|
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Ring Around The Rosey (1/28/02) The markets were ended flat Monday after a late surge. Dr. Stool had guessed that this week would be one of wild volatility. So much for that. The Dow gained 25.67 on the day, the Nasty tacked on 6 and the SPX lost 22 cents. The morning was wild, with yet another gap open, this time up, and another immediate selloff. Can anyone remember a time when gap openings were the exception rather than the rule? The market's illiquidity on the open has been stunning, and it bodes ill for the future, when prices actually do start trending again. Right now they're trending all right, trending flat. The trading pattern for the day was gap up, sell off to the day's low around 12:30, where the 1 day cycle low was put in, then recover for the remainder of the day. At the lows, the Dow was down about 42 at 9798, after popping to 9895 just after the open. It closed at 9866. The SPX blew out to 1139, 10 minutes after the opening bell, only to slide to 1127 at lunchtime. Its rebound to 1132.67 still left it in the red. The Nasty checked in at 1959, sank to its mid day low at 1926, then snapped back to 1943. It was a tough day to make money. Of course the stock market sell off was led by a rally in bonds, and the rebound in stocks was marked by selling in bonds. The portfolio sphincters are playing ring around the rosey. It's a game that never gets anywhere, because there's no new money. Eventually, all fall down. Meanwhile, the market is going to be facing the same kind of crisis in public confidence as it did when Nixon tried to stonewall over Watergate and gas prices were going through the roof. The big question now is what will be the fate of Vice President Agnew, he of the supreme arrogance of power. President Harding backed him today fully today, in his refusal to cooperate with government investigators over his meetings with Enron officials. The next question is, is the President really so arrogant that the thinks he can get away with this, or is he just that dumb. The public, naturally, smells a rat. The public, in fact, smells lots of rats. President Harding is going to use up all that goodwill he built up as a result of the terrorist attack pretty damn quick at this rate. As the doubts and concerns grow about this scandal, as the press feeding frenzy builds, the market will suffer. Of course, we all know that Washington and Wall Street have always been infested with dirty, filthy rats (apologies to Jimmy Cagney). While the bubble was in-flating, we the sheeple were willing to ignore all that. But now, with the de-flating bubble, and our shrunken 401k's, and the sense that things still ain't quite as good as the gummit and Wall Street mouthpieces are claiming, the rat infestation is getting downright depressing. The public just isn't going to blindly hand what's left of their money over to the wildly bullish, see no evil, Wall Street whoremongers any more. The gig is up. Because everybody suspects that they too were in on the scam up to their necks. The poodits can cheerlead all they want, they can run money in circles from bonds to stocks and back again, all they want, but it's not going to help keep their fee income, or the market, up much longer. SPX Charts The VIX dropped below 22 today. It has now blown through the top of the stool band on the inverted scale. This is very much the same behavior exhibited in the June-July distribution phase, before the August-September collapse. In spite of what the analcysts would have you believe, this trading range is not "healthy." The sphincters continue to sit on the high wire.
The SPX continues to trade along the long term trendline from the September 2000 high. The combined effect of the shortest cycles is still up, but the manifestation remains sideways. Seems there's an undertow holding back the up phase. Might have something to do with waning public confidence. As for the 10-13 week cycle, recent history is beginning to look like the market has been in a sideways up phase since December 17. Last summer, the market did the same thing for two months. So maybe this thing will slime and slop around up here for another two weeks, if the bulls are lucky.
For you fibbing nacho fans, the SPX has retraced 38% of the mid January decline. OK so it has another 0.2% to go. If by some miracle they managed to squeeze enough to get it through there, the next stop is 1147.
Nasdaq Charts The Nasty could be building a "right shoulder" of a top pattern. Actually, it looks more like the Hunchback of Notre Dame. The short cycles remain up. Whether the up phase will actually be up in real terms, we should know on Tuesday. There appears to be a rationale for the index to shinny up the intermediate cycle with what little residual momentum is left from the fourth quarter rally. But it's a weak rationale, at best. The 6 month cycle oscillator is signaling that a breakdown in that wave is near. The 10-13 week cycle appears to be in a sideways consolidation up phase, and the short cycles are up. There does not appear to be a basis for a significant rally.
Time series analysis says the same thing. This is a consolidation before the next plunge. We may flop around for another week or three.
Sucktor Watch The bonds look poised to blow the roof on yields.
AXP reported earnings Monday. I don't think I want to own it.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/28/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/28/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
|
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK
