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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02, 9/13/02, 9/16/02, 9/17/02, 9/18/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/20/02 1 PM Terms and methodology If the market doesn't do anything, does that mean Doc doesn't have to update. OH, it doesn't mean that? Ok. It looks like the 1 day cycle high is coming on schedule, but we can't be sure. If the market busts to the upside above the 12:30 highs, then we have a turn in the 8 day cycle and shorts placed on that basis can be covered.
Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Update 9/20/02 9:25 AM Terms and methodology Fucutures are up, so it looks like our 5 hour cycle low was at yesterday's close, but the 1 day cycle i uncertain. It may have a little more downside until noon. After a strong open, chop chop! 5 hr- 1 day cycle targets are expected AM highs based on overnight fucutures.
Please Fasten Your Seatbelts, False Bottom Ahead (9/19/02) The market did not disappoint today. It looked like things were getting worse, and they got worse. Now what? More worser!! OK, how many ways can you say the same thing? New lows lie ahead with a minor bounce off the retest of the July lows. The bottom will be proclaimed, again, and the market will then embark on a sustained plunge well into 2003. (No not Dow 2003, at least not yet.) The only bottom in October will be a false one. The Feed drained $1.75 billion. They rolled over $2 billion in 28 day repos, and added $4 billion in overnight repos, while $3 billion in 6 day and $2.75 billion in overnight repos expired. The only expiration on Friday will be the $4 billion in overnight repos. The draining keeps the Total Feed locked on the center line of the flat trend that began in June. It's also remaining below the 10% growth channel and near the lower edge of the 8% growth channel that it's been in this year. Al looks like he's stuck in the mess he made. He is an old man, now terribly worried about his place in history. Sir Prints-a-lot, Promoter of Bubbles. Three trends are evident on
the Feed Index. One is the 10% growth trend beginning in May of 2001. Feed
growth has recently been at or below the lower boundary of that trend. The
blue channel going back to last December suggests that Al may now be
targeting an 8% growth rate. Then there's the golden box which says he's stopped growing Feed altogether over the last three months. One thing is certain, without major feeding, the stock market is once again on a death March. Whatever excess was built up in the summer was used up in the August rally. The
Feedometer theoretically
measures excess Feed available for bond or stock market jamming. With the Total Feed flat, the
adjusted monetary base is flattening as well. (through Sept. 18) What's this! Doc thought the
mortgage bulge would be ballooning broad money supply by now. But it's
leaking somewhere. The stock market for one, and perhaps the foundation of
the 700 story derivatives tower is beginning to crumble. MZM through
9/9 looks like this. And M1 downticks again, unable to
break out of its malaise. The mortgage bubble is not doing the job
of reflating like everyone, including Doc, thought it would, and there's
no trickle down. The Fed engineered a bubble, and what good did it do?
Look at the plunge in checking accounts! Data through 9/9. Seems folks took money out of
money market funds from late July through 9/9. Hmm, maybe they bought
stocks with it. Say goodbye to your money, people. Meanwhile banks are lending faster
and faster, more and more. All that lending and no money expansion? Data
through 9/4. Business sure as heck isn't borrowing. Evidently all that bank lending is in zero interest subprime consumer credit. Worthless plastic. C&I loan data through 9/4 If we're going to have inflation,
it doesn't look like it will be in the industrial sector.
All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The selloff brought the SPX to the lower portion of its linear regression channel from the August high. Watch for a bit of a snapback if the index breaches 830 Friday. The 17 day rate of change is still downtrending, while the 29 day rate of change finally, finally, broke down. Better late than never. A sustained tumble is now likely, although, not without bounces. We'll get a little pop from around the lows. Whether it's from slightly above or slightly below depends on whether the stage managers need to build more short inventory. If they do, they will not let the market drop through the lows without first defending them to generate a rally. They know they are going to get pounded with stop loss orders and panic selling once they break. So of course, Doc suspects they will try to hold the fort above the July low, first, get a little rally going, and short into it. For as long as they can. Won't be long. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator is now way below the level of the September low, but held again today. This is the lowest level this indicator has reached in this bear market, a sign that momentum is getting worse over time. The indicator is overdue for a turn. That turn will coincide with a temporary reduction in selling pressure, an uptick in short covering, and a bounce in the market. While the market should fall more from here, the really big move down will come after that indicator has corrected upward a bit. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator continues to plunge at a rate that's unprecedented for this bear market. It should be 3 to 6 weeks before a cycle low. Any bounces would be within the context of this cycle's down phase. There can be some fairly catastrophic losses over that period. The VIX rose to 46.16.
It is sliding toward the lower band of the inverted scale 6 month cycle Stool band.
A reading near 60, and possibly a good deal higher, is likely before
the next 10-13 week cycle low. As for where the indicator will
be at the major cycle low? God knows. The short cycle oscillator finally turned down, late, which is a sign of a weak longer term trend. This is another indicator in position to drop for at least several days, which is time for plenty of damage in a weak trend. Looking at the shorter waves on the price chart is making Doc wonder if the 6-7 week cycle low might not have been back at the beginning of the month. If it was, you can bet on a horrific plunge over the next 3-4 weeks as this cycle gets in gear with the down phase of the 10-13 week cycle. Doc is talking about the kind of thing that takes out the lows with a 40-50 point gap and go. How will we know? A failure to have a significant rally starting in the next 3 days would be a good start toward that end. The 10-13 week cycle has
begun to accelerate down, but is still at an extremely high level. Again,
room and time enough for a huge drop. It looks to Doc like the 6 month
cycle is starting also to turn down, along with possibly even longer term
cycles. Doc has drawn channels on the chart showing that the SPX could
easily break below 750 in the next 4 weeks. The 10-13 week cycle low cmap
is now 740. In the short run, we're looking at 800.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/19/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The Nas dropped to within a few points of the August low. Whether it will find support there, or gap and go is the question. They'll probably draw a line in the sand around here. But it's just sand. Oops, here comes a wave. All gone. The 29 day rate of change blasted down, finally getting in gear with the declining 17 day rate of change. The 10-13 week cycle is in a down phase that should last 3-6 weeks, plenty of time to do a helluva lot of damage under the right conditions, as Doc said yesterday. These are the right conditions. The 6 month cycle indicator is topping out. Very late, but consider that it was late at the top of the cycle in the summer, and the Nas dropped 500 points from the point of the signal. This is a similar situation, with the slope of the "up" phase having only been flat just like it was last May. The 4 week cycle has turned down. The 6-7 week cycle, at first glance, looks to be within 3 days of a low, but could still drop like a stone during that time. The cmap looks like 1140. But again, Doc is wondering if the low might not have been at the beginning of the month, which would make the current action just the early stages of a down phase. The key to this kind of ambiguity is to try to recognize its resolution as early as possible, then take advantage of that. The next few days should tell. No bounce from here, with a weak bounce from near the 1200 level would seal the market's doom. The long
term cycle channel has two possible paths. The lower one now looks more
likely. It's headed for a number that begins with "10" next
month. The early 10-13 week cycle projection is 1090.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/19/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool The 4 and 6-7
week cycles have been in a flat corrective phase for a few days. that
should last no more than a week or two. The 13 day cycle may have turned
up yesterday. The 10-13 week cycle still looks like it's in a top phase,
but time is running out on that, and the gold stocks could be trending.
The 10-13 is a less important cycle in this group. The 4 and 6-7 week
cycles are more visible, than with the general market. There's still a
10-13 week cmap of 144. The chart pattern on the metal is actually
stronger than the stocks for a change.
Yields closed at 3.78, within 8 bp's of the low end of the range of long
term cmaps. The end of this bubble is near. Uncle Buck's Illness
Too much chasing nurses around the room killed Buck. The 6 month cycle is
topping out. More work to be done, but the lows will go sooner or
later. Aerospace- Turbulence and
hard landing ahead. Bonkers- The all important
financial sector may be on the verge of meltdown. Doc shows the possible
track. Consumer- Big question is
whether consumer stocks follow track similar to bonks or can hold the
lows. Retail- Stays in flat
track, or follow the dotted line? Drugs- They spend billions
on advertising, now they're gonna spend additional millions on PR. And
everybody hates them. Instead of all the ads and bullshit PR, maybe
if they quit rippin' off the American people they could help themselves.
Long live the generics. Meanwhile, back to the lows. Biodrech- This looks like
the six month cycle top. If so, the biodrechs will follow the lower major
trend track shown on the chart. Sick HMO's - Here's another
group the public hates, with good reason. Wall Street however is too blind
and stupid to see the obvious outcome when a company is hated by its
customers. Housing Bubble- It's over. Energy- Once 445 breaks,
look for 400. Trannies- Carriers could
crash. Small Craps- No doubt about
this pic. Dirty SOX- Bottom dropping
in progress. Possible long term track shown on chart. Soft Where- Looks like
another bottom dropping. Nutworkers- As usual,
leading the way for tech, and the market. Internuts- Yet another
bottom dropping. Telecommies - Heading for
zero, eventually. Stoolwethers Citicorpse- Throw dirt on
it. JPM- Dead horse bounce.
Dead horse not as high as dead cat. General Custer- People like
soft ice cream at 25 cents. Might like this at $24. General McClellan- Decides
to cross Potomac, but will hesitate before going over. Lincoln, losing
patience, will dump GM. Fat Ass- Fannie dropping
may be stopping. Need time to digest. But she ate too much already. More diarrhea
ahead. Wally having big sale soon. PiG- Lipstick still fading. Market Maker Management -
115 is crisis point. MM's make stand there first. AhOL- If it breaks the red
line (12), it's going to 6. Mr. Bill- Holds 47 for a
bit, then down to lows. Tell- Bottom dropping in
progress. DELL- Farmer packs it in.
ready to quit. Crisco- Counting down to
10. BM- Big stinker drops
another load.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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