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10 Minute Bar Charts 6/5/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and PM Update 6/6/02 1PM Coming off the 1 day cycle lows at mid day, I don't think the bulls have done enough to forestall disaster. The upturns in the cycle ozzies came between 11:30 AM and noon (NY) and they haven't been able to get it up much. So far it's a weak swup. 1545 is the key level formerly known as support (no such thing as support in a bear market) on the Nas. If they can't hold that, all hell may break loose. The 5 day cycle, and probably the 8 and 13 have topped out. That leaves a very long down leg ahead of us if there's no push to the upside this afternoon. The 8 day cycle's been dominant, so we could be looking at 6 days down if they can't hold it together today. There are no price projections because the upturn in the 1 day cycle is too weak so far to generate a turn in the half span moving average. It's too early for a 5 day projection as all. We are on the dark side of the moon at the moment.
AM Update 6/6/02 11 AM The 5 hour cycle low came early.... like yesterday. Current 5 hour low is due 10:30-11AM, i.e. now. 1 day low is due 12-1PM. The cmaps are very iffy on this cycle (What's new?) but the lows appear to be very close to current levels at 10:50 AM. Any more weakness today confirms topping action in 5 and 8 day cycle. The market's inability to get up off its butt raises the spectre of the "c" word. The next two or three hours could be key. The bulls need to get something going. Otherwise it could get ugly (for them). AM Update 6/6/02 9:15AM Lots of action, but no movement in the fucutures this morning. The action is confusing, but it looks like a possible 1 day cycle top on the all sessions charts. On the averages, it looks like the one day cycle high is due around 10 AM, but again the picture is less than clear. As for the longer waves, also messy. The 5 day high looks like its due tomorrow, but the 8 day cycle high could fall today, if recent patterns of short upleg-long downleg continues. If strength persists all day, we may need to reevaluate the bigger picture. Today's a day to stop look and listen to he market's message.
Not Another Bull Market! (6/5/02) Doc is running late and his comments are brief tonight. The Feed did $3.25 billion in 2 day repos, leaving $250 million on the table from Tuesday. That's a very minor drain adding to the net drain of $5.2 billion on Tuesday and an apparent total drain of $18.5 billion, after last week's gargantuan $28 billion Feed. We'll get the complete reconciliation from the Feed tomorrow night. The Fed continues to slowly drain
off the excess it printed to accommodate last weeks huge Two Year Treasury
auction. The Fast Feedometer, which is a day to day measure of
excess Feed, is back to a level that will not help the stock market. If
the market moves higher, it will be because of rotation out of bonds, and
the sphincters putting back some of the cash they raised in the
selloff. The Slow Feedometer measures the
excess Feed over 17 days, which is half the 6-7 week trading cycle. It's
starting to rise after last week's pump and this weeks incomplete drainoff.
The market needs weeks of consistent
excess Feed in order to put on a bull show. Without far more pumping, the
best the bulls can expect is a brief rally. Will the Fed give the market
what it needs? Highly unlikely given the strong economic data. Al now has
to worry about the bond market again.
Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The portfolio sphincters piled on at day's end, taking their index to a gain of 9. The 17 day rate of change, which represents the 6-7 week cycle, upticked, but did not reverse its sell signal. The 6-7 week cycle oscillator superimposed on the chart (red line with purple smoother) stayed negative. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator (teal) did not complete its top. It upticked a bit. There's apparently still a need for more distribution, i.e. the market makers need to build their short positions by scaring you out of yours before the ultimate breakdown. The 29 day rate of change is also still in a topping pattern. On the other hand, it looks like a positive divergence. Market makers will jump on this kind of momentum divergence to drive a squeeze. The VIX fell to 24.71. On the inverted scale chart, VIX broke the level of the last short cycle low and bounced off the lower inner band which has signaled the last several short term rallies. Will the market rally again like it did in early May? It has partially answered the question, but this won't be like the last one. The stool band is beginning to turn down, and cyclicality on the major trading cycles is far more bearish now than in early May. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear
regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs. The 6 month cycle
oscillator is stalled in negative territory, but again, the positive
divergence may attract trading interest from players looking at indicators
with a similar basis. The trading
stoolicator is starting to turn down but is indecisive. There's no clear
signal. The short cycle oscillator is sitting on the trampoline with
the broken springs. The 10-13
week cycle oscillator is only starting to roll over to the downside and
there's no signal. This is also a clearly recognizable level formerly
known as support. (There's no such thing as support in a bear market.)
Until this level is broken, bears need to keep their bearish
"enthusiasm" under control. Fiber Nachos are spooky aren't they? The decline stopped dead at the 61.8% retracement
level and immeidately retraced 23.6% of the last selloff. The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 6/5/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts More
Nasty short covering led to a gain of 17. The 6 month
cycle time series spread is still stalled, in a potentially bullish
configuration that has the market makers frothing about the squeeze
potential. The 10-13 week cycle
oscillator and the trading stoolicator are still very close to sell signals. The short
cycle oscillator is signaling a minor up phase. That 4 week double bottom is awfully ugly
to bears. We know there's gonna be at least a little pain. The
picture is pretty much the same in the Nads 100 except that the long term
channel is clearly down. Still there's that ugly double bottom. The Nas
bounced off a minor fib level. Going up 1600 is the first reflux area,
then if the rally gets legs, 1630 is the next one. Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 6/5/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn If yields are going to turn up, this looks like the right time. The problem is that stock prices and yields have still been moving in the same direction. When will that linkage finally break?
Remember
last year when all the poodits were recommending defensive plays like drug
stocks. Stock Proctology Precept No. 7. When the Street develops a
consensus, do the opposite. The SOX are
giving mixed signals. Doc thinks it's just finishing out a swup. We'll
see. The
networkers look weaker. The downtrend over the last three months was
actually a six month cycle up phase. Is it possible that things will get
worse? Yes. Department of Yes We Have No Inflation Industrial
metals prices are starting to fly again and it looks like only a
beginning. Mafiasoft is
still playing around that double bottom. The market remains indecisive
about it. Doc interprets the action as part of the ending of a 10-13 week
cycle swup. The stock
stoolies love to hate, JP Moogan has dropped to a level formerly known as
support and the short cycle ozzie is sitting on the trampoline. It's
bounce or die. The intermediate signals say die. But bounce first. General
Custer has been in a sideways up phase for a month. It's due for a little
bounce or continued holding action before the eventual breakdown. Give it
a couple weeks. All stoolies
are worried about this correction in the gold stocks. Doc is too. It's not
over yet. The chart of Harmony Gold says the correction will last awhile.
Support is just below current levels, around 14-14 1/2. Below that 12
1/2. Another one
stoolies hate is ACF. Eh, be careful here. We want to see the 10-13 week
cycle ozzie whipsaw back to the downside. Always use protection if you're
short. Henceforth and forevermore, if you would like to request a "stocko", please post your request in Dear Dr. Stool. If you have not already registered for the message board, please do so. The only required info is user name and password which you choose yourself, and your email address, which you can keep private by selecting the keep private option. Doc looks forward to featuring your ideas. We've had some good ones! Uncle Buck's Illness Buck is in a
short cycle up phase. The doctors are working feverishly to support him in
room 111. Golden Stool The
stoolicator's on a sell signal. Doc thinks that this will be a sideways
down phase but will have moments of sheer terror, like yesterday. And the
consolidation is likely to last for months. The long cycle cmap of 150 has
been met. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Previous complete issue with all features Welcome To New Subscribers Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. You may note some subtle differences in style now that this is no longer a free service. The perspective is still bearish, but it will have a more balanced approach than my message board ravings. You won't see me screaming "BUY" about anything except perhaps gold, but you will see stronger indications of areas and times when I think it might be a good idea to avoid being short. And I promise that I will lose my temper from time to time to keep you entertained! There's also a new feature, Doc's By Request Stock O' The Day. If you have a stock you're interested in, send an email to [email protected], naming the stock, and why you think Doc should look at it, in 25 words or less. 26 words, and you're disqualified! Those that look interesting, Doc will try to feature here within the next day or two. If you have suggestions about other features you'd like to see, send them along to [email protected]. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
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The
stage managers are playing on Monday's shakeout, which in retrospect was a
masterful performance. They were able to move the Dow up 108 today. Shorts
are getting nervous, which is just what Goldman, Fleet and BearStearns
want.
. (Sorry about the bull.)
You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
