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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Wildly Going Nowhere (2/11/02) It looked and felt crazier than it was, as the market gyrated wildly within a narrow range Tuesday. In the end, the Dow dropped 0.2%, the SPX lost .39%, and the Nasty was off .67%. That followed a big gap down on the open, then three waves of frenzied short covering lasting until late in the afternoon. Traders were nervous about what AMAT would say after the close. AMAT didn't say anything different. They're losing money and recovery is still out there a quarter or two. That prompted an after hours selloff which was subsequently reversed. At 6:30. the futures were near where there were at 4 PM.
The failure of the rally to follow through left bulls muttering and confused. Note that this is only a problem for bulls. Bears expect these things, and are fatalistic about rallies. It's hard to understand why so many would remain bullish under the circumstances. They must like being confused. Gradually, as more bulls become bears, they'll be less confused, and certainly happier. Aside from that thought, I couldn't find anyone else who said anything really stupid today, so lets get to the charts. The Dowager continued to trade in a line, as the old time chartists would say. To Dr. Stool, it looks like a sideways up phase in the 4 and 6-7 week cycles that will lead to a collapse one of these days. The little up phase in the 8 and 13 day cycles will be short lived. Maybe it's already over. I see a nice downtrend channel forming, don't you. Let's get to the bottom of that.
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SPX Charts The VIX, a measure of options volatility which traders use as a sentiment indicator, closed at 23.5, still indicative of a top. The parallels to last August are still there (red arrows). Intermediate momentum remains weak.
The short cycle oscillator says the market has
been in an up phase beginning with the late January low. It's a
quintessential sideways up phase. These are invariably followed by a
sharply descending down phase. In the game of trendline versus fiber nacho reflux, trendline won this one. The rally should have carried to 1116 to appease the fibernauts. It didn't. But tomorrow is another day. If this rally isn't already dead, it will be by Wednesday.
The cycle charts have a new feature, a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. Is Doc a wild and crazy guy, or just a glutton for punishment? Actually, this is because I miscounted the last 13 day cycle, and was a day late and a dollar short at the low, looking for it on Monday, instead of Friday. That's no excuse, because 12 days is close enough, but this will force all of us to be a little more vigilant. It will still be wrong most of the time, but a little discipline can't hurt. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/12/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasdaq Charts We see the same sideways up phase in the Nas, except this one isn't even sideways. There are two possible interpretations. Either this is a bottom, or the market's about to crash. I thought you'd like that.
Actually the 2 day rally looked like a simple retracement to the breakdown line, a very common occurrence. Hopefully if you look at the two circles, you'll see that the market is behaving similarly to its pattern in August, which is to be expected, given that the cycle phasing is similar. The outcome won't be identical, but there should at least be an echo.
Nas traders obviously are more fiber nacho conscious. Nice channel, huh?
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/12/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The reverse borking of Newmont the other day is almost criminal, considering how bullish the charts of all the gold stocks are. It's time for a pullback, but it should be shallow. I give it 50-50 that rather than pull back, it just keeps trending. The early stages of bull markets are like that. And that's where the gold stocks are.
Long Bong Hit If bond yields just bottomed again, we are looking at some real carnage in all the markets. It's too early to know for sure. If the yield gets back over 5%, and within the intermediate channel projection, it could be very ugly.
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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