|
10 Minute Bar Charts 7/18/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed automatically on the 90 day anniversary and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. PM Update 7/19/02 1 PM Terms and methodology This week, the call of the poodits has been "Too late to sell!" Yeah, right. So our meltdown is under way, and the 5 day low isn't due until Monday. The timing and cmap projections are as posted below. The projection suggests that Monday would be the day to cover shorts, but if anything changes, I'll post a bulletin here today, with a notice on Intraday Stool. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. On the other hand, if you made any extra this week on account of The Stool, send it in!
AM Update 7/19/02 9AM Terms and methodology Fucutures are weak this morning and just weakened dramatically at 8:45 AM. Yesterday afternoon, the cycles lined up for a weak period into Monday. It's starting to shape up as an outright disaster. There is great potential for a meltdown as exercised puts put unwanted stock into the hands of mm's and funds on Monday. Centered moving average projections this morning are based on the fucutures, not always reliable, but the targets are clearly below what would have been indicated by yesterday's closing price levels. Hence the ranges posted. I will be out of the office until mid-day. Next update will be at 1 PM.
Fool Me Twice? 7/18/02 We got a reminder today that it's never a good idea to anticipate a trend change. Cycle indicators on the SPX had never turned positive, and while they had on the Nas, it was clear that those indications were signaling no more than a weak consolidation. Now it looks like that at least one more break lies ahead before the intermediate low is in. More in the index discussions below. The Feed was drained again today, adding $1.75 billion in overnight repos, rolling over yesterday's $1.75 billion, and refunding only $4 billion in 28 day repos against an expiring $5 billion. Only today's $1.75 billion will expire tomorrow. The Fed's H41 release showed total feed yesterday to be about $5 billion less than where Doc's estimate based on the fed's daily data was. That data does not include the effect of some matched sale purchase agreements. The total Feed, which is the total dollar value of all the toilet paper held by the Fed is now on the lower band of the 10% annual growth channel the Fed has been targeting for its toilet paper inventory. When the Feed buys toilet paper from their Gang of 22 primary dealers, it puts money into the system. When they don't renew short term repurchase agreements, or sell paper to the Gang, it takes money out of the Gang's pockets. The more money fed into the Gang, the more likely they are to use it to buy stocks under the right circumstances, thereby jamming stock prices. When the Feed takes money out of the pockets of the Gang, they have to sell something in order to pay back the Feed. The Gang of 22 are not altruists. They will buy what works when they have excess Feed. That means they can choose not to buy stocks. Conversely, when the Feed wants its money back the Gang will almost certainly sell stock positions. We have seen the situation frequently during periods when the Feed is draining, i.e. taking money back from the Gang, that stocks have tanked after 2:30 PM. It happened again today. The Feed is at the point now where
any further draining would indicate a major policy shift. Doc has no idea
why it might do that, other than to raise short term interest rates in
defense of Uncle Buck. It will be extremely interesting to see over the
next day or so whether they begin vigorous pumping again to bring money
growth back to the center of the 10% growth rate trend. If they do that,
the stock market has at least a chance to rally. But without that pumping,
the stock market will collapse. Buying support from the Feed's Gang of 22, who
include the largest NYSE and NASD market makers and Specialists, is
an absolute necessity. If they are impaired, and at this point there is
every reason to believe that they are, and if the Feed is not aggressively
flooding the system with liquidity, then we are on the
brink of collapse. The Fast Feedometer (light gray)
remains below the Slow Feedometer, and now the uptrend is on the verge of
being broken. This is an ominous development. A downturn in the Slow
Feedometer would indicate that the Feed is no longer providing enough
excess liquidity to support stock prices. They may have decided to cut the
market loose once and for all. The next couple days could be among the
most important in world financial history, as we await the signal of
whether Al is willing to allow a stock market collapse. The only sane bet
is that he won't, and that we will begin to see massive
injections of liquidity in an effort to prevent a financial system
meltdown. The recent flattening that we see
in the Total Feed shows up in the Adjusted Monetary Base data through July
10. M1 and total checkable deposits
fell in the week ended July 8. This is not the picture of a growing
economy or financial system. One of the broadest measures of
money, MZM, flattened in early July, after growing strongly since April.
Doc's bet has been that the recent bulge in new mortgage applications will
begin showing up in mid July. Next week's data should start to reflect
that. Regardless of whether it does or not, the broader money measures do
not relate directly to stock prices. They do have a great deal to do with
residential real estate values as increasing credit is directly
responsible for the rise in real estate prices. Residential real estate
values will track the curve of this line directly. This is inflation, plain
and simple.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The Sphincters Index puked more than 24, almost all of it late in the afternoon. The drop sent the cmaps lower again, this time to the mid 800s. Since the 10-13 week cycle indicators have not turned up yet, the lesson is "Don't anticipate!" If we held our shorts this long, why not stay put until it is absolutely clear that the trend has turned? Well one reason is that, either way, whether too early, or too late, we'll kick ourselves. This is the trader's lament. We can never completely enjoy our profits. Because no matter what, we'll beat ourselves up for not capturing that last 10%. Well, get over it, and move on to the next one. So the question is, do we jump back in? I'd say yes, if you are comfortable with trading the intraday indicators only. Otherwise, I'd sit it out. We are probably looking at only another 5% of downside here followed by weeks or months of consolidation before the next big drop. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, dipped. As long as it stays down here, the market will continue to plunge. The superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator (red) continued to head down. The 29 day rate of change is drifting lower again at low levels, still confirming a stable to accelerating downtrend. This indicator should stabilize and turn up ahead of price when the 10-13 week cycle turns. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (navy) is still meandering at weak levels. A solid uptick is required to signal reversal. The VIX was little changed at 39.94, still within the Stool Band projection channel on the inverted scale chart. At a major low, extreme fear readings normally persist for several days. A buy signal is generated when the index drops below the blue band and then reverses. At this point that will be a reading of more than 50. Again, we won't know where the extreme is until after the index finally turns. A turn from this level would probably signal no more than a short term reaction rally, or a sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle. Perhaps most important, the chart should be read just as you would a stock price chart. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the September 2000 and March 2002 highs. The 6 month cycle oscillator continues to drift lower, and as day follows day, the rate of decline is looking more stable. The trading stoolicator also started down again today, another sign that an already weak market may be getting even weaker. The short cycle oscillator whipsawed again. As long as it remains below the neutral line at 50, the trend is down. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is still flat in negative territory. It is due to turn any time in the next few weeks, but has to be read day to day. Until it turns, the trend is down. As a result of today's drops,
the cmaps have also dropped. Yesterday, it looked like they were met. Now
it looks like there's more to go on the downside. Yesterday we had a look at
fiber nacho reflux resistance levels. Today, we'll look at the dump levels.
900 was a biggie. Now that it's busted, portfolio sphincters
could loosen down to 860ish, even, dare I say, 850? The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/18/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The swup that's been under way in the Nas for 2 1/2 weeks looks like it's over. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator and the trading stoolicator are still rising mildly. That means that the Dover Sole condition is being worked off through the passage of time with the market in a range. When the selling picks up again, you could see an air pocket. Cmaps point to 1250-1300, with the exception of the longer term measure which suggests that a low below 1100 is a possibility.
Last
night we looked at fiber nacho reflux levels. Tonight we'll look down.
1365-80 was a support level, and today Nas closed below it. Next stop
looks like 1300. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/18/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) Is it possible that the
bottom falls out of bond yields here? In the immortal words of stoolie
Fartpolio Manager, "Anything's possible." Dirty SOX-
The short cycle ozzie has flashed a sell signal while the 6-7 week cycle
has been in a sideways up phase. SOX should drop off the bottom of the
page in the next couple of weeks. Bonkers- The
financials are headed for a break of the major trend channel below
700. Biodrechs
were rebuffed at the upper band of their descending short term cycle
channel. Homebuilders
are headed into the abyss as the top completes. Goodbye bubble. Consumer
Sector - When Doc thinks about how The Street was pumping this sector throughout
the first quarter, it makes him sick. This IS a crash. The 205-210 zone
was probably a measuring point. Look for 190 and below, next. Retail- Same
comment as above. Drugs-
Throughout 2001 The Street said BUY! Sickening. 260-270 is a measuring
point. Look for 200-220 next. Even
Aerospace, which the Street still loves, of course, is not a safe haven.
It may have still more downside after breaking down from a big top. Small Craps-
Wall Street's absolute favorite two months ago. Proof of the "bull
market." The crash is still accelerating. Software
stocks- headed for another 20% haircut. Internut
stocks- Hit top of short cycle channel, now head for bottom of major
channel. Nutworkers-
Same as internut. Telecoms-
Same, maybe worse. Energy-
Think back a few short months to when everyone on The Street loved energy
stocks. If 470 doesn't hold, look out. There are no safe havens. Transports-
Half way down from massive top. HMO's- Wall
Street still loves them. Look out for more HMO bashing. AhOL- Doc
told the few of you who were around back in December of 2000 that this was
one of the worst deals in history, making Time Warner virtually worthless.
The stock was in the 50-60 range. Look for organized support at 10, but
ultimately, it's a zero, Chapter 11. AOL was the most overvalued worthless
bloated p.o.s. in the world when internut ad rates were 1000% higher than
they are now. Now what's it worth? The long term downtrend is
actually accelerating. IBM's
earnings popped the stock to the top of short term downtrend channels, now
time to go back to the lows. Old JP is
rolling over in his grave. Half way down. GM- A
perfectly linear downtrend. These things usually accelerate before they
end. Looks to be halfway there. Mr. Bill-
Earnings are out, sell signals are in. Should find temporary support at
45. Just printed 50.15 at 8:05 AM ET. KO-pectate
please. Here's what happens when you announce that you will expense stock
options. Eventually all corpses which use stock options will be re-priced,
whether they make the accounting change or not. It will be imputed by the
market. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stock o'der", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness
The "dolor" continues. Buck got pounded again last night, and is
under 104 this morning. Golden Stool The time is
right to put in the intermediate low, and the configuration is right. Now
all we can do is bite our nails and watch. We can only breathe a sigh of
relief when the ozzies turn up. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Renewals Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. Your trial subscription will run for 90 days. At the end of that period your subscription will renew automatically, unless you cancel. If you wish to cancel your subscription use the button below. If you want to renew your subscription do nothing. Your subscription will renew and your credit card or Paypal bank account will be charged. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
The
Dow stage managers showed signs of impairment Thursday. Through the week
we've seen a big drain by the Feed.
Yesterday, they tried to get something started. When the sheeple did not
come in to take the handoff today, the liquidations began. We have to begin
to wonder if there's any way out of this. 
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
