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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Whirlpools and Confidence (1/29/02) Down, down, down down, doobey doobey doo. Once again they gapped up on the open, scaring the crap out of bears, to the point fo unloading their shorts, just as all the other up gaps have done in the past couple of weeks. And that's all she wrote. As you know, Dr. Stool has been thinking that the fact that these gaps are becoming routine, is symptomatic of the severe liquidity problems that are rippling through the markets, and that those problems will begin to show up within the context of the market trend. Lo and behold here they are. Crapvision tonight kept talking about the crisis of confidence, another of my recent themes. Suddenly Wall Street discovers that its corporate clients are a bunch of cheats and liars, and the Street is selling as a result. Oh, please. If that's not a case of the pot calling the kettle black... The real crisis of confidence is spreading slowly like a the plague through the ranks of the small investors who hand their money blindly over to the gang of crooks on the Street. The real crisis of confidence has barely begun. The sheeple are only now beginning to wake up to the fact that the "pros" who are running their retirements into the ground are a bunch of incompetent fools and crooks, no better that the corporations they are in bed with. The level of public outrage now is nothing compared to what it will be. The real crisis now is one of liquidity. The big news today wasn't that Williams can't announce its earnings or that PNC financial has to restate earnings. The most important news was the problem of FleetBoston. Fleet's Enema lies in the fact that it's bowels are loaded with loans to Argentina. Ooops. Big diarhea. This is a problem for any bank, but because of who Fleet is, it becomes an even bigger problem for all of us. Fleet owns Crook and Reilly, the discount broker, no a big deal. Fleet also owns U.S. Clearing, one of the largest stock clearing firms on the Street. That's no big deal either, although it could become one. What is a big deal right now is that Fleet is the third largest specialist firm on the NYSE! How did Fleet become the third largest specialist firm? They bought the Meehan Specialist firm. When did they buy it? Why in July of 2000 of course, just as the bear market was getting started. Clearly, these guys are not the most astute bankers, or the most astute investors. But of course, next to JP Morgan Choke, they are relative geniuses. Here we are with a big troubled bank making a market in 427 stocks on the NYSE, including 85 on the S&P 500 and 9 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, names like Coca Cola, General Electric, General Motors, Home Depot and WalFart. Gee, and guess who is the market maker for good old JPM? You got it, Fleet. Oh, and here's one they no longer handle for some reason. Company called Enron. Can you imagine the terrific pounding Fleet took when that stock collapsed. Remember, it's their job to buy when no one else will. They were forced to take all comers all the way down from 90 bucks to zip. How many billions was that loss? And that little collapse in the Williams Cos. today?. Who do you think handles that stock? Right, Fleet, the Enema Company. Fleet makes the market in 30% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average! They have severe and growing problems due to their Argentine loans, and other, ahem, timely investments. They bought Meehan at the worst possible time. You gotta figure when the Specialist is selling itself to you, that you are getting the shit end of the stick. And they got stuck making a market in the biggest stock collapse in history, and godknows whatever other horseshit loans and investments they've made. Now they are being pounded by, and contributing to, the pounding of Williams. Just how well are they going to be able to support GE, and GM, and WalFart? (Which completed its Whaopsaw today, by the way) Not very well is my guess. This is a not just another big bank on the ropes. How much market depth can this firm provide when they have to liquidate themselves. This does not bode well for stocks, especially those that Fleet Meehan handles. So the process of market losses now becomes self reinforcing. The depth and liquidity no longer exist for the market makers to act as the FEED's proxy in supporting stock prices. The moment of the straw breaking the camel's back, the one we've been waiting for, lo these many months, has finally arrived. Our thousand point Dow down day is swirling around out there, and the giant sucking market is closer than you think. SPX Charts The Sphincters dumped 32.42 or 2.8% after the traditional 5 point opening jam. (The Specialists and market makers tried their best, they really did.) The sheeple were having none of it. Would you look at that gorgeous top pattern, one of the rarest of Dr. Stool's Rare chart patterns! It's the Two Headed Hunchback. The VIX spiked into neutral territory, but it is still in a topping pattern. Options traders and hedgers continue to mimic their nonchalant behavior of last summer. Momentum is just starting to break down after 3 months of distribution. This move, has a long, long way to go.
The short cycle oscillator broke. The down phase of the 10-13 week cycle has 6 to 8 weeks to go. The down phase of the intermediate wave could go on for months beyond that. We are looking at a horrendous, long period of grinding down that could ultimately lead to the 4 year cycle low in the second half. By then the index will be off the bottom of this chart, that's for sure.
The next fibbing nacho retracement level is at 1090, where there's a downtrending line soon to be formerly known as support. The next level down with a stronger level which will eventually be formerly known as support is at 1060.
Nasdaq Charts The Nasty got pounded for 50.92 after gapping up, what else, and running up 16 points. After that it was straight down. There are a couple of levels formerly known as support around and just below the close of 1893. Let's see them gap that in the morning. It should get through there like a knife through....well, like a knife through air. Note what happened within a few days after the 6 month cycle indicator first went negative in August. This should make that look like a just a little bear cub Sunday School picnic.
Sucktor Watch Here's what happens when you get the best and the brightest financiers in the world all loaded in one index. Look out world, the bonkers are gonna get ya! These idiots and crooks have a stinking cost of funds of one and three quarters freakin' percent and they can't make money because they have no idea whatsoever how to manage risk, other than to always take on more, then try to hide it. We, the people, are going over the cliff with these cretins, these bums. There certainly should be no surprise here to good chart readers. Short term distribution has been under way since mid-November, and the sell signals were all in place at the beginning of January.
It calls itself IBM but from our perspective it's You BM! Good thing Fleet isn't their Specialist too. Doesn't matter, the stock is still crap. Look at this chart. Look where the distribution began. Mid October! Look how clear the sell signals were through late December and early January. No excuses. We saw this coming. And don't you worry about that Dover Sole thing the oscillators look like they're approaching. Bears like this can eat tons of Dover Sole before they're through.
Below is Fleet's current problem, Williams. Fleet's gotta be choking on this stuff. First Enron, now this. Not to mention JPM. And it's only the beginning. In the great tradition established by the Bank of New England, or BONE for short, which we the taxpayers ended up owning because of their billions in bonehead real estate loans in the late 80's, Fleet's will eventually become another ward of the public treasury. After all, it's the same people. Fleet was handed the spoils of that mess by our gummit regulators in their infinite wisdom. But do we send these crooks to jail. Nope, just bail 'em out and give 'em their old jobs back with a new name. And you wonder why I'm pissed off.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/29/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/29/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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