Published 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and
the American Society of Shortsellers
Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair
Available by
annual subscription for $1929 or free
Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the
scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology. As always,
the Anals' Editor will be none other than the world famous founder of the
study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD.
The Anals will be replacing the nightly and weekend updates of the
major stock indexes. In the future, you'll be able to get your
nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right
here on Capitalstool.com. The Anals will be available for free, for
the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will
be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to
subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily
printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors,
such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes.
The remainder of the site, including The Stool
Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be
free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages.
Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription
period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay
buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution
will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several
of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free
lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or
illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all
who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool
Pigeons Wire.
Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in
honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was
pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37.
Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else?
$6.66.
As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many
prosperous years working together with you.
Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over!
Dr. Stepan N. Stool
Chairman of the Department of Stock Proctology
A.S.S. Endowed Chair
American Society of Shortsellers Endowment
American Academy of Stock Proctology
December 30, 2001
Nasty, Sphincters, Take a Snooze (12/30/01)
The Nasdaq was up 10.84 Friday, on a day about as exciting as watching paint
dry. The FEED was jamming as usual adding $8 bil in 6 day and weekend
repos, bringing the total for the week to an astounding $43.75 bil.
Seems it was an effort to prop up the credit markets. Not that much of it
found its way into stocks. Considering it was a light volume week, it
could have been much worse for bears.
Nasdaq
Cycle
Conditions as of 12/28/01
Cycle
Phase
Target
6
Month
Top
??
10-13
Week
Bottom
??
6-7
Week
SWU
??
4
Week
SWD
1910
8,13
Day
Top
2000
*SWD=
Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
The worrisome part of the above view is the fact that a low is either
near or under way in the 10-13 week cycle. That's normally not a problem
with the 6 month cycle rolling over. It is similar to the conditions which
existed last June, when the 10-1 week cycle up phase resulted only in
short rallies that kept running out of gas as the intermediate and longer
cycles were weak. Investors and traders were in no mood to stick around in
those rallies. The same thing should happen here, so long as all the Fed's
largesse is "gainfully employed" elsewhere, as Doc suspects. The
imploding credit markets should suck up all that liquidity.
The
linear regression chart show the Nas locked in a less severe downtrend
than earlier in the year. (grey channel.) This is a result of the 12-18
month cycle up phase that's been under way since April. (See
weekly chart). Unless that upper trendline is decisively broken,
nothing has changed, and you can expect the lower channel boundary to be
tested, and probably broken in the months ahead.
The picture is similar
for the Sphincters Index. In fact it looked like most portfolio
sphincters took the day off Friday, things were so quiet. The index rose
3.88, finishing in the middle of a narrow range.
The big pictures are
the same as for the Nas. Sentiment, in this case represented by the VIX as
inverted continues to grow more bullish and complacent, and is now outside
of the Stoolband. It is the considered opinion of the stock proctologists
here at the Academy, that this is a reliable top indicator. Not to mention
the fact that 99.9% of the poodits and anal cysts we see on Crapvision are
wildly bullish.
I have also added a Greeen Line Cycle Indicator to
the chat. This indicator was developed by the stock proctologists here at
the Academy to show the condition of the major intermediate cycle phase.
This is normally 10-13 weeks in duration, but just as with the five
English vowels, sometimes there's "y". This occurs when we
have no idea y the market is behaving as it is. A double top in the green
line is just one of those things. The 10-13 week cycle "should"
have topped in November, but it didn't, and we bears were, therefore,
screwed. The market has been known to do this to both sides, bear and bull
alike.
In spite of the fact that we are not quite sure where we are in
the 10-13 week cycle scheme of things, the 27 day rate of change indicator
is diverging from the index, suggesting that intermediate momentum
continues to weaken. This is probably the influence of the 6 month cycle
rolling over. If the 10-13 week cycle is heading up, the upside should be
limited by the longer term trend forces. In other words, a gradually
growing tide of investors, either deciding to put their money elsewhere,
or who no longer have excess cash to invest. Remember, it doesn't take
selling, just a few less buyers. And we may yet get some selling. With
short term cycles due to top out imminently, could be there are
"sellers waiting."
SPX
Cycle
Conditions as of 12/28/01
Cycle
Phase
Target
6
Month
Top
870
10-13
Week
Up
???
6-7
Week
Up
1175-85
4
Week
Top
1170
8,13
Day
Top
1160-70
*Sideways
Down
p: prelim
Copyright
2002 by Capitalstool.com. All rights reserved. Charts courtesy of
Stockcharts.com.
Capitalstool.com is not guaranteed
to produce a bowel movement within 6-8 hours. Capitalstool.com's purpose is to
present a point of view different from the norm, to inform, educate, and
entertain. The disclaimer, "We don't know, and neither do they," means
just that. Investing and trading are risky business, and no one has all the
answers. Most pundits seem to be wrong most of the time, and this publication is
no different. This publication does not recommend the purchase or sale of any
securities. (Dr. Stool keeps his money in the mattress.) The opinions expressed
herein are just that, opinions, not investment advice. Take what you see here,
and in other media, with a grain of salt. Read and study, everything you can.
Think. Use common sense. Then decide. You are on your own. If, like us, you
don't know, find a competent pro to assist you. Good luck, have fun, and send feedback!
Capitalstool.com
1929 Crash Lane
Browns Mills, NJ 01929
Capitalstool.com provides links to
third party advertisers. These advertisements should not be construed as an
endorsement by Capitalstool.com. Capitalstool.com is not responsible for the
performance or actions of websites to which this site is linked. Data analyzed
on this site is from sources deemed reliable, but not guaranteed, yadda yadda.
Caveat emptor. In other words, you're on your own buddy. Investigate before you
invest. Privacy Policy