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We don't know and neither do they.

Centered Moving Average Projections

What are centered moving average projections? This technique was taught by Hurst 30 years ago. It requires a charting program with the capability of offsetting moving averages in time. It involves first, identifying the cycle you want to measure by looking at past patterns using envelope analysis. Then take a simple moving average equal to the length of the cycle and center it in time by dropping it back half the number of days (hours, weeks, etc.) in the moving average. Next do the same with a moving average equal to one half the length of the cycle, i.e. drop it back in time by 1/2 the length of the moving average. 

Next take out a colored stock proctoscope, otherwise known as a marking pen, and draw extensions of the moving averages on your computer screen, fitting the projections to the price action beyond the end of the moving averages. (Hard to describe, get the book.) Where the two lines cross is the halfway point of the move. Calculate the number of points to the price high or low preceding the projected crossover.  Theoretically, the move should continue for the same distance beyond the projected crossover.

Finally, get a clean piece of toilet paper, spit on it, and wipe off your computer screen. (The marker, remember? Actually, instead of the marker, you can use the line drawing tool. On livecharts, just draw the chart twice, leaving the first line on the screen when you draw the second one with the other moving average.)

That's all there is to it. Works pretty well most of the time. Better than Abby, anyway.

 

 

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