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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Mo Money! (8/15/02) This just in from SeeBS.Markethype. According to market strategoist Barry "Buster" Hyman: "[It's] a trust rally and the beginning of the restoration of confidence. [Certification] was not the end all, but it was a start. Now, however, we have to deal with the economy." Sorry Buster, it wasn't the restoration of confidence. It was an options related melt-up followed by massive Feeding on the heels of more horrible economic news. When the cycles are positive, bad news is good, because the sphincters and the hedgies all know that bad news means MO MONEY! The Feed rolled over $4 billion in 28 day repos. Then they came with the big one, $8.75 billion in overnight repos. This was in response to the weak Philly Fed report which reported a unexpected downtick in the market for cheesesteaks, scrapple, and soft pretzels. To make matters worse, rumors had it that Phillaruffians were losing weight. This news sent the market into a swoon, and Al, whose wife is from Philly, sprang into action, with a truckload of money headed down I-95 from the NY Fed for his cousins back in the old city. Let's see how much more funny Fed welfare is forthcoming in the days ahead. There are signs that the Bond vigilantes are saddlin' up. Gold stocks are revving their engines, and the long bond yield may be in beginning of a major bottom in progress. If bond yields even uptick 50 basis points, the mortgage driven economy will collapse, because demand will disappear. Al's gotta be real careful here about Feeding too much. The Feed Index, which is the total
of all the Fed's paper holdings, rose sharply on Al's pumping. The
question now is whether he'll hold to his recent 8% growth trend, or shoot
the wad and go back to the upper end of the 10% channel. Doc suspects
he'll hold it down while waiting for the mortgage bulge to work through
the system, but , we should never assumed anything with this two-faced
mush mouth. The chart will tell us what the Feederales have decided
in a few days. The Feedometer,
which theoretically measures excess Feed available for jamming the
market, zipped upward, but not enough to break the recent downtrend.
We need another day or two to read the Feed's intent. MZM, a
measure of the broad money supply, pulled back a bit in the week ended
August 5. Don't expect that to last, as the money from
all those new mortgage applications gets funded in the weeks ahead.
The mortgage application stampede really took off in the third week
of June. That should start to show up in next week's MZM and peak in
late September, early October, after it works its way through the system.
After which it goes from MZM to just BM. There was a big
drop in M1 and checking accounts, the week ended 8/5. The bubble trickle
down theory isn't working and the economy is taking on water and sinking
fast. The mortgage engine is spinning but both the rudder and drive shaft
are busted. Doc doesn't
usually include these, but he knew you'd get a kick out of them. First,
Commercial and Industrial Loans. Dead in the water. Then, all bank
credit. Now we know what that makes that top line rise like that, right?
It's called "plastic." The guy wasn't kidding when he told
Dustin Hoffman, "The future is in plastics." Another question
comes to mind. Why isn't all that plastic since March stimulating the
economy? Because it's just more borrowing to pay off all that
interest. Just remember when you look at these charts. Sure, they document what's wrong with the economy, but when it comes to the trend of stock prices, funnymentals do not matter. Only the charts can tell you where stock prices are headed. And right now they're saying, "up". That could change at any time, but that's the word for today.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment
VIX dropped to 33.07, but on the inverted scale it's not quite extreme, as
the Stool Band channel gradually flattens. Normally, at a top, VIX stays
between the inner and outer band for several weeks before the final
reversal. The superimposed 6-7 and 10-13 week cycle oscillators, as weall
as Rate of Change indicators, are rocketing higher, similar to their
behavior in October, an analogous period cyclically. . The short cycle oscillator remains at a high, indicating a strong trend at this stage. The stoolicator and 10-13 week oscillator, and 6 month cycle oscillators confirm the uptrend. There's not sign of a significant high here.
Fiber Nacho Upchuck Levels The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 8/15/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 6 month cycle oscillator rose again, (How, Kimosabe!) and the slower 10-12 month cycle oscillator started to flatten out of its downward trajectory. There's now enough data for the first very preliminary upside cmap for the 6 month cycle. The projected high is 1445 in about 2 months. The target is very preliminary, but it gives some idea of how high this may go in the event it's for real. These cycles are represented by the dark blue and light green channels on the price portion of the chart. The upturns in shorter oscillators continued, with the exception of the 29 day rate of change which had a minor pause. The long term trend of declining momentum peaks is broken, a sign that the 6 month killer wave has turned up. The slope of the phase is still not clear. It's positive, but we don't know how positive. If you're in puts (ptuey!!! ptuey!!!) your biggest problem may not be price but time.
The 10-13 week and short cycle oscillators rose. They used to say
don't fight the tape. To Doc that means honor the indicators. That
strategy will always pay off in the end. If you ignore it, it will kick
you in your end. True, all of us worry about stepping aside at just the
"wrong" time. Hey that's a given! You will sometimes. But look
at it this way. The market will be there tomorrow and you can only play if
you keep your chips.
Fiber Nacho Reflux Levels: Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 8/15/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The
stoolicator, as well as the R.O.C.'s strengthened again. The overbought
reading in the short cycle oscillator is not a concern because Doc
believes it's the early stage of the 10-12 month cycle upturn, based on
the time since the last low. If that theory is correct HUI should begin to
move higher, and the 10-12 month oscillator will confirm. The index is
currently in a sideways down phase in the 4 week cycle. The chart shows
two possible long term channel paths. AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! On August 14, at 10:17 AM,
Doc made the following statement on I.D. Stool: This is the bottom in bond
yields. For these two days anyway, he nailed it to the minute. If that
stands as the ultimate low, Doc was wondering. Is there nay way he can
have that electronically bronzed? So far there's no indicator
confirmation, except for the six month cycle ozzie. The call was based on
the long term cmap of 4% and the piecing of the lower long term channel
bands, which usually indicates the final blowoff.. Uncle Buck's Illness Buck's intermediate up
phase has established a flat trajectory. This "may" be a
blueprint for stocks. The dollar bounced overnight, but is headed
down again. The short cycle is approaching a low. Biodrech-
Overbought and hitting resistance- the central regression projection of
the long term downtrend. Bonkers have
expended a lot of firepower to get back to the centerline of the long term
downtrend.
AMAT-
Starting an up phase, but which way? 4 week cycle may have topped
out yesterday. Suspect this will just slither along sideways. Citicrap
looks extended short term, but intermediate signals point up. Cisco has
major resistance at 15. Dell- You've
heard the term crosscurrents. Here's an example. Heavy resistance at 28.
Is it the brick wall, or a launching pad. Watch this closely. Fannie's off
her fanny, but she's bumping her head on heavy resistance. GE- Enough voltage for a power surge through all those ohms? Looks that way.
GM- Signs
point to upside triangle breakout. IBM broke a
little wind yesterday, but can it cut the big one, the long term trend
line? It may, but it looks to be in the final week or two of this up
phase. Intel
doesn't have enough gas to break wind. This could be your first short as
the rally approaches the finish line. But the positive divergences with
some mo indicators are worrisome and need a downside resolution. JPM- Still a
weak chart may be getting close to time to short again. Mr, Bill
looks old and tired at 50, but isn't dead yet. Wally a Go
Go- You didn't know it was a mo mo stock. Headed for major resistance test
at 56. Looks like he'll blow to 61. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
. (Sorry about the bull.)
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