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10 Minute Bar Charts 7/16/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed automatically on the 90 day anniversary and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 7/18/02 1PM Terms and methodology Options market makers have done a good job of keeping the market pinned for the first half of the day. But the thing with opex week is that you have to expect the unexpected. There is simply no way to know when a big player may decide to unwind a big hedge and set the market galloping off one way or another. It's more likely to be up this time around, because options market makers were forced to write a ton of puts on the way down over the last few months. They offset that risk by shorting stock. The unwinding of those positions would require either the shorts to be covered, or new puts to be written. If they choose option A, off we go. The cycle that appears to be working over the last few days is two days duration, which can best be viewed using 15 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. The high on that cycle is due late today, with projections of Nas 1390, SPX 906, and NDX 1024. Sure nothing dramatic there. The dominant intraday cycle is 4 hours, which is not a standard length. 3 or 5 hours is more common. I guess they're compromising today. You can use 5 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics to isolate that wave. The high is due right around now (1PM) with a low due around 2 PM. That could stretch out if the longer intraday waves succumb. The 5 and 8 day waves do appear to be starting to top out. On balance, it looks like the market should start to weaken this afternoon, with a 5 day cycle low due Monday. However, there is no indication yet of a breakout of the narrow trading range. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/18/02 9:25 AM Terms and methodology The fucutures are a non-factor this morning. But it's still opex week. Generally, Turdsday of opex week is the day the options market makers try to pin the stocks, in order to have an orderly clean-up. Right now it looks like the 1 day cycle is in a top phase based on the futures. Lows are due at 11:30, if the 5 hour cycle is dominant, and 1 PM if the 1 day cycle is dominant. The 3 day cycle is uncertain. The 5 and 8 day cycles are due to top out today. Upside cmaps for that cycle were hit yesterday on the Nas. Upside cmaps for the 1 day cycle were also hit late yesterday. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
A Cautious Doc, Or Just A Chicken? 7/17/02 Stoolie "LostLosses" said he misses Doc's rants against Wall Street's inanities and injustices. Truth is, since being on vacation, Doc has had his hands full just getting back in the swing and keeping up with the technicals. Usually Doc needs to hear or read something that makes him really mad to inspire those rants. With Crapvision rotating more to our side lately, that's harder, even if they are just play-acting to the viewers. Most of the stuff Doc has been screaming about over the last two years has now become mainstream. The reason you pay Doc is to get the news 18 months before it happens, and right now, Doc is having a bit of a problem seeing around the corner. This makes him more cautious. Doc is in an uncomfortable position, knowing that the infomercial media has at last come around to seeing some things the way he does. Why, Crapvision has even taken to calling this a secular bear market, a term which Doc used from the very birth of Capitalstool in October 2000. But now that the consensus has started to shift over to our side we have to be careful. The light went on for a lot of folks in the last few weeks, and there was a helluva lot of selling in recognition of where we are. Could be that we'll need to wait a few weeks or more for the next wave to come along. Many stoolies have made some money the last few months. Doc wants them to be sure to keep some of it, and spend some on things that make all the stress worthwhile. Spend some time with family and loved ones. Get away from the screen and the market for a few weeks. The next few months are likely to be a difficult trading environment, with far fewer clear short side opportunities. Sector chart after sector chart, and stoolwether after stoolwether, have prices resting at or near the bottom of a long term or intermediate cycle channel. Unless we're going to have a crash, which doesn't seem likely with the Feed in position to jam big time, the downside is looking limited from here. After all, we have come a long long way, and the averages actually overshot the downside projections that were prevalent until last week. Today's revised projections suggest that the 10-13 week cycle low is in, or almost in. Until there's more clarity on the charts, Doc wants to be careful, and wants you stoolies to be careful too. There's nothing wrong with cash, moreover, when the picture is unclear as it is right now. We may not be at "The Bottom" but we're close enough to an intermediate low to make Doc go, "Cluck cluck, cluck cluck.." The Feed drained reserves again today, doing $1.75 billion in overnight repos, for a net drain of $1.5 billion after only partially replacing yesterday's $3.25 billion. The market was able to buck the two day trend of draining probably as a result of the unwinding of options positions, or some other "unnatural act." The total Feed is near the lower
band of the 10% annual growth channel the Fed has been targeting
for its toilet paper inventory. If they run true to form, the draining
will stop, and they will begin pumping within a day or two. The Fast Feedometer (light gray)
remains below the Slow Feedometer, but the uptrend hasn't been broken, and
the Feed is in position to begin pumping again. The stock market may
be temporarily sold out, so any big Feeding has the potential to
"take." For now the picture is inconclusive, but we'll
need to keep an eye on this. It's best not to anticipate what Al will or
won't do. But whereas Doc felt for the last few months that Feeding would
not help the market, liquidity at the Gang of 22 has been building, and if
that continues, at this point it may be good for a pop in the market. We'
don't want to trade on this basis, but it doesn't hurt to be aware, and
have our antennae up. The Mortgage Bonkers Association
released their weekly applications index today. This index is important
because it has a direct relationship to money and credit as reflected in
the M3 and MZM data, and is a leading indicator because the balance of the
loans are not funded for four to eight weeks. Mortgage apps were down in
the week ended July 12, but that may be a distortion as a result of a ridiculously
large seasonal adjustment last week.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The Sphincters Index gained 5, after being up as much as 26 at the open. The churning of the last few days is pulling the cmaps up. The 10-13 week cycle low is either in already, or it's close. I'd be using weakness to get out of short position trades on that cycle, in spite of the fact that it this point the up phase doesn't look like it will be anything more than a sideways churn. The easy money has been made. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, turned up, but not enough yet to confirm the low. Doc admits to being guilty of anticipating. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) continued to head down. The 29 day rate of change is flat at low levels, still confirming a stable downtrend. This indicator should stabilize and turn up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle turns. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) is still meandering at weak levels. A solid uptick is required to signal reversal. The VIX fell to 39.80, still within the Stool Band projection channel on the inverted scale chart. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal is generated when the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. At this point that will be a reading of more than 50. But as Doc has repeatedly stressed, we won't know where the extreme is until after the index finally turns. For example, there is no reason why the VIX might not exceed September's levels, when it remained below the outer stool band for 5 days before turning. During that period, the SPX dropped as much as 150 points, and approximately 120 on a closing basis. A turn from this level would probably signal no more than a short term reaction rally, or a sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle
oscillator continues to drift lower, but the drift is slowing and
beginning to look "bottomish". The trading
stoolicator is stalling, and in position to turn up. But unitl it upticks,
the bias will remain to the downside. The short cycle oscillator is
on the cusp of an upturn. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is
flat in negative territory, but time is becoming a factor, and the upturn
when it comes should be respected. The bottom window is open over the next
15 days and the new downside projections have been met. In spite of the
fact that the indicators have not turned, the probability is growing that
they will within the next couple of days. It does not look like the market
will crash from here, and it isn't worth playing for the crash. If it
does, hopefully we will recognize it when it starts. But there's never
been a crash this late in a bear market and it doesn't look like this one
will be any different. If the bottom is in, we need
to look at fiber nacho reflux levels to see what's up. There's a level
every 10 points or so. Even though a cycle low is near or in place, any
rally attempt is going to have tough sledding. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/17/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The picture on the Nas is even more complex, as the swup continued with a 22 point gain. All key oscillators are signaling that the up phase is under way, but the cmaps still indicate the possibility of lower lows. There's no sign that this will be anything more than a weak consolidation, so far. Trend resistance should be ferocious in the low 1400's. Perhaps the most probable scenario is a 1275 to 1425 trading range over the next couple of weeks. It's too early to look forward to the fall, but from a cyclical perspective it's possible that the market's final death plunge will come in the September October time period, as it has so many times in the past. The thing to do now is watch and study, and wait for for greater clarity. We don't have to be "in" the market all the time, especially during options expiration week.
There are
multiple fiber nacho reflux levels in the 1410-20 and 1435-40 area. Recall
from last night's chart that the 1365 area is a
multiple support zone. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/17/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) Bond yields are also in a
sideways up phase. We'll have to wait for the verdict as to which way they
are going to break. For the most part, there's little change from yesterday's suctor review. Here's a representative sample. The dirty
dirty SOX has been in a sideways up phase for a couple of weeks and pulled
back from the top of the channel yesterday. The short cycle ozzie turned
down. Looks like a 340-410 trading range for awhile. The
biodrechs are also in an up phase for all cycles up to six months. The
move should turn the downtrending intermediate cycle channels at least
flat, with an upside around 360, followed by months of churning. The bank
index still has some downside vulnerability. The
networkers may head for a retest of the lows. The short cycle oscillator
is overbought and toppy. The rout in
Retail is still accelerating headed for a test of the September low at
250. The swup in
telecom should run into trouble here, with the short cycle overbought and
topping out near the upper channel bands of the intermediate trend. Heard
there's a little problem in the AhOL this morning. Why aren't we
surprised. A hopeless case. With the 800
pound gorilla sick as a dog, can the market go anywhere? Doc suspects
that Big Poo will just churn along in this swup for a few weeks, then
break down again. Nice linear
trend in General Motors. You may be unfamiliar with GM. It's a mortgage
and consumer finance company. Should go sideways for a few days, then
plotz some more. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness
Uncle Buck shows no sign of getting better. Golden Stool The sideways
down phase in the golden stool stocks continues. Nerve-wracking for sure,
but no damage to the long term trend....yet. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
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After
that ridiculous jam/options related meltup at the open, the Dow settled
down to a gain of 69. The 8-13 day cycle ozzie turned up, so let's assume
we're seeing a sideways up phase in those cycles. All other ozzies are still
down, but looking a little "bottomish." I've drawn two possible
centered moving average projections for the 10-13 week cycle low resulting
in a range of 8,050 to 8,450. With the cycle in its 12th
week, the low could come at any time, if it hasn't occurred already. This
is not a good time to be setting up short positions, and conversely does
look like a good time to be losing them and taking a breather until better
looking setups emerge. That's not to say the market may not have another
plunge yet, only that the best way to play it is on an intraday basis at
this point. And use protection. 
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
