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The Anals of Stock
Proctology
Published weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time
Weak End Edition Saturday Afternoon
The American Academy of Stock Proctology and
the American Society of Shortsellers
Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair
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Limited
Publication Schedule - Due
to a death in the family, I will be traveling for the remainder of the week and will rejoin you sometime this weekend. I will publish an abbreviated nightly update when possible, but will be unable to
do the intraday updates. See you this weekend.
Brief Update (7/30/02)
Updated cycle conditions and
centered moving average projections are posted below. There's a little
more upside in the 13 day cycle up phase, and longer cycles are in up
phases. Although the up phase should last no more than a few weeks,
and could get cut short, this doesn't look like a good time to be
establishing short positions yet. doc would wait for cleqar signs that the
top was in, and that will take time.
The Feed
added $2.25 billion in overnight repos. There were no expirations. Other
than these, there are no rollovers on Wednesday. As a result the total
Feed Index remained within the 10% growth channel. (Chart will return this
weekend.)
Dow Inflatables
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Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX)
and Sentiment
The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle
phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days
for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This
is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be
wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and
frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings.
SPX
Cycle Conditions as of 7/30/02
Cycle |
Phase/PTT |
Target |
6
Month |
Up/4-8W |
Too
Early |
10-13
Week |
Up/0-14 |
930-980p |
6-7
Week |
Up/0-5 |
930-980p |
20-25
Days |
Up/0-4 |
900-950 |
8,13
Day |
Up/0-4 |
910-920 |
PTT - Periods Till Turn
L-Low,
H-High
SWD=
Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project
Nasgap
Charts
Nasdaq
Cycle Conditions as of 7/30/02
Cycle |
Phase/PTT |
Target |
6
Month |
Up/2-6W |
Too
Early |
10-13
Week |
Up/0-14 |
Too
Early |
6-7
Week |
Up/0-4 |
1400 |
20-25
Days |
Up/0-4 |
1400 |
8,13
Day |
Up/0-4 |
1325-1375 |
PTT
- Periods Till Turn
L-Low,
H-High
*SWD=
Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project
AM
Edition Features (Previous) These
features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the
Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday!
Long
Bong Hit
Suctor
Watch- Will return this weekend
Stoolwethers
-Will return this weekend
Uncle Buck's Illness
Golden
Stool
See you in Intraday
Stool.
Dr. Stepan N. Stool
Chairman of the Department of Stock Proctology
A.S.S. Endowed Chair
American Society of Shortsellers Endowment
American Academy of Stock Proctology
Share your thoughts on the Stool
Pigeons Wire.
Renewals
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build
charts at http://www.livecharts.com.
For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes,
e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes
per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and
26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works
best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the
market's dominant frequency at the time.
The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day
cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13
day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles
use 26/18 stochastics with the following:
8 days- 60 minute bars
5 days- 40 minute bars
3 days- 24 minute bars
2 days- 16 minute bars
1 day- 6, 7, or 8 minute bars
On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4
times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above.
ABBREVIATIONS:
cma: centered moving average
cmap: centered moving average projection
os or ozzie: oscillator
sto: stochastic
swup: sideways up phase
swdp: sideways down phase
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