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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
The other shoe finally dropped on Wednesday. The Dowager dropped a cool 212 or 2.13% to 9712 which is below December's low. The Sphincters Index loosened by 18.62 or 1.6%, closing at 1127, thereby breaking what the bulls thought was support at 1135. (Stock Proctologists know there is no such thing as support in a bear market.) And the Nasdaq was down by 56.47 to close at 1944. Note once again that the Generals are leading the retreat. This is not just a tech rout. This is broad based carnage, led by the Dow. The trading pattern for the day was like this. Gap down. Up and down a little to make an intraday double bottom, thus suck in the dipshits. Ramp up into a big finger formation between 2 and 3 PM. And then BOOM, whopsaw into a death defying plunge to smoke the lows in the last half hour. Still, amazingly, the bulls are keeping a stiff upper lip, not to mention hardening of the brain arteries. I happened to catch John Bullinger and a couple of other tight sphincters on one of the late shows on Crapvision. They were actually doing the "You're gonna be sorry for selling" thing. Somehow they construed what went on today as a healthy shakeout. The vast majority of Wall Street poodits and analcysts cannot get it through their lead lined skulls, and into their ever so tiny brains, that we went through the biggest bubble in history, and that this is the unwinding, that the trend is down, and is going to be down for a long long time. They simply cannot comprehend that the market cannot be gauged by the yardsticks and norms of the last 20 years, or even the last 50 years. I find this difficult to understand. Any good technician looking at a long term weekly or monthly chart can see what's been going on here for the past two years, and can see clearly that the primary downtrend wasn't broken by the rally in the fourth quarter of 2001. That 99% of the analcysts showing up on Crapvision, along with the majority of investment advisors and the like, could have been so bullish through last week, when the evidence was so clear that a top was in progress, should not be a surprise. It simply goes to show that the vast majority have their heads stuck up their asses, and don't really give a damn about capital preservation, or even making money. They just want to make sure that they are not thinking anything different than all their cronies. What the game boils down to for them is this. "Anything Abby can say, I can say better." These people have one job, and one job only: To help their trading departments unload stock on the suckers, that being you and me. This is why you should never, ever, believe anything the Wall Street poodits are saying. The analcyst majority is demonstrably always wrong, and the more of them that are saying the same thing, the more wrong they are. That's why, whatever they are saying, you should always do the opposite. SPX Charts The sell signal on the 6 month cycle oscillator got stronger Wednesday. The light green channel on the price chart is starting to bend down. Keep in mind that the 12-18 month cycle was in an up phase, so that the long term waves in red and navy should also start bending lower. At a minimum, the intermediate trend should carry to the lower bands, but we don't know how low that is because it's too early to determine the slope of the downturn in the longer waves. The other thing to keep in mind is that the channel boundaries will almost certainly be exceeded at the lows. The fact the the short cycle oscillator is at a level where previous minor bottoms were, is inconsequential. In a downtrend, this indicator will correct upward on a sideways price movement. Furthermore, it's dangerous to assume an upturn in the indicator before it actually happens, because, as we all know, bears live on Dover Sole.
The moment we've all been waiting for has arrived. The SPX has moved back within the bounds of its long term linear regression channel, and is falling well below the long term downtrend line. The whopsaw is complete. At 25, the VIX continues to indicate relative complacency. At the next bottom, this indicator is likely to be well in excess of 50 or 60. The momentum breakdown is in its early stages. Days like Wednesday will be the norm for weeks on end. The 10-13 week up phase was extraordinarily weak and short, the last breath of a dying bull.
Nasdaq Charts The Nas is likewise back within its long term cycle channels, which should begin to gradually move to a sharper downward slope. The potential exists for a huge downside gap as soon as tomorrow. Yes, the market could also bounce off a short cycle low. It would be temporary, and weak. We are staring in the teeth of a breathtaking collapse over the next couple of months.
Here's one that got a little ink today for screwing up. I am proud to say that this stock was one of Dr. Stool's original stocks in the proctoscope over a year ago, back when it was still Chase Manhattan. Their troubles are only going to get worse from here. Old Man Morgan is rolling over in his grave over all this. Check out the funky head and shoulders. Anybody wanna bet on what day it breaks down.
Sucktor Watch Everyone keeps asking for a SOX chart. Here it is. I say the SOX goes to 300 in 2 months. The next 50 points are begging to be gapped. Let's see if they are.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/16/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/16/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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