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Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02, 5/10/02, 5/13/02, 5/14/02, 5/15/02, 5/16/02, 5/17/02, 5/20/02, 5/21/02, 5/22/02, 5/23/02, 5/24/02, 5/28/02, 5/29/02, 5/30/02 6/01/02, 6/3/02, 6/4/02, 6/5/02, 6/6/02, 6/7/02, 6/10/02, 6/11/02, 6/12/02, 6/13/02, 6/14/02, 6/17/02, 6/18/02, 6/19/02, 6/20/02, 6/22/02, 6/24/02, 6/25/02, 6/26/02, 6/27/02, 6/30/02 7/1/02, 7/4/02, 7/5/02, 7/11/02, 7/14/02, 7/15/02, 7/16/02, 7/17/02, 7/18/02, 7/19/02, 7/22/02, 7/23/02, 7/24/02, 7/25/02, 7/27/02, 7/29/02, 7/30/02 8/1/02, 8/3/02, 8/5/02, 8/6/02, 8/7/02, 8/8/02, 8/10/02, 8/12/02, 8/13/02, 8/14/02, 8/15/02, 8/16/02, 8/19/02, 8/20/02, 8/21/02, 8/22/02, 8/23/02, 8/26/02, 8/27/02, 8/28/02, 8/29/02, 8/30/02
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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished weeknights by
8:30PM Happy Acres, Florida Time The American Academy of Stock Proctology and Is your subscription up for renewal? If you want to renew, do nothing, unless your credit card has expired. Please be sure your credit card info is current. If your credit card has expired, you must enter the new expiration date in your Paypal account in order for your subscription to be processed. If you subscribed via Paypal, your subscription will be renewed for one year on the 90 day anniversary of your sign-up and your credit card will be charged. If you want to cancel, use the button at the bottom of the page. This applies only if you subscribed through Paypal. Mailed-in subscriptions are for 1 year. If you subscribed by prior contribution, I will send you a notice before your subscription expires. If you have any questions, see the subscription page and FAQ's. If you can't find the answer, email me. Update 9/5/02 2:30 PM Terms and methodology The 5 hour cycle and 3 hour wavelet apparently topped out just before 2 PM. The 1 day cycle high isn't due until 3:45, but it looks like it's rolling over now. If so, the lows should be taken out on the Nas and retested on the SPX. If the SPX lows are taken out, then the market is trending and the down phase of the 10-13 week cycle is in charge. Update 9/5/02 1 PM Terms and methodology A 1 day cycle low was due at 12:30. The pullback may have been it. The market is extremely thin and volatile. We're seeing the 3 hour wavelet accentuated under the circumstances. It appears due for a 1 PM low. The 5 hour cycle has been in an up phase and would be due to peak at 2 PM. The cycles would appear to line up for a push up between 1 and 2 PM. We'll see. The action looks awfully sloppy, and the upside potential may already have been exhausted. This appears to be no more than a swup in the 5 and 8 day waves. A breakout in either direction does not appear likely. Doc does not make trading recommendations. This update reports intraday time cycle estimates and centered moving average projections based on the Hurst cycle analysis method. Doc assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or inaccuracy of these estimates and projections. The market may or may not meet these projections. New stoolies should thoroughly familiarize themselves with the methodology before trading based on this method. There is no free lunch. Those who do not have the time or inclination to develop a trading strategy based on testing and research should not trade. Trade at your own risk.
Update 9/5/02 9:15 AM Terms and methodology The fucutures are making a 1 day cycle low, just before the 9:15 AM close. Look for stocks to rally later today after opening weak. Virtually every chart in Suctors and Stoolwethers (bottom of page) has the short cycle oscillator on or near the trampoline. At the risk of being dead wrong, Doc is guessing that this morning's weakness is a shakeout by the stage managers. The market should be nearly sold out in the short run. Doc would be thinking of using weakness in the AM to cover shorts, then sit back and watch for a few days. The cycle picture on the indexes points to 5 hour and 1 day cycle lows at 11 AM and 12:30. Note that the AM cmaps are derived from the futures action overnight, and this is not always reliable. Turns in the 5 hour and 1 day cycle ozzies should be honored, regardless of whether the cmaps are hit.
Market Extreme Games (9/4/02) The Market Extreme Games continue, with wild volatility still the rule. Doc heard Jimmy Jones Cramer say something today that actually made sense in regard to this phenomenon. The market is illiquid, and it can be moved by one big institutional buyer or seller. After that moment of rare lucidity, JJ reverted to form, screaming, yelling, gnashing teeth, and telling one and all how great he is. Wednesday's action looked like the 4 week cycle low and bounce which the short cycle oscillators were predicting. As to how high, and how long, it's anybody's guess. Cycles are mixed. The 10-13 week cycle is clearly topping out. But the 6 month cycle is still positive, and the 13 day and 4 week cycles are bottoming. The 6-7 week cycle low is also imminent, if not under way. For the moment, it looks like bottom and up phases will outnumber top and down phases, of the key cycles, by 4 to 1. Seems like a good time for bears to take some off the table and be patient for the next good shorting opportunity which should be coming in a couple of weeks. The Feed drained $4 billion from the coffers of the Gang of 22 primary dealers. They rolled over only $7 billion of $11 billion in expiring overnight repos. Wednesday's $7 billion, plus $6 billion in 7 day repos will expire Thursday. It looks like Al is pumping hard
again. The Feed has blown out the top of Al's caution box. The temporary
slowing of Feed growth may be over, with Al possibly slipping back into
"damn the torpedoes" mode. A huge Feed will be needed Thursday
to fully offset $13 billion in expirations. If that's not forthcoming,
either the stocks, bonds, or both, will come under pressure. The bond
market rally has given Al some breathing room to feed. Let's see if he
uses it. The Feedometer which theoretically
measures excess Feed available for market jamming, is ambiguous. While the
Feed has pumped, we don't see the kind of excess feeding that would be
sufficient to jam stocks. If stocks rally again, it will probably be due
to portfolio balancing, out of bonds and into stocks. The Mortgage Bonkers Ass. (a nicer
bunch of crooks you wouldn't want to meet) released their weekly
applications index data for the week ended 8/30. In spite of record low
rates, applications volume dropped slightly. Refi's appear to have hit a
resistance level in spite of lower borrowing costs. Purchase applications
upticked slightly. In spite of the overall downtick this week, the bubble
rages on, relative to levels of three months ago. If theory holds, massive
jumps in broader measures of money are in the pipeline. This money will
help to cushion the stock market if not cause an outright rally. It will
certainly mitigate against the outright collapse the most bearish stoolies
are expecting.
All of Doc's
cycle charts
are powered by METASTOCK Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The VIX fell to 39.94. The 30.96 reading on August 22 looks like the 10-13 week cycle high. We should look for a reading around 50 and a reversal to confirm a 10-13 week cycle low. Readings at the next six month cycle low should be much higher. The 17 day rate of change is
downtrending in negative territory. The red
line on the chart is the superimposed 6-7 week cycle oscillator. It's
still heading down with from 1 to 6 trading days left in
this cycle. We need to be on guard for a low in that cycle as well. The
10-13 week cycle oscillator (dark blue) is topping out. It should be at least
4 to 5 weeks before a low in this cycle. The current bounce may correspond
with a 4 week cycle low, and an upturn in the 6-7
week cycle within 6 days will trigger a reaction rally which should a good
short selling opportunity. The 6 month cycle oscillator is headed up, in a barely sideways up phase. The trading stoolicator is topping out. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator is also topping out, and ticked under it's lag line today. The 10-13 week cycle is officially in a down phase, but it may only go sideways with the 6 month cycle still headed up. The short cycle oscillator is on the trampoline. It started to bounce today, but it could also correct upward without a substantial price rise because of mixed cyclicality. Cycle juxtaposition could lead to a volatile rangebound market for weeks. Very short term downside cmaps are 840-70, with preliminary projections
of 760, a month or so from now. At which point we'll get yet another rally
that fools the majority.
Fiber Nacho Barf- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 9/4/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The 4 week and 13 day cycles probably bottomed Wednesday. Short cycle cmaps moved up to the levels reached at the lows. While the shortest cycles should turn up, the topping out of the 10-13 week cycle should limit the upside. It won't be a runaway rally. There's a very preliminary target of 1330 over the next 5 days. We'll have a better idea after tomorrow. The 6
month cycle up phase is a weak swup. There 29 day rate of change is near a
sell signal. Close is no cigar. The indicator must turn down to confirm
the end of the uptrend. The 10-13 week cycle oscillator began to roll over
Wednesday suggesting that the cycle is entering a down phase that should
last 4-6 weeks. Could be a sideways down phase. The short cycle ozzie says
a bounce is due and the 6 month cycle is still headed up. It's all a
recipe for weeks of chop and flop. Intraday and overnight scalping should
be the rule until there are strong signs that the range is near a break.
Fiber Nacho Dump- Support levels and downside targets.
Fiber Nacho Reflux- Resistance levels and upside targets Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 9/4/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn AM Edition Features (Previous) These features are in morning edition, published around 9 AM ET US, or the Saturday Weak End Edition, published, uh, let's see, Saturday! Golden Stool The 17 day
rate of change joined the stoolicator in a short term sell signal. The 13
day cycle has probably entered a down phase. However cmaps for cycles from
4 to 10-13 weeks range from 134 to 137, which has not been reached yet.
Look for a pullback lasting a few days, then a move higher toward the
cmaps.
Bond yields punched through the hanging chad. Does that seal the decision?
Are we headed for deflation and 0% long term rates? This looks like the
bottom of the 10-12 month cycle channel but the market is trending. The
short cycle cmaps look like 3.90-4.0 for everything from 13 days to 10-13
weeks. It may not seem like it, but this should be the bottom. Uncle Buck's Illness
Buck got out of bed today. But he didn't get far. A little more bounce
should be forthcoming off a short cycle low. The intermediate cycle is in
a down phase, and the longer 10-12 month cycle is still headed up. Recipe
for a trading range. Aerospace- Is there a trade
here? Yes! The only question is which way. Biodrech- Looking for short
cycle bounce as six month cycle tops out. Druggies- Ditto HMO's- 10-13 week cycle top
building. Bonks- Building 10-13 week
cycle top. Consumer- Short cycle
bounce due as 10-13 week cycle tops out. Retail-Ditto. Small Crap-Ditto. Bubble- On the cusp. Could
blow up again as long cycles near lows with index at bottom of rising long
term channel. Or will the Hunchback complete. Stay tuned. SOX- Looks like dangerous
place to be short. Beware of shakeout then bounce. Soft Where- Also primed for
a bounce as part of 10-13 week cycle topping process. Should test prior
low first. Nutworkers- Conflicting
signals require patience and do nothing stance. Internuts- Ditto. Telecoms- Short cycle
bounce would complete 10-13 week cycle top. Stoolwethers Citicorpse-
Nearing support at 27.5. May be good for bounce, but 10-13 week cycle in
down phase. JPM- Stays
locked in range. Fannie-
Still building top. General
Custer- On the trampoline. One more bounce to complete top. GM- Up phase
nearing an end. Much More
Manipulation- More churning as 10-13 week cycle tops out. Wally- Still
has one more pop in this up phase. Crisco- On
slippery slope to 10, but not straight down. DELL-
Farmers still getting in. IBM- Hitting
the trampoline. INTC- Ditto. Mr. Bill-
Ditto. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Share your thoughts on the Stool Pigeons Wire.
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Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average
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