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10 Minute Bar Charts 7/16/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Subscription Renewals are coming up! Did you subscribe nearly 90 days ago? If you want to renew, do nothing. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed automatically on the 90 day anniversary and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 7/17/02 1:00 PM Terms and methodology Oh, whip me again. The cmaps posted this morning proved to be the high water market and the market fell apart ahead of schedule. The 1 day cycle should be headed down toward the projections listed below until late PM. The 3 day wave has broken down, and the 5 and 8 day waves appear to be topping out. This swup should be coming to an end. This mornings surprise, may be but an ephemeral memory by tomorrow, but the current environment has been more difficult to forecast than any in recent memory. So my level of confidence in this one is pretty low, beyond the 1 day cycle low projection. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/17/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology Looking for 5 hour and 1 day cycle highs at 11:30 and 1PM, with cmaps based on the fucutures action, as shown below. Fucutures indications aren't always reliable, but when reversals occur overnight, there's no choice. 3-5 day cycle highs are due tomorrow, and again based on the fucutures should be higher than today's highs. Will post revised outlook, as soon as market action provides enough data. If you haven't done so already, take a few minutes to review the suctor charts and stoolwethers. Looks like the 10-13 week cycle up phase is getting under way. Whether it will show up as a spike or a churn, it's too early to tell. But it will be dangerous. For sure, the next month will not be a time to be adding to shorts on weakness in anticipation of a crash. We should be able to trade off the intraday cycles, on the basis of the cmaps and cycle oscillators, but I would not be comfortable taking any longer term positions in either direction. If you are not familiar with the cycle oscillators Doc uses, see Terms and Methodology, at the bottom of the page.
Al Sends A Message 7/16/02
The Feed drained reserves today, doing $3.25 billion in overnight repos. $4 billion in overnight and $6.5 billion in 5 day repos expired, for a net drain of $7.5 billion. Once again, the market pivoted at 2:30, just as it did Monday after the big pump job. Stoolie seamus tells us that the Fed settles at 3PM, so perhaps it's no accident that these turns occur just before then. The effect of the tightness should carry over into tomorrow. Only today's $3.25 billion will be coming off tomorrow. If the Feed is less than that, it's another drain, if it's more, it's an addition. The total Feed dropped into the
lower portion of the 10% annual growth channel the Fed has been targeting
for its toilet paper inventory. The question now is how much draining will
the Fed do. The Fast Feedometer (light gray)
broke down below the Slow Feedometer. If it happens again tomorrow, we'd
have to conclude that the Fed is in another draining cycle. That seems
unfathomable, and would that ever be bearish for stocks! Stay tuned for
tomorrow's report.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The Sphincters Index took a 17 point dump and is now sitting squarely on 900. Doc was curious as to how the cmap projections at the beginning of this move had fared. He found that the earliest sub 1000 projection was on May 27, with a six month cycle projection of 970, when the SPX was at 1070 or so. Then on May 31 the 10-13 week cycle cmap projected a low of 960. Those projections have moved down ever since, importantly, ahead of the price changes. The forecasts worked well. However, it is important to recognize that as the lows are approached, the cmaps can overshoot. When the time is right for a low, it is critical to be alert for signs of trend change, regardless of the fact that centered moving average projections point even lower. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, flattened and remains in a flat trend at low levels, signifying a stable downtrend. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) continued to head down, suggesting that this is a 6-7 week cycle down phase following an extremely weak sideways up phase. The 29 day rate of change is also flat at low levels, confirming a stable downtrend. This indicator should stabilize and turn up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle bottoms. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) is still meandering at weak levels. A solid uptick is required to signal reversal. The VIX rose to 42.05. This is going to make a lot of bears nervous, as they conclude from that, that the market is Dover Sole. But it is still within the Stool Band projection channel on the inverted scale chart and is not yet extreme. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal will not be generated until the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. At this point that will be a reading of more than 50. But as Doc has repeatedly stressed, we won't know where the extreme is until after the index finally turns. For example, there is no reason why the VIX might not exceed September's levels, when it remained below the outer stool band for 5 days before turning. During that period, the SPX dropped as much as 150 points, and approximately 120 on a closing basis. So don't get too excited about the VIX at current levels. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle oscillator continues to drift lower, confirming the downtrend. The trading stoolicator is again drifting lower. If it doesn't uptick, no big rally. The indicator going flat at this level indicates a stable downtrend. The short cycle oscillator remains on a sell signal. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is flat in negative territory, confirming that the trend remains down. The low is due at any time over the next 16 days with a target of 840-50 on a closing basis. It's important to keep in mind that it's a fluid target. How close is close enough depends on your trading time frame. As the low is approached, price can either move down to the projection, or the projection can move up late, a day or two after the turn. Prices are testing the lower edge band of the long
term cycle. It can drop below by 50-75 points, but it also might make a
rounded low, instead of a panic selloff. Day traders can still scalp.
10-13 week cycle traders should be prepared to close positions when the
indicators for that cycle begin to turn, or when it's clear that the
downside cmaps are met. Neither has done so yet. Looking down, the area
between 900 and 912 is a multiple fibo retracement support zone. If
broken, the next level down is 848-860. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/16/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas dropped 7 as the swup continued. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator are now signaling that the up phase is underway. There's also an uptick in the 6 month cycle ozzie. Does this mean that we should prepare for a big rally in the Nas? Well, you can prepare, but you'll probably be disappointed. In a powerful downtrend the up phase often manifests by moving sideways across the next larger channel. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have our antenna up for a rally to develop, but until the downtrend is decisively violated, it must be given the benefit of the doubt. The trend is your friend. The short cycle oscillator continues to bounce around neutral reflecting the flat indecisive short term trend. The centered moving average projection for
the 10-13 week cycle is now down to 1240 and the 5-6 month cycle low, now
due, is projected at 1220-75. The next couple of days should tell us
whether it will get there or not. These oscillator upturns don't
impress Doc yet. I think we will see those cmap projections, but will be
on the lookout for signs to the contrary. The
1365-75 area is a multiple fibo retracement support area. The next level
down is at 1300-1310, then 1240-50, which is where the cmaps are pointing. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/16/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) Bond yields bounced from
their lower long term cycle band, concurrent with an upturn in the 29 day
rate of change. The stoolicator is also in a positive configuration. With
the stock market moving in lockstep with yields this could be a sign that
both yields and stock prices will head up on an intermediate basis. We'll
have to see if they can hold the gains today. Instead of commenting on each chart, Doc wants you to note that in virtually all sectors prices have reached the lower reaches are long term channel projections, and in many cases, the cycle indicators have already turned up. In others they are poised to do so. These signals suggest that a 10-13 week cycle up phase is getting under way. What we don't know is what shape the up phase will take. It could be short and sharp, or it could be a sideways churn, where prices even drift lower for a few weeks or months before breaking down sharply in the fall. Today's action is important in that it may give some guidance as to what shape the up phase will take. Dirty SOX Aerospace - Wall Street's Favorite Flier
Biodrech Bank
Stocks (Bonkers) Consumer
Stocks - Where Wall Street Saw A Bull Market (Until 2 weeks ago) Just Say
No To Drugs HMO - The
Street Loves HMO's Homebuilders
- Air Escaping the Bubble IIX - Not
so icky for now Networkers Short cycle top, intermediate swup.
Small
Craps - What Wall Street is taking after loading up on this stuff. Retail - Street
Buys Wholesale, sells Retail, but not this time. Software
- May get stiffer ahead Oy Oy Oil
Stocks Telecoms
- Leading The Bull Market Higher Again, Doc won't comment on each chart, but he wants you to note that many are trading at their lower long term cycle bands with upturns in the cycle indicators. They are signaling the onset of a 10-13 week cycle up phase, from which we should either see a spike or weeks of churning.
Yes We Have No Infartion This is the
Golden Sacks Commodities Total Return Index. Al and the Street keep
telling us there's no inflation while working like mad to create it. Well
guess what ladies and germs. Here it comes..
Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness
Uncle is rallying today, but there's no significant change on the
chart yet. Golden Stool Yikes, the
gold stocks better turn up soon, or gold bulls like Doc may have to
re-evaluate. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
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The
Dow ended with a loss of 166. Al's speech was another dud. The trend is
the trend and it ain't over yet. The Dow closed near its lows, and on the
lower line of its recent linear regression channel. All of the ozzies are still
down and the 10-13 week cycle low projection has dropped to 8050. It bears
repeating that this is a moving target, and with the cycle in its 12th
week, the low could come at any time. 
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
