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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
How do you like the title of the new book Dr. Stool is working on ? (Thanks machinehead for the idea.) The first copy is going to James Glassman, author of Dow 36,000. I'm sure he'll enjoy it. He is an expert in the Wall Street farce genre. Speaking of Wall Street farce, Wednesday morning's leaking of Crisco's earnings and the ostensible excuse for it, (oops we accidentally leaked it internally so we have to make it public) was yet another act in that play. Crisco was on the verge of the Crisco Skid, and had the potential to take the market down with it. So let's just get the good news out early, and stop the slide before it starts. It worked for a minute. Somehow the portfolio sphincters even got all hot and bothered after the bell, when the "news" was re-announced. But then, they said something about the book to bill ratio slipping, not to mention that Crapvision had caught on to the fact that they had booked profits on the inventory they had written off. The net result was this:
The funny thing was that Crapvision's Sue Harass was interviewing Crisco's John Chambers (Get it? John? Chambers?) and read a reader's question that said, directly, "How much of those profits were booked on the inventory that had been written off?" OK, which one of you stoolies sent in that question?" Can you believe it, Chambers DID NOT ANSWER THE QUESTION! He answered something else that wasn't asked, but as to the question, let's just say it went right into the Chambers' pot, never to be seen again. So, is Thursday going to be the first 1,000 point step on the way to Dow 36? I don't know whether it will be, but I think the odds are high that it will be within the next two weeks. Today has as good a chance as any. Wednesday the Dow was off 32 to 9653. The low of 9608 was hit in the morning. The index rallied through mid day to its high of 9733, then spent the day selling off into the close. The market managers continue to make things look all purty by holding up the Dow, and pretending for public consumption that the market hasn't already broke down. That charade is about to end. |
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SPX Charts The SPX dropped 6.51 to 1083.51. The low of 1078 was hit in the AM. That was followed by a rally to the mid day high of 1093.58, then a gradual, whippy, selloff into the close. The VIX remains in neutral territory. This downtrend is still in its early stages.
The short cycles have just turned down. The 10-13 is in a down phase, and is getting weaker, with at least a month to go. Same goes for the 6 month cycle. The only question is whether that cycle will be 6 months, or an equally common 7 or 10 months. Bears can look forward to a long, grinding decline.
The SPX shot right through the 38.2% fibbing nacho retracement of the fourth quarter rally. The rally that turned the world bullish doesn't look so formidable now, does it. Next stop, 1060. Wonder how long that will hold. Not long is my guess. These numbers mean nothing in a meltdown.
SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/6/02
L-Low,
H-High Nasdaq Charts The Nas lost 25.81, closing at 1812.71, following the same zigzag pattern as the Dow. It actually gapped up at the open on the Crisco fix. That lasted 5 seconds. The index then slid to a low of 1805.01, rallied to the high of 1853.13, then sold off to close near the morning low. That set up a potential double bottom for the chartboys to buy. Barring an overnight miracle, that possibility died with the Crisco skid after the bell, and it looks at this point like we could be seeing a huge down gap on the open. And that will only be the beginning.
The Nasty continues to follow the August blueprint. The cycle phasing is similar.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/6/02
L-Low,
H-High Golden Stool Was this just a blowoff in the gold stocks, a whopsaw? Not likely. We'll probably see a sideways down phase in the short cycle, then another move in the uptrend. How high is up? A lot higher.
Sucktor Watch Our favorite group, the Bonks, includes two of our favorite stocks, JP Moogan Choke, and FleetEnemaBoston. Fleet broke down yesterday, after it was featured right here. I take no credit. But unlike a reader who said that Fleet's problems have nothing to do with their Specialist activities, I predict that those very activities will bring Fleet down, and that Fleet's inability to adequately fulfill its NYSE Specialist's responsibilities will play a major role in bringing down the market. If that does come to pass, whether it can be proven, is, as they say in academic circles, a whole 'nudder question. Stoolwethers The big story today was the Crisco skid averted in the morning, and back on after the bell. The market isn't going to swallow these shenanigans any more. It is in no mood. This slide has only just begun. Next stop, 10? . Dr. Stool thought this would be a good time to check on the progress of the borking of Untel by Goldman Sucks last week. Yah, right on schedule. The only problem is that the borker may not have been able to attract enough borkees to unload all of its inventory on. If they decide to pull the plug, and cut losses, that perfect head and shoulders is gonna break down before the poor borkees ever knew what hit 'em. And my guess is the borker ain't gonna be too happy either. They usually need 3 or 4 days to unload. They didn't get it this time. Borking only works in bull phases. Borks which are scheduled after the top has rolled over are a sign of borker desperation. . See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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