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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929. (Just kidding, details to follow.) Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Some time between now and March 15, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 for a 3 month trial and $74 per year thereafter, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Dr. Stepan N. Stool February 19, 2002
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Wisdom of the Poodits In our ongoing exercise of reviewing daily poodit commentary in one big pile, where it belongs, here is today's poodit wisdom. Pay attention to the subtle difference between remarks coming from the buy side of the Street, and the sell side. [Dr. Stool's comments in brackets] Buy Side Poodits There is little conviction and a lot of confusion. I think there is a lot of fear, because people don't want to be blindsided by the next piece of bad news. It is a very intolerant, unforgiving landscape out there. Mental Institution Head Trader People are gravitating toward companies that have products and business models that are easy to understand -- they know soap, but they don't understand 'DRAM. Portfolio Sphincter It's going to take signs earnings are going to get better to get this market going. Accounting questions add to the lack of confidence in earnings numbers. Portfolio Sphincter People's expectations were way too high. Earnings will recover, but it won't happen overnight.'' Portfolio Sphincter The manufacturing report ``is a bullish sign,'' said Brian Slater, who helps manage $500 million at Condor Capital Management in Martinsville, New Jersey. Portfolio Sphincter Below the current, the economy has been improving far more than the market reality would indicate. And all things considered, the market is really behaving quite well today [Thursday]. But there's still tremendous anxiety; the market is held hostage to individual corporate news and accountability. Portfolio Sphincter Sell Side Poodits It's very difficult to pick out the overall trend by watching the daily action. It's a market of individual stock trends: for some stocks it's still correction time while bullish trends are continuing uninterrupted for others. Borker Technical Analcyst Until resistance levels are breached, any near-term rally will simply [be viewed as] an interruption in the S&P's and Nasdaq's downtrends and another brief rally within the Dow's trading range. Borker Technical Analcyst This thing is still trying to go up on hope, but there is no real conviction. That is why you are getting these wide swings. Borker Head Trader There are still a lot of issues out there with accounting. Almost all companies pay accountants extremely well so they can make their numbers. Borker Head Trader We're flirting with key technical support levels. Markets rally but then can't sustain. There's continued nervousness about accounting and corporate profits, but no catalyst to move us out of it. Borker Head Trader "We're near the top of a very tight and rigid trading range right now. Enron-itis has injected enough uncertainty that upwards moves cannot be sustained. Borker Strat-ego-ist You get the feeling people would like to follow through, but there's no conviction. We're in a range here. It's a mixed bag. We need to see a clear bottom before we can really move on. Borker Head Trader Others Equity premiums continue to rise in the wake of the Enron scandal and the increased scrutiny of accounting methods. This will place additional pressure on still-elevated valuations. How will investor trust be restored? Time and increasingly detailed annual reports will help. - Ratings Agency
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SPX Charts The VIX, a sentiment indicator based on options volatility closed at 25.82, still indicating the relative complacency, typical of the early stages of a downtrend. The picture remains remarkably like last summer's. Momentum is terrible, and has room to get a LOT worse.
The cycle picture is very muddled, but the 6-7 week wave appears to be dominant. It had a very short up phase. Yesterday's cycle count indicated that the 6-7 might top out as early as today (Thursday), and sure enough! The market could begin trending, and we may be looking at 4-5 weeks of steady declines.
The Cycle Conditions tables have a new feature, a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. Is Doc a wild and crazy guy, or just a glutton for punishment? Actually, this is because I miscounted the last 13 day cycle, and was a day late and a dollar short at the low, looking for it on Monday, instead of Friday. That's no excuse, because 12 days is close enough, but this will force all of us to be a little more vigilant. It will still be wrong most of the time, but a little discipline can't hurt. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/21/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasdaq Charts The Nas took out that lower descending trendline and the short cycle oscillator turned down. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is extremely weak, indicative of trending. The Nas has dropped over 400 points in 6 weeks, and appears poised to accelerate
The picture says it all. Don't bee surprised if the downslope sharpens.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/21/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The gold stocks remain in a corrective phase. Thursday's upturn does not appear to be the start of a new up leg. A sideways to mildly down down phase as momentum oscillators come down is very bullish for the intermediate and longer term, at this stage.
Sucktor Watch The SUX index has been under distribution for 3 months. It is primed for a massive breakdown.
T See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive |
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