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The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Available by annual subscription for $1929 or free Welcome to the The Anals of Stock Proctology, the new scholarly journal of the American Academy of Stock Proctology, edited by the world famous founder of the study of Stock Proctology, Dr. Stepan N. Stool PHandD. The Anals replaces Capitalstool's nightly and weekend updates of the major stock indexes. Now you can get your nightly stock proctology report in one convenient, uncluttered page, right here. The Anals will be available for free, for the immediate future. Soon, however, all advertising and solicitation will be removed from the Anals, and access to the Anals will be restricted to subscribers. As a result of the clean format, the Anals will be readily printable for reading in locations more appropriate to such endeavors, such as, uh, the kitchen table. Yes. The remainder of the site, including The Stool Pigeons Wire, IntradayStool, Stoolhoo, and Stoolchat, will continue to be free. You will never have to pay for access to these pages. Previous contributors to Capitalstool will receive a free subscription period. Prior to going to a subscription format, the voluntary pay buttons will remain. So feel free to contribute now. Your contribution will result in a full credit toward your future subscription. Several of you have already contributed in excess of $500, and you will receive a free lifetime subscription. Contributors of written content or illustrations used on the Capitalstool front page will also receive free subscriptions. That includes all who achieve the level of Professor of Stock Proctology on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Initial subscription rates will be $19.29 quarterly or $74 per year, in honor of the great bear markets of the 20th century. Actually, 1937 was pretty bad too, so the Academy may offer a half year subscription for $37. Latecomers will be able to get a one time, one month trial for, what else? $6.66. As always I thank you for your support, and I look forward to many prosperous years working together with you. Happy New Year to you and to Bears the world over! Dr. Stepan N. Stool December 30, 2001
When Is A Surprise Not A Surprise? (2/10/02) That wild and crazy rally that began Friday afternoon barreled on Monday, barely missing a beat. As our friend Bill Fleckenstein likes to point out, speculation is alive and well. Oddly, all of the major averages were up to about the same degree, 1.5% with but the tiniest of pullbacks in mid morning. After that the market just labored higher, looking more and more tired as the day wore on. The poodits have concluded that accounting worries are fading, not that they were a big deal to begin with, and that not only is the economy recovering, but that there was never a recession to begin with. The financial infomercial media reported Monday morning that 95% of economists believed that a recovery was underway, with a consensus that growth would be 4% by the fourth quarter. Meanwhile on Crapvision this morning, the guest poodit, Jim Dickwad said that the big surprise was going to be the strong earnings recovery in the fourth quarter. He's about the 49th portfolio sphincter whom Dr. Stool has heard that from in the last 10 days. So obviously all the sphincters have placed their bets on a strong earnings recovery. What the hell else could they possibly be thinking with PE's at these levels? And this idiot says it's going to come as a big surprise. Well, there's gonna be a surprise all right, a big surprise for the sphincters when the earnings on which they are placing these wild speculative bets don't materialize. As all stock proctology students know, when the conventional wisdom reflects a near unanimous consensus, by definition. it's wrong. Whatever you hear on Crapvision, do the opposite, and you are guaranteed to make a fortune.
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SPX Charts Would you look at the VIX, right back into the top zone. It did the same thing late August. Why should this be any different? It ain't. This looks like a run of the mill recoil to the point of breakdown. the 6-7 week cycle has turned up. I'm not impressed.
The sum of a couple of short cycles heading up is what we've gotten for the last two days. At most, there are 3 more days when those cycles will be in gear. Longer cycles are still pushing down. Some time this week, this rally is going to be guillotined.
Have you had your fiber nacho reflatulence today? 1116 is the next likely level. That would set a nice little whopsaw through the downtrend. Whopsaws are tools used by market managers to suck in the last of the chartboys.
The cycle charts have a new feature, a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. Is Doc a wild and crazy guy, or just a glutton for punishment? Actually, this is because I miscounted the last 13 day cycle, and was a day late and a dollar short at the low, looking for it on Monday, instead of Friday. That's no excuse, because 12 days is close enough, but this will force all of us to be a little more vigilant. It will still be wrong most of the time, but a little discipline can't hurt. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 2/11/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasdaq Charts The Nas is also having a little short cycle bounce, with the upside projected to 1865-75 on this move. Intermediate indicators remain weak.
The current cycle phasing is similar to late August, and the Nas is doing many of the same things it did then. I suspect that will continue.
Your first fiber nacho reflux on the Nas is at 1850. They'll run it through that in the morning, but that doesn't count. If they can hold the gains all day, the next level is 1898.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 2/11/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn Golden Stool The gold stocks got sold today, because of a reverse borking by Prudential Sex, which actually put out a sell signal on NEM (see following chart). Now why would they want to do that? Simple, their traders are low on inventory, and the only way to get more is to get holders of gold stocks to sell it to them. So they go about it by trying to scare the crap out of nervous holders of gold stocks, who've been conditioned to expect big profits to evaporate overnight. If you were one of those sellers today, shame on you! This is nothing more than a pullback in a powerful new bull market. Rare Reverse Bork Here's the NEM chart. This is the reverse borking discussed above. The borkers figure this is the best way they can get the stock out of your hands and into theirs, while putting cash in your pocket to buy the other stocks they are borking you on, like semiconductor stocks. NEM is in a powerful intermediate uptrend. My guess is that this pullback won't last through the day on Tuesday. We'll see. . Spot Grease Oil ran up on Monday. What's the deal with the oil stocks? This sure as hell looks like a base, except that the 6 month cycle ozzie looks like it's starting to top out. The short cycles are going every which way. I'd say these stocks are going nowhere fast. The chart reflects the reality of the confusion in the marketplace. But let's keep an eye on it all the same.
Long Bong Hit Have bond yields broken their uptrend, or is this extension below the trend a springboard to much higher yields. The action of recent weeks looks like a possible sideways down phase, which means that long rates are about to explode higher. The verdict isn't in yet, and we need to keep an eye on this as always. See you in Intraday Stool. Let us know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Archive
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![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
Maybe
this rally has a little farther to go, maybe it doesn't. The signals are
mixed. This is at best a 6-7 week cycle sideways up phase, that could result
in a maddening chop for another week or two. Or it could be just another
spike, like the one at the beginning of the last 8 day cycle. Here we are,
9 hours off the low, and the portfolio sphincters have managed to pack 32
points up their SPX. Looking at the last such move 8 days ago, the SPX had
added 40. So this rally has only 80% of the gas that that one did. I'm
supposed to make guesses about these things, so I'll guess it'll poop out
around 1120 twice in the morning and at mid day, and we can short the hell
out of it. Then again, that might be wishful thinking. 
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