocks!" [I guess they ate too much already. Now they feel like puking.] "The ratings agencies are being a lot more aggressive after Enron. It's understandable they'd be aggressive after being late before. But maybe it goes too far!" [My gawd, they might find out the whole thing's a fraud!] And that's how it goes with the poodits tonight. Dell reported after the bell. Met expectations, and continued to take share. It was a yawner. A big so what. The market didn't react. The Dow Jokes got to the top of the bulloney bullhorn pattern Thursday, and it met it's 4 week cycle centered moving average projection of 10,000. This thing is finished, although they'll probably keep whipping out that 10,000 thing and playing with it. For anyone who was around in the late 60's and early 70's, there's a sense of deja vu. Just keep one thing in mind. This is what THEY want you to see. It's not the real market. |
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SPX Charts The SPX is still hugging the upper linear regression channel projections going all the way back to the top of the market in 2000. Likewise, the VIX, a sentiment measure based on options premiums, continues to indicate the extreme complacency typical of the initial phase of a down trend, just like last June, July and August.
The cycle patterns remain similar to last summer's as well. The shorter cycles are near the top of a sideways up phase, while the 10-13 week cycle is just going into one. That portends a couple more weeks of chop, but it should have a downward bias. After a few weeks, it will break out the bottom.
How about that. The SPX is hanging around that 38.2% fiber nacho retracement.
The cycle charts have a new feature, a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. Is Doc a wild and crazy guy, or just a glutton for punishment? Actually, this is because I miscounted the last 13 day cycle, and was a day late and a dollar short at the low, looking for it on Monday, instead of Friday. That's no excuse, because 12 days is close enough, but this will force all of us to be a little more vigilant. It will still be wrong most of the time, but a little discipline can't hurt. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/14/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasdaq Charts Same deal here. The shorter cycles are topping out a sideways up phase and the 10-13 week cycle wants to go into one, but longer waves are so powerfully down, that the short guys can't get any lift. Think of trying to make a U turn in a downhill ski race.
Looks like the trendline and the magnetism of the fiber nacho retracement level won this battle. Nice little whopsaw too. Make a little breakout action to suck in the chart boys, then WHOP! In bear markets, always assume that an upside break of a trendline will result in a whopsaw. Most of the time you'll be right. It helps to look at sentiment levels in judging whether a break like this is for real or a whopsaw. Ebullient, overbought sentiment readings are a warning of failure.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/14/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool Just what in the hell are these borker analcysts who've been making sell recommendations looking at? Oh, I get it, they must be holding the charts upside down. No that's not it. It's just a scam to help their market makers accumulate the gold stocks.
Long Bong Hit Bond yields are still in that base, getting ready for the next move higher.
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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