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10 Minute Bar Charts 3/21/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
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per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929. (Just kidding, details to follow.) Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. On or before April 1, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 for a 3 month trial and $74 per year thereafter, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. As always, I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Dr. Stepan N. Stool February 19, 2002 The Anals will be accessible by subscription only beginning April 1. The subscription form will be posted a few days earlier, but there is no mechanism for pro rating if you subscribe early. To receive the full term, do not subscribe until April 1. When you subscribe through Paypal, you will immediately receive a user name and password which will allow you to access this page. If you have previously sent a donation through Paypal, and you would like a complimentary subscription equivalent to the amount of your contribution, send an email to [email protected]. Include your name, your email address, and if possible the date of your contribution(s) through Paypal. Upon confirming your information, I will send you a user name and password. Allow 1 week for processing. By requesting and accepting a complimentary subscription, you are agreeing that you have read and agreed to the Terms and Conditions, which basically says that you can't sue Dr. Stool, or Capitalstool.com, or its owner, no matter what! (If you emailed me this week, Thank you! I will send your user name and password this weekend. Restricted access begins April 1.) Finally, for you luddites who refuse to use on-line payment, you can subscribe by mail. The annual subscription rate for payment by check is $99.00. Print the subscription form at the bottom of the Terms and Conditions and mail it in to the address on the form, with your check, of course. I will email you a user name and password. Allow 2 weeks for processing for payments by mail. Thank you for your support! Doc Stoolies- See Subscription Information Above! The market had a split personality on Thursday. It was gloomy and depressed in the morning, and manic in the afternoon. The much maligned and hated tech stocks took off in the afternoon, while the erstwhile darling big cyclicals lagged. What's it mean? Not a damn thing. Patterns developed on the intraday charts that told traders to cover shorts, and go for the long side. This looked like something right out of the movies, scripted and staged managed to perfection by the top market makers and institutional holders of the Nasgap 100. Once they formed those beautiful little reverse head and shoulders patterns on the intraday charts, they knew what would come next, and they used the turn to full advantage. The bet here is that those who jumped into the move as it was taking off were supplied by a market maker selling short. Conflicting cyclicality has the market locked in a range. Longer intermediate cycles still have an upward bias but the residual momentum is weak, and without renewed impetus, the upside is limited. But by the same token, the top will take time to form. It could be days or weeks. During that time we'll see a lot of this helter skelter, but little progress in either direction The Dow Jokes was the weakest of the major averages. It was unable to generate a buy signal for any time frame. The 28 day rate of change, proxy for the all important 10-13 week cycle, remains poised to signal the top but it's going to take a down day to do it.
They fed us a lot of economic data over the last two days. There's so much spin around these numbers, Doc thinks it helpful to look at pictures. Wednesday the poodits made a big brouhaha about record housing starts. That, of course, is on a seasonally adjusted basis. Here's what the trend looks like without the slant of seasonal adjustments. I'm not impressed. Are you?
There's also been a lot off discussion lately about DRAM pricing. Here's a chart from dramexchange.com. The uptrend in dram pricing has reversed. The SOX rallied on the strength of rising DRAM prices. After the close MU reported it lost $.05 per share in the last quarter. The next quarter should be interesting.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) Charts The VIX, a sentiment indicator based on options volatility, closed at 19.98 which was the lowest level since June 30, 2001. This continues to indicate extreme complacency, and was a number that when last reached, preceded a devastating decline. However, churning persisted for weeks before the real drop began. Over the past four years, when the VIX has dropped below 20, a devastating decline has always followed within a couple of weeks. The market crossed that threshold today. The question is, can we rely on that precedent? Four years is not much history. Prior to that the indicator was consistently below 20,but that was in a long term bull market. Price, and price based indicators are always the final arbiter. We see negative divergences on the charts, going back months. If the market turns down before the divergences are resolved, these rallies have been nothing more distribution. That is Wall Street's business, and they are masters of it. Resistance at 1175 held several times, and the 17 day rate of change turned down, signaling a probable reversal. When the 28 day rate of change follows, a downturn in the 10-13 week cycle will be confirmed, and the rout will officially be on. |
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Intermediate cycle indicators are still headed up, but short term cycles have turned lower. The 1 year cycle up phase has been under way since the September 2001 lows, and is now making a second top. This is not a new up cycle. It is a mature one, and the February-March rally acted more like a blowoff than a new bull leg. The top building process usually takes weeks. This one has been under way for 3 weeks. Time is now on the side of the bears, but the ride will be bumpy. .
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings of the market. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 3/21/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The six month cycle oscillator turned up in the Nas but it remains weak and in negative territory, and precariously close to a sell signal. This indicates an extremely weak up phase, and it could be a precursor to complete collapse if the indicator turns down from such weak levels. Short term cycles turned down, and centered moving average projections around 1950-75 held. But the 4 week cycle may be putting in a bottom here, and that could hold the Nas up for a week or so. The top formation is still a few weeks from completion..
The Nas had reflux from near the 50% retracement level.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 3/21/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Department of Yes We Have No Inflation For all the ego-nomists who keep saying there's no inflation, consider this. Industrial metals prices have been rising for five months, and classic basing and reversal indicate the trend change may be long term.
Bork Report As we all know, the act of borking is what happens when a borkerage firm analcyst shill pumps a stock after the borkerage's trading arm has accumulated a ton of it, either by design, or by accident. Invariably, the borking itself causes the stock to top out, because everybody who had even the slightest inkling to buy the stock, panics, and they all jump in all at once. Goodbye, pent up demand, if there even was any. The result is always the same. You get screwed, or borked, because the guy managing your retirement finds is either too stupid to know better, or he does and doesn't give a crap, because, after all, it ain't his money! Doc will check back on these borkings every so often to illustrate the aftermath. Remember, ladies and gentlemen, stock borking is what borkers do. It's their business. Accumulate inventory, mark it up and move it out, just like any other retailer or wholesaler. They make money the old fashioned way, advertising, PR, and salesmanship! Which brings up a thought, perhaps the greatest borking of all time was when the NYSE's third largest specialist firm, Meehan, managed to bork itself to the dumbasses at FleetBoston at the top of the bull market! The deal was negotiated in late 1999 early 2000, and closed in July 2000. Now that was a borking for the ages! There were no major borks today, so let's review how a recent one by Mohel Lynch (Oy, do we got tips for you) is doing. Mohel has perfected the bork to a high art. Invariably, time and again, they are able to strand their customers, and the public, at a stock's absolute high. Is it any wonder they are number 1. Way to go, you Mohels, you! Keep those tips coming!.
Golden Stool The gold stocks are getting ready to run, but may need one more recoil before the big slingshot up.
The 10 year yield is in a sideways short term down phase, and the intermediate cycle has turned up. Bond yields are headed higher, regardless of what the Fed does. They may mark time for a few days, but the next upside move will be explosive. Should be interesting to see how the stock market likes that. This reminds me of 87. Bond yields bottomed and started rising sharply in May. The stock market crashed in October, five months after the turn in the bond market. It's been four and a half months now since bond yields bottomed.
Doc is having second thoughts about Uncle Buck's illness. The old guy may yet rally again. This could be a quarterly low forming. Keep an eye on it. Talk about the Dollar on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
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