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The Anals of Stock Proctology

Published weeknights by 8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time
Weak End Edition Saturday Afternoon

 The American Academy of Stock Proctology and 
the American Society of Shortsellers
Dr. Stepan N. Stool, A.S.S. Chair


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Limited Publication Schedule  - Due to a death in the family, I will be traveling for the remainder of the week and will rejoin you sometime this weekend. I will publish an abbreviated nightly update when possible, but will be unable to do the intraday updates. See you this weekend.

Brief Update (7/30/02) 

Updated cycle conditions and centered moving average projections are posted below. There's a little more upside in the 13 day cycle up phase, and longer cycles are in up phases. Although the up phase should last no more than  a few weeks, and could get cut short, this doesn't look like a good time to be establishing short positions yet. doc would wait for cleqar signs that the top was in, and that will take time.


The Feed added $2.25 billion in overnight repos. There were no expirations. Other than these, there are no rollovers on Wednesday. As a result the total Feed Index remained within the 10% growth channel. (Chart will return this weekend.)



Dow Inflatables

 

 


Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment

All of Doc's cycle charts are powered by METASTOCKMetaStock Technical Analysis software!. (Sorry about the bull.) You've seen the software advertised on TV. 
Buy it now at Doc's bookstore! Best price anywhere!


The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings.

SPX Cycle Conditions as of 7/30/02

Cycle

Phase/PTT

Target

6 Month

Up/4-8W

Too Early

10-13 Week

Up/0-14

930-980p

6-7 Week

Up/0-5

930-980p

20-25 Days

Up/0-4

900-950

8,13 Day

Up/0-4

910-920

PTT - Periods Till Turn
L-Low, H-High
SWD= Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
SWU=Sideways Up
p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project


Nasgap Charts

Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 7/30/02

Cycle

Phase/PTT

Target

6 Month

Up/2-6W

Too Early

10-13 Week

Up/0-14

Too Early

6-7 Week

Up/0-4

1400

20-25 Days

Up/0-4

1400

8,13 Day

Up/0-4

1325-1375

PTT - Periods Till Turn
L-Low, H-High
*SWD= Sideways Down Phase- Trading Range
  SWU=Sideways Up
  p: preliminary
Too Early: Too soon to project


AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday!

Long Bong Hit

Suctor Watch- Will return this weekend

Stoolwethers -Will return this weekend

Uncle Buck's Illness

Golden Stool

See you in Intraday Stool

Dr. Stepan N. Stool
Chairman of the Department of Stock Proctology
A.S.S. Endowed Chair
American Society of Shortsellers Endowment
American Academy of Stock Proctology

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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com.  For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time.

The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following:

8 days- 60 minute bars
5 days- 40 minute bars
3 days- 24 minute bars
2 days- 16 minute bars
1 day- 6, 7, or 8 minute bars

On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above.

ABBREVIATIONS:

cma: centered moving average
cmap: centered moving average projection
os or ozzie: oscillator
sto: stochastic
swup: sideways up phase
swdp: sideways down phase

 

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