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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
"The public will not be able to invest in this bull market successfully. They will need to hire a portfolio manager to do it for them." So says Dick Hooey, the chief strat-ego-ist for Dreckfus. What an obnoxious moron. A loudmouthed, lying, sleazebag, mutual fund salesman. He honestly said just those words on Crapvision as Dr. Stool was doing his nightly anal izing. Needless to say, after hearing that, Doc needed no further inspiration. Hooey the clown is so full of himself, and so full of it, just like all the rest of his ilk, that he really thinks that people don't recognize a lying, stinking, used car shill when they see one. So let's take a quick look at Mr. Hooey's record. Like Fat Bastard, he is afflicted with diarrhea of the mouth and leaves a trail of excrement all over the media, for your ready review. Let's go back a year or so and see what kind of portfolio guidance big Dick Hooey gave you. In October 2000 Hooey said that companies like CSCO, SUNW, and ORCL had very strong long term fundamentals. But, he did admit to not knowing when they would bottom. Good for you Big Dick! Then later in October of 2000 he recommended GE, IP and PG. He's down 20% on GE, IP he's even, and PG, up a few per cent. In December of 2000 he recommended the "lead franchises in tech". I guess that meant INTC, MSFT, and CSCO. It's hard to know exactly what people mean when they say things like that. At any rate, the advice was lousy. In January of 2001 he said the risk reward ratio was very favorable, with 12-18 months of good market play. Time's almost up, Dick. Again in January, over a year ago, well before the February-March collapse and the August September collapse, he said that the market was transitioning to a bull market. He recommended companies with rising revenues and a good business base. Good advice Dick. A third grader could have said the same thing. He also recommended HD, INTC, and CSCO. At least on HD, you're flat. The other two, you're buried. He predicted that some of these stocks would rebound to their old highs on a 50 basis point rate cut. Gee, that was what 300 points ago? In April, he told people to sell cyclicals and diversify. Diversify. There's advice you need a portfolio manager for. And, of course, he was wrong. Cyclicals held up ok since then. Back on May 16th, right at the top, he said a new bull market was under way, that we were in a new era of high PE's due to low interest rates and that money would be coming off the sidelines because of it. Got everything wrong there. He repeated himself in June and recommended investors buy broadly. Not too bad. The market's only down 12% since he made that statement. On June 26 he said he didn't believe in the theory of the Fed pushing on a string,. He said the next 1 to 2 months would be a great time to keep buying. He recommended the borkers. Good call Dick, up about 3%. He's not so bad. Give it a week. In July, he said there were no signs of any big financial bankruptcies, and that that was a good thing. Spoke too soon, Dickie. In August he said we were in a borderline recession and a "slow bull market. He said the "moving average" was moving up over time. That was just a lie. He recommended European stocks. He said there would be more rate cuts in Europe than in the US, and the Euro would go to parity with the dollar. Wrong on all counts. In August, he said the market bottomed in March-April. Now he says it bottomed in September. There you go. Just like all the rest. Driving the rear view mirror. This is the man who says that investors needed people like him to make their investment decisions. Mr. Hooey is full of Hooey. As for the market, Tuesday, another good one for bears. Things steadily fell apart after another gap up on the open, on the news that the amazin' Amazon made a profit on some basis or another. The fact that AMZN made a penny was worth a jump of 24% in the stock, proving that we haven't yet left the silly season zone. It didn't do the rest of the market any good at all, however. The Dow lost 58, after being up 73 on the open, the Sphincters Index lost 8 after being up a like amount, and the Nasty lost nearly 48, slashing through the 1900 level to close at 1883. The highs for the day were 1947 in the Nas, 1135 on the SPX, and 9843 on the Dow. The lows were 1882, 1118, and 9696. The closing prices were not far off the lows at 1882.53 on the Nas, 1119,31 on the SPX, and 9713.80 on the Dow. In the overnight markets at 9PM ET US the futures are showing a mild recovery. It would come as no surprise to see yet another opening bounce on Wednesday, but there's no sign of a significant low on the daily charts. Thanks to people like Big Dick Hooey, the gradual destruction of wealth will continue on schedule. SPX Charts The SPX has fallen back within the linear regression channel dating back to the top in September 2000. The VIX shows that most investors are still rolling happily along in la la denial land. Mo has barely begun to accelerate to the downside. The market has a long, long way to fall. When the December low is taken out, perhaps today, the move will be dramatic.
The index is back below the long term trendline from the top of the market. You've seen a Dover Sole on the short cycle for a week now. As we know, bears eat Dover Sole. The portfolio sphincters are gonna get blown out very soon.
Nasdaq Charts The big Nasty WHOPsaw is now complete. They sucked in all the portfolio sphincters on the breakout of the downtrend, and now they flush. The bottom of the primary channel is at 1350, and is trending lower. The 12-18 month cycle is due to get even more negative in the months ahead. That channel will steepen. Again we see short term Dover Sole. When is Dover Sole really Dover Sole in a bear market? We will only know AFTER the fact. Anybody who tries to guess will probably have his head handed to him on a plate, along with the Dover Sole.
If you can't beat 'em sue em! Sue the bastids! A HOL Time Wastinassets has to do something. So the company that invented the pop-up ad sues Mafiasoft for its antitrust violations in destroying Netscape. I'd jump up and cheer, except it's just another cynical ploy by a worthless company managed by a bunch of cynical corporate shills grasping at straws. This stock is going to zero. They'd better hurry up and settle. Sucktor Watch Ok all you SOX nuts. Here it is, the chart of your dreams. Just superimpose the Nasdaq commentary right here. Next stop 400, then 300, then who knows. Perhaps Intel will survive, but I don't know who else.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 1/22/02
L-Low,
H-High SPX Cycle Conditions as of 1/22/02
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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