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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 8/27/02 1 PM Terms and methodology Watching teh intraday cycles, a 1 day cycle low is overdue by about a half hour here at 1 PM. Could be that the 5 hour cycle is the big dog and that the market will push lower until the next 5 hour low due at 3:30, which would coincide with the return of the 9-10 hour cycle we see from time to time. Hey, this isn't rocket science. Come to think of it, it ain't even science. We'll let the 1 day cycle ozzie (8 minute bars, 26/18 sto) give us the signal. But for now Doc will guess that the weakness persists until 3:30. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Mulligan 8/27/02 10:15 AM OK, Doc based his Pre Market Outlook on the fucutures, and pushed his drive into the water hazard. He's taking a mulligan. The 8 day cycle upturn has aborted, and the cycle is still in a bottoming phase. Disregard the previous 8 day cycle projections. At the risk of hooking my second drive into the trees and losing the ball, there appear to still be outstanding downside cmaps on the 8 day cycle at Nas 1345 and SPX 932. We see the possibility of big hunchbacks being completed on the hourly charts. The initial pop on the open fell short of all the cmaps. Downside cmaps on this move are SPX 935, and Nas 1360. The 5 hour low is due at 10:30. A possible lower low may come on the 1 day cycle low at noon. Update 8/27/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology We're off to the races this morning on the strong durable goods news. Good news is still "good." That won't last, as interest rates begin to skyrocket, but it's where we are now, still in the up phase of the 10-13 week and 6 month cycles. Fucutures are spewing projectile vomit upward. The 1 day cycle up phase which began yesterday should be over by 10 AM, but the 5 hour cycle is juxtaposed again and may swing higher until 1 PM. With the 8 day cycle headed up, the later high should be higher than this morning's. Looking for a high Thursday, but so far the cmaps do not point to dramatic upside. That may change, but for now I'm swagging that it will be double top.
The Biggest Fraud (8/26/02) An article by Marshal Loeb in today's SeeBS.Markethype so incensed Doc that he fired off the note which follows. The article presented 10 reasons why the egonomist Lynn Reaser of BonkAmerica Capital just "knew" that the bottom is in. 9 of the 10 reasons had nothing to do with the stock market. Doc's comments:
The infomercial media goes on its merry way pretending to present impartial, unbiased financial journalism. Witting or unwitting, they are little more than frauds, con artists, and purveyors of filth. I guess this is the price we pay for "free speech." Only it isn't free. It's bought and paid for by the Wall Street corporate mafia. Fortunately, the internet, with its mom and pop journalistic shops attracting millions of followers, give an alternative voice to those of us who care. Those who don't know any better will continue to be the losers. The small independents pecking away constantly at the hides of the AhOLs and the Crapvisions and the Whore Street Journals will eventually have some impact in bringing the truth to more people, and perhaps pressuring the big boys into presenting a more balanced view. But that's a long shot. In the end, most of the big guys will get smaller, and some will go away all together. The little guys will still be little, but will have a much greater influence. That's something we all can look forward to. The more sources, the merrier, Doc always says! The Feed sat on its hands again today. In this case, doing nothing is doing something. No Feed, no jam. There were no repurchase agreements expiring, and will be none again Tuesday. Watch what they do tomorrow as a signal. If they do nothing, the probability grows that they are gradually changing policy toward tightening. A small Feed would be an indication of steady as she goes with existing policy, which seems to be toward only slight moderation in money growth. Since the markets were strong across the board, Doc doubts they'll do a big Feed. Of course, a lot depends on how the fucutures and overseas markets do. Greenspewman has pushed the The Feed Index
back below the green line delineating 10% annual growth, and into the
lower half of his go no-go box. For
the last two months he has not grown the Feed at all. Going back 5 months
the growth rate looks close to 8% annualized. This appears to be deliberate.
We don't know if it's temporary, or the beginning of a major policy
shift. It's probably a case of, "nothing
else has worked, so let's try this for awhile." We'll find out
soon enough. The Feedometer,
which theoretically measures excess Feed available for jamming the
market, marked time. When Al is feeding the Gang of 22 heavily, either
stocks, or bonds, or both, will usually go up in price as the Gang puts
the money to work. At the moment, the Feedometer is nearing the low end of
its year long range. The rally was driven by liquidity from other sources.
Paradoxically, the draining trend over the last few weeks has run counter
to the market. But as long as he keeps Feeding to a minimum, the market
won't get too far. Portfolio reallocation alone is not enough to
create a sustainable rally.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
The VIX fell to 32.29. On the inverted scale chart it again moved into the top zone of the Stool Band. That's a leading indication, often accompanied by weeks of churning. The final peak in this rally will probably not occur until the VIX and the upper blue band touch. Often we only know that in retrospect because the bands are always gradually shifting their direction. The problem with any sentiment or overbought-oversold indicator is that what appears to be extreme based on the past may no longer be, as the market gets deeper into a long term trend. Sentiment indicators also move in trends and cycles. For example, 20 on the VIX has been generally recognized as indicating a top. This market could easily top out at a much higher number. At this point, it looks like a reading of 30, or slightly less, may be concurrent with a top. It's why Doc always says there's no such thing as oversold in a bear market. Well, there is, but we don't know where that point is until after the fact. Using the Stool Bands helps us to make the necessary adjustment because they move with the market. The
superimposed 6-7 week cycle (red line) oscillator fell again. So
far, it's a sideways down phase. The uptrend has only slowed, not turned
down. The 10-13 week oscillator is still heading up. The 17 day rate
of change, which is a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is on a sell signal
suggesting that the top may be under way, but the 29 day rate of change
(10-13 week cycle) is still in an uptrend. Until that indicator and the 10-13 week cycle oscillator
turn lower, it's safest to assume the up phase is still in force. The best
time to be short is when these indicators are in gear to the downside. Better
yet when they are in gear with the 6 month cycle indications. The 6 and 10-12 month oscillators are rising. That only tells us that these cycles are in an up phase. It does not tell us the strength of the phase, nor how long it will last. So far its stronger than the rally last October in that it has covered more ground in the same period. The stoolicator indicates a strong uptrend that is at least several days, if not more, away from a peak. The short cycle oscillator is slowly correcting. If it turns up without a price drop, we are probably looking at a move through 1000 before the up phase is exhausted. By one
count, the 10-13 week cycle high could be imminent, with a
cmap of 960. An alternative and probably more likely projection puts it 4 weeks out, at 1000.
The 6-7 week cycle high is due imminently with a cmap of 970. The 4 week
cycle appears to be in a sideways down phase with only a few days left.
The 8 and 13 day cycles were due for a low, but it's not clear that the
down phases are finished. There's a cmap of 915 still hanging around. If
there's no big selloff Tuesday, the cycle is turning up. Fiber Nacho Upchuck- If it
gets through 965, 980 is next.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/26/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts Rate of change indicators for the 6-7 and 10-13 week cycles were mixed, but their trend is still up. The stoolicator has reached the level where it topped out in March. This bears watching. The 6 month cycle oscillator rose again and is in positive territory. That merely confirms that the 6 month cycle is in an up phase, but so far, its slope is only mildly positive. It can come to an end at any time. The upside cmap for the 6 month cycle high dropped back to1435, and we almost saw that on Thursday. This will continue to change as the cycle begins to mature. The 29 day rate of change is
at the level where the March rally peaked. If it stops here, that means
that longer term momentum has not improved at all. Cmaps are now pointing to a top around
1435. If that number drops another 10 points, it would confirm that the top
has started. On the other hand, the
13 week cycle oscillator usually peaks several weeks before the
final price high (but not always). It's not likely that this rally will turn around on a
dime. Look for one or more probes to the upside. The first one seems to
have started.
Fiber Nacho Upchuck Levels- How high can the put this shot? 1410
will be a toughie. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/26/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool May look like
the beginning of the long awaited next up leg, but the oscillators don't
confirm. Need more time.
The downtrend holds for now, but the longer term indicators are slowly
turning higher. Department of Yes We Have No Inflation
You get the idea. Uncle Buck's Illness
Uncle Buck is starting to wheeze at the top of the intermediate cycle.
107.50 this morning is close to a short cycle sell signal. Biodrech- The 10-13 week
cycle is topping, but the 6 month is still up. Could lead to sideways down
phase. Bonkers- Approaching 10-13
week cycle down phase may be sideways with 6 month cycle still up. Consumer Sector- Same
comment as above. Retail- And here as well. Drugs- And again. The Real Bubble- Inflating
again. Energy- Gusher ahead? Small Crap- Downtrend
channel attack. SOX- Top of channel. Moment
of truth approaches. Fire your shorts only when you see the
whites of their eyes. (When the ozzies roll over.) Soft Where- This one's
getting close to trigger pulling time too, but not quite yet. Nutworkers- Another with
that pattern. CSCO- Close
to something. Breakout or sell signal. Stay tuned. DELL-
Banging its head on the ceiling. Will it break the ceiling, or its head? Fannie-
Spreading her way to 80? GE- Bumping
resistance with weak up phase still intact. INTC- Bad
news is good. Rangebound forever. Mr. Bill - What
a funny tease that guy is. Will he or won't he? Wally
approaches critical juncture.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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. (Sorry about the bull.)
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