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10 Minute Bar Charts 4/3/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Churnham and Burnham (4/03/02) The new rallying call of the borkers is "If you can't bork em, churn 'em and burn 'em." In the bubble market of the 90's almost all borks were in one direction, up. Now that they can't keep it up any more, they still do what comes naturally, generate commissions in whatever way possible. If they need to generate a little fear and loathing to move stock they'll do it, as long as they can bork 'em into something else. They'd rather not of course, because they can lose control of customer dollars that way, but, in desperate times, desperate measures are needed. Here's how SeeBS Markethype put it. "Analysts continued to be extremely active." That's putting it mildly. Check out this mush mouthed gobbledygook from what Mohel's Joe Oshit. "Evidence continues to accumulate that the semiconductor business is moving into cyclical recovery. At the same time, evidence that actual end demand is improving is thin." How much do they pay this guy? A lot, because he's good at generating commissions and trading profits for Mohel's enormous market making operations. That's why they're Mohel Lynch- Oy do we got tips for you. There were so many upgrades and downgrades Wednesday, I lost track. The only winners in this game of musical chairs are the borkers, because their market making arms know exactly what to expect on the Proctovision Infomercial channel, and in the electronic pages of the all powerful SeeBS.Markethype, and when to expect it. These big houses make markets in all of the stocks they are telling your portfolio sphincter to buy and sell. Ladies and gentlemen, this is like playing poker with a dealer who gets to see your hand and every card that's coming next. And people wonder why they lose money. They lose money because they think it's about investing. It's not about investing. It's about gambling with the deck stacked against you. The only chance you have is if you understand the tricks the house uses to cheat you. And even then it's tough. The new self-serving announcement on Proctovision about their analcyst disclosure rules makes me want to puke. They require the anlcysts appearing on the infomerical to erveal if they owne the stock they are borking, and if their firm acts as an investment bank for the borked stock.It is impossible for me to believe that GE's Proctovision thinks the only issue is the conflict between investment banking and research. Asking these shills, "ehh, dew yew ewn the stak, dew yew have an investment binking relationship with XYZ company," is a joke. Never once, not once, do they ask any of these crooks, "Does your firm make a market in the stock, and are you taking the other side of your customers orders following these recommendations, and are you acting as a shill for your trading department." We should live so long.
In the immortal words of the now departed Uncle Lou- And the Dow Jokes Inflatable Averages moved lower on Wednesday. The stage managers are having trouble with the curtain dropping on top of them. The 13 day cycle is down. the 4 week cycle up phase has been a miserable failure. It's just not there. The 6-7 week cycle can't seem to find the bottom that's coming, and the 10-13 week cycle is in the heart of its down phase. The 6-7 week centered moving average projection moved down to 10,050. Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX closed at 21.65, up from 20.68 Monday. It has started to move away from the 20 level that has delineated major turning points over the last four years. The SPX dropped 15% in the 6 weeks following the last such occurrence, in the August of 2000. The 17 day rate of change, a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is still headed down, with a low due within 2-7 days. It is now below the zero line. When that happens trends usually accelerate. The 29 day rate of change, representing the 10-13 week cycle, looks like a sell signal, but as long as it continues to creep along its smoother, the assumption is that the top is not yet complete. Down 40, and the down phase hasn't even started. That should give us some idea of what may lie ahead.
The 5-6 month 10-13 week cycle indicators have turned down from low levels, and in the case of the 5-6 month indicator, very early. This normally suggests extended, severe weakness. The short cycle oscillator is also turning down at low levels. That also often means a severe short term down.
1123 is a 50 % retracement of the prior rally from 1080. The next levels to the downside are 1118 and 1111, then 1095.
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings of the market. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 4/3/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The short cycle oscillator was rising for a week and the Nas was range bound. That's a SWUP or sideways up phase. The market range rattles while the cycle oscillator moves up. This generally indicates deteriorating psychology and demand, and is normally followed by a sharp move down. That's probably what started Wednesday. The six month cycle oscillator remains weak in negative territory, and is beginning to look more like it is turning down into a sell signal. From such low levels, this may be signaling complete collapse barring a whipsaw from here.
If the Nas breaks 1772, the next fib levels going down are 1715 and 1698. That should cover us for today.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 4/3/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Sucktor Watch- BKX You can't
see it on this chat because it doesn't go back far enough, but the last
year looks like the right side of an enormous distribution pattern. The
10-13 week oscillator is on a sell signal. Dirty Dirty SOX That chart the boys thought looked so good a couple of days ago, suddenly doesn't.
Stoolwether I talked about the reverse borking of the Big BM last night. Here's the chart. 100 is big time support. Do we get one more dead cat bounce before the bottom drops out? 10-13 week cycle sell signal from the top of the channel says we go straight down for awhile.
Stool Request Line Stock O' The Day AIG Don't you love those little roadside restaurant's where all plural word's on the menu's have apostrophe's and the special's du jour, are the Soup O' the Day, and the the Special O' the Day? I mean, what's with the damn apostrophe's, and how much do they save by leaving out the damn "f" in of. Well there's no "f"in this Stock O' the Day, either. Today's Stock'O was requested by your fellow stoolie, Antny,( as in "Yo, Antny, ha ya doon?") whose reason for selecting AIG was "because it looks like a stool sample and the CEO is a crook." This is the kind of technical and fundamental analysis that Dr. Stool appreciates, and will get your recommendation featured here in Stock'O. Wall Street, take a lesson! The stock
looks like its in a sideways up phase within a sideways up phase, and that
is almost always bearish. Notice I said almost. The pink lines are
the trend channel back to the December 2000 high. Antny, Doc thinks you
may have something there. Once this little up phase is complete, can the
big breakdown be far behind. Stay tuned. Golden Stool The gold stocks have started the short cycle down phase we've been expecting. This still looks like a very powerful intermediate up phase in the early stages of a long term secular bull market in gold. I'm inclined to hold and see how this acts through the pullback, since the bigger uptrend appears intact. .
Oops, uncertainty rears its ugly head. The short cycle is coming into a low over the next few days, and the intermediate wave is up. The next day or two will be crucial in determining the slope of the intermediate uptrend. Each time yields approach 5.50, "the invisible hand" starts buying, capping the move. Whether the trend is strong enough now to break the guy's hand is the big question. The negative divergences need to be watched. If the momentum indicators turn down from these levels, yields could head down back to the 5% area. It looks like a short term low should form in a day or two. Once we see the following move up, we'll have a better idea about the intermediate trend.
Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle Buck wasn't doing too good today. He'll probably fall down to 117 in the short run, and he might rally a bit from there but tell the family to stay near the phone.
See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Welcome To New Subscribers Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. You may note some subtle differences in style now that this is no longer a free service. The perspective is still bearish, but it will have a more balanced approach than my message board ravings. You' won't see me screaming "BUY" about anything except perhaps gold, but you will see stronger indications of areas and times when I think it might be a good idea to avoid being short. And I promise that I will lose my temper from time to time to keep you entertained! I'll also be adding a new feature, Doc's By Request Stock O' The Day. If you have a stock you're interested in, send an email to [email protected], naming the stock, and why you think I should look at it, in 25 words or less. 26 words, and you're disqualified! Those that look interesting, I'll try to feature here within the next day or two. If you have suggestions about other features you'd like to see, send them along to [email protected]. Again, thanks for subscribing. Now, let me get to work!
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