December
14, 2000 Chase Manhattan
Charts and quotes are current, but
delayed.
Dr. Stool put the scope on this
big bank stock in the news, and as usual, doesn't like what he sees.
(If you were lookin' at turds all day would you?) Of
course, you chart readers will look at this chart and see a
double bottom at 37. That DB is marked by broad positive
divergences in stochastics and momentum indicators. A five
month cycle low came in right on time. Coming off that
low, price broke out above the 18 and 44 day moving averages.
This would be a great chart... if we were in a bull market. Ah,
but alas we are not. And you know that in a bear market,
bullish signs don't work. They're just traps, snaring the
unsuspecting sheep. You need only to go back to the
May-June DB for an object lesson. Oh sure, you could have made
a little money if you were smart enough to recognize a bear
market rally, and get out early, but the September selloff
came without any warning from the indicators. Those brilliant
money managers who bought the stock at the June
"bottom" are now sitting on a loss of 10% (42 1/4 at
2 PM).
Now,
you folks know that the bubble
economy is crashing down around us. These big banks were
the ones who produced all the gas to blow up that bubble. They
were farting all over themselves, they were so excited. I mean
this was the "New Economy" fergodsakes. And, BYGOD,
WE'RE GOING TO FINANCE IT! They couldn't shovel it out fast
enough. Think about it. We haven't even seen the tip of the
stoolberg. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security by
falling interest rates. They're
just a sign of the trouble we're in.
When
will it be time to buy again?
"We don't
know, and neither do they."™
Come
visit Dr. Stool's new park bench. Observe the world, see the
droppings, and add yours to the mess at Stool
Pigeons on the Wire. Stepan
N. Stool PH&D
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