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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
Dowager Jones The big news was the surprise jump in retail sales, after taking out the bad stuff. Mohel Lynch (Oy do we got tips for you) added to the frenzy with a borking of F and GM. Office Depot upped it's yearly profit forecast. The market's gain, the news from HP, AMAT's positive surprise Tuesday night, and the retail sales data, put the media, the portfolio sphincters, and the analcysts in in a wildy ebullient mood. Here's a sampling of poodit sound bites in the borker sponsored print media: "Earnings growth is going to be very strong this year!" "The economy is in surprisingly good shape!" "Those companies with exposure to consumer spending should be able to post better than expected sales growth, at least for the first part of the year!" "People have plenty of cash -- and the inclination to spend it!" "Continued improvement in labor market conditions and consumer attitudes should help further both the strengthening and broadening of consumer spending in the months ahead!" True, I did find two comments that were mildly cautious, and never mind the fact that all the enthusiasm was over retail sales ex-autos, because that stunk. But then, we do get to ignore the bad stuff in a mania. The Dowager is headed for the upper line of the Bulloney Bullhorn formation after 4 days of rally. Three cycles are in gear to the upside, and one more up day will turn the 28 day rate of change up also. That would be a bad thing for bears. On the bright side, the 4 week centered moving average projection looks to be right around 10 large. Thursday is gonna be a battle royal. I really would not want to see the Dow close above the top of the bullhorn with all of those cycle oscillators headed higher. Of course, the Dow is not the real market. It's what the 3 member cartel that controls the Dow wants the public to see. Unfortunately it's what the public thinks that matters. |
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SPX Charts Notice that the pattern in the Portfolio Sphincters Index is not nearly as positive as the Dow. Hmm, I wonder why that is? Could it be because it's a lot harder to manipulate a 500 stock, capitalization weighted average, than a 30 stock arithmetically weighted average controlled by 3 specialist firms? Nahh! Note that the VIX has moved down (up on the chart) for five days and is back in hysteria territory. It did the same thing in both July and August before the collapse. This still looks like a classic return to the scene of the crime, where the market rallies back to the point of a significant breakdown.
No two cycles are exactly alike, but there are echoes and similar patterns which crop up at similar points. Coming off this last low, the rally looks similar to those which took place last July coming off the 10-13 week cycle low. In fact, this could be the 10-13 week cycle low. Looking back at September, the post 9/11 low was early. The extra-cyclical event probably took the market out of its normal rhythm. The cycle low looks like it was actually in mid October. (Ain't 20-20 hindsight a beeuteeful thing?) Now the picture begins to make sense. It means that the analogous period for the current phase, is July. And here I thought it was August already! Silly me. The implication is that we are going to see two or three more weeks of sideways chop before this thing finally falls apart. Beware the Ides of March. The next fiber nacho reflux levels are at 1128, and 1139. Hey, I just report this stuff.
The cycle charts have a new feature, a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. Is Doc a wild and crazy guy, or just a glutton for punishment? Actually, this is because I miscounted the last 13 day cycle, and was a day late and a dollar short at the low, looking for it on Monday, instead of Friday. That's no excuse, because 12 days is close enough, but this will force all of us to be a little more vigilant. It will still be wrong most of the time, but a little discipline can't hurt. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/13/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasdaq Charts The short cycle is still up, and the 10-13 week cycle is trying to find a bottom. At this stage of the 6 -10 month cycle, the up phase should look like the July up phase, i.e. no better than sideways. It's "upness" may not even be recognizable without sensitive filters.
The next fiber nacho reflux level is 1900. Got a little trendline problem first.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/13/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The time to ignore short term cyclicality is in the early stages of a bull market, like this one. Down phases from a cyclical perspective tend to move sideways in terms of price.
Long Bong Hit It looks as though yields may consolidate along the lower intermediate wave band. A short term up phase is due. So far, this has been a sideways down phase in the 10 year bond yield. That's bearish long term for bond holders, and ultimately for stocks. But not yet. Maney raised from bond sales is still rotating into the stock market. How dumb is that? Three month bills inched up to 1.71. They were as low as 1.54 a month ago. There was very little FEED activity this week, with a minimum of 11 billion needed just to maintain the current level of reserves, let alone feed the stock market. The Fed is finished easing.
See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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They ran the old
lady up the flagpole Wednesday morning and let her flap there in the
breeze for the rest of the day. The question in everyone's mind is, can
they do it again? Unfortunately, they can. 
Chart Powered by METASTOCK (Sorry about the
bull.)
