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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02 9/3/02, 9/4/02, 9/5/02. 9/6/02, 9/9/02, 9/10/02, 9/11/02, 9/12/02, 9/13/02, 9/16/02, 9/17/02, 9/18/02, 9/19/02, 9/20/02, 9/23/02, 9/24/02, 9/25/02, 9/26/02, 9/27/02, 9/30/02 10/1/02, 10/2/02, 10/3/02, 10/4/02, 10/7/02, 10/8/02, 10/9/02, 10/10/02, 10/11/02, 10/14/02, 10/15/02, 10/16/02, 10/17/02, 10/18/02, 10/21/02, 10/22/02, 10/23/02, 10/24/02, 10/25/02, 10/28/02, 10/29/02, 10/30/02, 10/31/02 11/1/02, 11/4/02, 11/5/02, 11/6/02, 11/7/02, 11/8/02, 11/11/02, 11/12/02, 11/13/02, 11/14/02, 11/15/02, 11/18/02, 11/19/02, 11/20/02, 11/21/02, 11/22/02, 11/25/02, 11/26/02, 11/27/02, 11/29/02 12/2/02,
12/3/02, 12/4/02,
12/5/02 1/1/03, 1/2/03, 1/03/03, 1/6/03, 1/7/03, 1/8/03, 1/9/03, 1/10/03, 1/13/03, 1/14/03, 1/15/03, 1/16/03, 1/17/03, 1/21/03, 1/22/03, 1/23/03, 1/24/03, 1/27/03, 1/28/03, 1/29/03, 1/30/03, 1/31/03 2/3/03, 2/4/03, 2/5/03, 2/6/03, 2/7/03, 2/10/03, 2/11/03
 Doc's view of the Street. |
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American
Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Big Fine Print Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method, and other techniques. This publication is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of the estimates and projections presented. The market may or may not meet the projections. Stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk. Yadda yadda. How's your motha? More disclaimers at the bottom of the page. Intraday Updates 2/13/03 12:35 PM Market is in a weak swup that should last until 2 PM or so. Then down into three day cycle cmaps of 803 +/- on SPX by end of day. 3 and 8 day cycle swup, probably weak, may follow early next week. 9:15 AM Fucutures rallied until 8 AM topping out at 822.50. Upside cmaps for that wave were actually around 821. They are currently headed down. Fucutures hit an early AM low around 815. That is also the 3 day cycle cmap. Doc is guessing that that would be hit by 10 AM, and that the market would then have a brief up phase moving toward 821 around 11 AM. The rest of the looks like a lower drift. Chart below. Get regular updates throughout the day in Stooltrading. Intraday Wednesday - They churned around a bit at the open, but failed to extend the up phase to the expected 11 AM. The early failure was a tip-off to a weak day. Since late Tuesday, intraday cycles downshifted to a three hour wavelet. They scalloped down into the 1 day low at 4 PM where one-day cycle downside cmaps were hit. 3 day cycle cmaps are slightly lower. There could be a brief spillover to the downside in the AM, but look for a swup in the first hour or so. Pre Market Update at 9:15 AM NY time. Get StoolieSignal Special offer here only! The cycle map below is en estimate of how the market might behave over the next few hours. Should the pattern be broken, the map should be redrawn to fit the actual. Cmaps and times shown are guidelines only. Cycles vary in wavelength and amplitude. Directional changes within an hour of the expected turn and a few points of the cmap should be respected. The indicators rule. Times and prices are the projected cycle highs and lows with cmaps. 5-8 Day Cycle______ 2-3 Day Cycle_______ 5 Hr-1 Day Cycle
Wednesday's
Markets MoGauge Weaker 2/12/03 The driving force behind the US credit bubble economy is mortgage creation. To get some idea of future liquidity trends, every Wednesday we take a look at the MoGauge, the weekly mortgage applications index, direct from MoGauge Bankers Ass. of America (MBAA). A nicer bunch of upstanding folks you don't want to meet. The numbers this week dipped, but remain high. Lower lows and lower highs suggest that eventually the index will break down. That would be followed by a collapse in broad money growth, and a potential market implosion. The bubble depends on high rates of new mortgage creation. Any uptick in bond yields will kill it. The MoGauge is the weekly Mortgage Applications Index released by the MoGauge Bankers Ass. of America. Mortgage applications get funded about 4-8 weeks after the application is taken. When the GSE's hold those loans in their portfolios, they then turn into money through the magic of money market fund intermediation. Broad money supply grows, and that flows into the markets and economic activity. Likewise, when mortgage activity declines, money growth slows or even goes negative. In effect, the MoGauge has the potential of telling us to what degree money will be added to the system in a month or so. Big jumps in the MoGauge tend to be followed by big stock market rallies along with big jumps in money supply. When these bulges subside, the market follows a month or two later.
The current softening comes with
mortgage rates reaching record lows. Demand is waning because they have
scraped
the bottom of the barrel and can't find any more borrowers, creditworthy
or otherwise, at these rates. Both purchase applications and refis were down.
What happens when rates begin to uptick? There may be a brief rise in
purchases, but refi applications will disappear, and they are 75% of the
champaign
music machine. Goodbye refis, goodbye bubbles. Tomorrow we'll have a look at the the updated Fed Turdsday releases. Fed Releases Turdsday last week Meanwhile, back home in the stock market, it was more drip, drip, drip, although it feels like the leak is becoming more urgent. Cmaps moved lower on intermediate cycles with new targets of 740 to 770 on the SPX and 1060 to 1120 on the Nasdog. Marked weakness in the next couple of days would drive those projections lower. The lows still figure to be in late March or early April. Short cycles, in particular the 6-7 week cycle, have a low due within days, but 800 on the SPX looks like a good bet first. Any upturn in the 6-7 week cycle should be short, and without some positive noise to give it a jump, it will be weak. Feeding won't help, assuming it comes, which it may not. Al is steamed about the bulging deficits and may have taken away the cookie jar. Doc's Pooper Scooper. Be a Johnny Applestool! Help spread the Stool! Feel free to repost snippets from the Anals on message boards around the web. Just give a link back! Many tanks - Doc The Feed added $4.75 billion in 8 day repos as $5.25 billion in overnight repos expired, resulting in a net drain of $500 million. The only expirations Turdsday are the usual 28 day repos. This round totals $4 billion. With Al treading water the last two days, Total Feed remains in a steep short term downtrend. We can only speculate that the reasons behind this are an effort to stabilize the dollar and stop foreign capital outflows from the Treasury market in the face of huge new Treasury supply. Al has also been whining about the deficits and complaining that the economy doesn't need more stimulus. The recent tightening in Feed may be the beginning of an extended effort to counterbalance the inflationary impact of growing deficits. Whatever the reason, what matters is the what, not the why. Right now, Al is stingy. Chances are he will only open the floodgates in the event of financial crisis. Which by the way is what he is supposed to do. Is it possible that as the curtain closes on his center stage career, he has at last decided to play the responsible central banker? Two
trends are evident on the Feed Index, which is the total Fed holdings of
loans and securities. One is the 10% growth trend beginning in May of
2001. The blue channel going back to last December suggests a 5% growth rate. Look at the 4 week moving
average (brown line) and compare it with the slope of the two larger
channels for an indication for whether the slope of short term growth is
slower or faster than the 2 longer term trends. The stinginess shows up as a steep downtrend in the Feedometer. Down at this level, Al usually starts pumping like mad. Let's see if he repeats from here, or sends a new message. Not that it matters. He can Feed all he wants. The Gang of 22 has no interest in being long this market. They have all they can handle digesting all the new Treasury supply. Goodbye Mr. Stocks. The
Feedometer theoretically measures excess Feed available for bond or stock
market jamming. Al selects a trend level he feels is needed to reflatulate
the economy. The Feedometer measures the difference between the apparent
trend target, and actual day to day Feeding (Fastow Feedometer), as well
as a four week moving average (Slowmo Feedometer). A break above the
orange trendline might indicate a more aggressive jamming policy. 10 Year Bond yields fell. Short cycle
cmaps moved down to 3.80-85. Even so, there's still no sign of a breakout from the
tight range in either direction. Dow Inflatables- Here's
what you've been waiting for with baited breath-- the revised 10-13 week cycle
cmap on the Jokes. It's 7100 +/- due in late March. The 6-7 week cycle
cmap, which is due within a week, has dropped to 7550. All of Doc's daily cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment Cycle Chart Short Term Cycles The short cycle oscillator stopped rising. Consider that if the SPX can drop 40 points while a composite of shorter cycles is rising, what will happen when the indicator turns down. Ugly. The bottom window is open for the 6-7 week cycle at a cmap of 800. The downturn due in the 4 week cycle seems likely to cancel out the 6-7 week cycle up phase, allowing the 10-13 week cycle down phase to govern. The 6-7 week cycle traders may do the ground hog thing. Look around, see their shadow, and crawl back in their holes. The 6-7 week cycle oscillator on the chart below upticked again. This is the beginning of a divergence that will lead the final low of the cycle by about a month. When the indicator turns down again, the market will be in the midst of an acceleration in the decline. The following upturn in the indicator would mark at least a short term tradable low. All of which takes time. The 17 day rate of change (chart below) remains in a downtrend. Until that indicator makes a trough and turns up, the market is going to continue lower. 10-13 Week Cycle This paragraph has been the same for days, and is likely to remain so for a good bit. Roughly 5 to 8 weeks should remain in the 10-13 week cycle down phase. The cycle oscillators continue to move slowly lower. The one in the top chart is in the bottom zone, but it can bounce around down there for weeks while the market trends lower. The flat movement below the zero line in the 29 day ROC also indicates mild trending which can go on for weeks. There will be no substantial rally until all of these indicators turn up in concert. The preliminary cmap for this cycle, which has been oscillating between 770 and 820, is down to 770. The 6 month cycle cmap due for a concurrent low is down to around 740. The cmap could still drop again in particular if the next couple of days are down hard. Sentiment VIX rose. (down on the inverted scale chart). In the context of the current cycle, the reading is neutral. The next significant intermediate cycle low should reach at least 50-60.
The 17 day rate of change is a proxy for the
6-7 week cycle. The 29 day rate of change is a proxy for the 10-13 week
cycle. The dark blue overlaid line is the 10-13 week cycle
oscillator, while the red line is the 6-7 week cycle oscillator. The VIX
is a measure of implied options volatility reflecting relative fear or
complacency. It is plotted below on an inverse scale to better show the
relationship to the price chart. The "Stool Bands" may reflect
either 6 month or 10-12 month cycles. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/12/03
PTT - Periods Till Turn Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. Nasgap Charts The Nas is expected to behave more like the SPX with the continued de-weighting of tech. In the interest of publishing the Anals earlier in the evening Doc is presenting the charts and data without commentary, as it is largely redundant relative to the SPX commentary above. Cycle Chart Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/12/03
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. Long Bong Hit - See top of page. Golden Stool 2/12/03 PM Another day, another drubbing. The increase in margin requirements is causing a huge shakeout. The 4 week cycle cmap is now 345-349 on a closing basis. Long term upside cmaps are starting to come down as well, now at only 385 or so by mid year. We'll have to see where and when this selloff stabilizes. Short cycle lows are due any day this week or next. Doc is expecting a pretty good snapback, but it will take months to work through the new overhead supply.
Charts as of 2/12/03 Close HUI did the down yoyo thing and could crack Monday's lows by a bit. The 4 month (or 13 week, take your pick) cycle has been in a sideways down phase for 6 weeks. The bottom is due any day now as are short cycle lows. Cmaps are now generally 125-133. In a systemic liquidity squeeze, gold stocks will get hit along with everything else. We don't want to see a rollover in the 10-12 month cycle oscillator. That would not be a good thing. HUI Cycle Conditions as of 2/12/03
Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle Buck had a bit of a bounce in his step Wednesday. Short cycle upside cmaps remain at 101 as the swup in the 13 week cycle continues. Longer term cmaps have risen to mid 90's by mid year, but may be as low as 80 looking toward 2004. Chart as of 2/12/03 close Uncle B and SPX (gray line on chart)
usually move together because Uncle Buck's index measures the flow of
capital into and out of US paper assets. The relative magnitude of the
moves varies and wide divergences are followed by convergence.
Central banks intervening to buy dollars are not
going to help stock prices, and cannot drive sustainable advances in the
dollar. Get StoolieSignal Special offer here only! Suctor Watch and Stoolwethers- Now posted on separate page. Updated each morning between 8 AM and 9:00 AM NY time. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. About centered moving average projections. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
. (Sorry
about the bull.) 
![[Most Recent HUI from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_hui_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
