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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
The market went every which way Tuesday. The Nasty was up 18 and the SPX, down 4. The Dow was the worst of the 3, losing 46.50, or 0.45%. In mid-afternoon it looked for a bit like the Nas might fall out of bed, but alas, the dipshits came to the rescue again with a late jam. The Nas tacked on 12 points in the last 10 minutes. It closed near the middle of its range, at 2055.74. The SPX closed near its low, at 1161. Doc suspects that this is all about high short interest and itchy portfolio sphincters triggering selective squeezes, trying to hold on to their ill gotten gains, and not so much "real buying". What will it take for bears to have faith, to resist the squeeze? Uh.... I wish I knew. Keep in mind that portfolio sphincters have conditioned themselves to expect bad news until midyear with this self serving fantasy that that is when corporate profits will begin to recover. This gives them a convenient excuse to ignore little things like, say, oh, a $60 billion dollar writeoff by A-HO-L-TimeWastin, a stock and a company, which is indeed a wasting asset. When a real company, Time Warner gets eaten by an overpriced, worthless, internet pop-up ad company, this is what comes out the other end - shit. And looking at the chart (see Stoolwethers), there is no end in sight. SPX Chart The 6 month cycle stoolicator has done one of those little dipsy doodle things that drive traders crazy. If only they wouldn't DO that! But life is about whipsaws. It's what you do with them that matters. There's definitely an art to reading whipsaws. I just haven't figured it out yet. This whipsaw tells us is that this cycle is running a little longer in the upside, than the indicator is timed for, so we may well see the common 10 month cycle instead of the 6 month. Or maybe the down phase will last 2 days, and then it's to the moon. Yeah, right. My guess is we just have to wait a while for this sideways 10-13 week cycle up phase to die an early death. A little follow through on the short term cycle indicator (21 or 33 day cycle) and that could be the beginning of the end. You see here a couple of intermediate waves in the final stages of their up phases. You don't see a single shred of evidence that the long term down trend has abated. Do you? Ok, so maybe it has flattened out a little. That's just the up phase of the 12-18 month cycle that began last April. That one's a granddaddy too, as the cycle is now past midlife. Should be all downhill from here, boys and girls.
Nasdaq Charts The "man" behind the curtain has done all he can to convince you, and the rest of the world, that this market is going higher. I mean, just look at those breakouts would ya? Are they convincing or what? All I can say is, good ole Dr. Stool must be some kinda dumbass if he doesn't believe that. It's just that Doc knows damn well that really worthwhile turns come off really big whipsaws. "They" have to break the previous trend to make it look really convincing. Of course, sometimes it really is a reversal. But not this time. How do I know? Well, of course, I don't know, but when I look at those intermediate term cycle stoolicators, combined with these channel breakouts, well, let's just say something doesn't smell right. But am I getting nervous? Damn straight!
Here we have a chart of another of Amerika's great companies, A-HO-L Time Wastin. A leader of the new economy. The largest media company in the freakin' world. Now I ask you, ladies and germs! Is this the chart of a new bull market?! If it is, the bulls are in a heap of trouble.
Sucktor Watch Does the Bonk Sector look like an industry poised to lead a bull market. One more day like Tuesday and it may lead the bear market. It certainly is weaker than the broader indices. But, you must admit, they've camouflaged it well. Remember, the Financials lead.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/8/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/8/02
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