Take a subscribatory!
Download 
your Anals now!

Trading and Investing Books


Stool Home

Stooltrading FAQ 
Log-In


Subscriber Sections

The Anals
of Stock Proctology
 
(Log In) 
Get Instant Access

Fed Daily Report

Fed Weekly

Sector Watch

Stock Belwethers

Yield Report

Dollar Report

Gold Report

MoGauge ©

Subscription Help (Login, Password etc.)

The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Free Forums

Stool Pigeons Wire

Look Out Below

Intraday Stool

Goldbugs!-Stool's Gold

Mark To Market

B4-TheBell.com

Bullstool.com

Real Estate Bubble Watch


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products


Resources

Stock Charts

Market Stats and Kitco Thumbnail Charts

Bear Essentials
Resources for bears

Old Stool Depository

Alan Newman's Crosscurrents

Bill Fleckenstein

Bear Market Central

Comstock Partners

ContraryInvestor

Credit Bubble Bulletin

Daily Reckoning

Fallstreet

Goldseek.com

Marketviews with Ike Iossif

Prudentbear.com
Read the economic
case for the bear.
Home of the Prudent
Bear mutual funds

Tim Wood- Cyclesman

Google
Web 
Capitalstool.com
 
  

Market Overview

Select:

Quotes
Enter Symbol:
Quote Chart
Opinion Profile


Humor

Wall Street Follies Financial Funnies Hilarious! by stoolie prolerbear

Not In My Backyard
The creative genius of stoolie Fauxcaster


Pooper Scooper


Squeeze one out
for Capitalstool. Support the Stool!

 

 

 

 

[adbox-upper.htm]


We don't know and neither do they.

Overcapacity Bubble- How will we pay? 

 

(10/31/00) Stepan N. Stool, PH&D

What are the implications of years of booming capital spending, particularly in technology investments, and weak capacity utilization?

Might not the stock market bubble also have represented an economic bubble? Has virtually free capital not resulted in the development of excess productive capacity? If final consumer demand is insufficient to absorb the excess capacity, how do we pay the bills that are coming due?

I'm a tech savvy person, and I can't use a fraction of the stuff they are coming out with today. The rest either doesn't work very well, is too expensive, or both. How about you? And are you representative of the typical consumer? Can you use this stuff? Can your business?

Our ability to create new technologies has raced way ahead of our ability to use them. The willingness of the market to finance new (worthless?) technologies, without regard to the bottom line, has precedents, and the results have always been disastrous. New supply does not create demand. Corporations can't ultimately cover debt service, or give stockholders a reasonable return on invested capital, with an earnings yield of 1%.

The market, and the economy, were driven by the market's willingness to create capital under false pretenses, just like Japan did in the 1980s. Earnings growth was based on a pyramid scheme, and we've run out of greater fools. For the market to continue rising at double digit rates, earnings would have to grow likewise. Can earnings grow at even 10%. Without real, final demand, ultimately the answer must be no. As that realization continues to creep in, valuations will continue to adjust downward.

And the carnage will not end until historic overvaluation is followed its opposite reaction. The destruction of false value has a long way to go. Credit quality is a serious issue which has yet to be recognized. A financial accident is just around the corner.

 

Click symbol or name for expanded quote page


Market Overview

Select:

Quotes
Enter Symbol:    
Quote Chart 
Opinion  Profile


StoolMart
A Great Name in Retailing
Books, Software, Underwear, 
Accessories and
Fine China

NEW NAME, SAME GREAT PRODUCTS!


This book is a must for you Stooligans out there. The bible of cyclical analysis.
The book that started Dr. Stool on the road to ruin.


Click Here!