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IDS World Markets Thurs 21st February 08


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Posted

t?s=%5EAORD

 

 

Up today, what a surprise... All Ords +1.2% with IT taking a turn in the lead, +2.6% followed by Consumer Discretionary, +2.5%. Energy, -0.5%, is the only red sector thanks to Santos.

 

Reasonable rises in the miners: BHP +0.6%, RIO +1.3%. Golds: Newcrest +2.5%, Newmont +1.5% and Lihir +2.1%. Juniors flat to up.

 

In the oils, Santos has done a mega drop, -9.8%, Woodside +1.6% and Caltex +0.9%.

Posted

w?s=%5EAORD

 

 

Basically a sideways lurch intraday. All Ords couldn't quite make up its mind regarding direction but managed to close in an up phase, +1.5%. Most of the sectors had reasonably strong gains led by Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, both +2.9%. Property Trusts was the only red, -0.8%.

 

Relatively minor gains on the big 2: BHP +0.8% and RIO +1%. Golds did much better, Newcrest +2.7%, Newmont +2.2% and Lihir +4%. Juniors failed to ignite, closing mixed.

 

In the oils, Santos, -9%, had a heavy down day after an announcement regarding reduced profits and a production cut for 2008. Woodside closed +2.5% and Caltex +1.2%.

 

Over in Asia, Nikkers rebounded from yesterday, +3.2%, Honkers +1.3% and China -1.2%.

 

 

Over to UK/Europe:

 

t?s=%5EFTSE

 

t?s=^GDAXI

 

t?s=^FCHI

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Posted
Many miners look like they are about to turn up.

646228[/snapback]

 

Yes, I'm hoping this gold price move might finally light a fire under the juniors...traders have been very slow to get on board...

Posted

What Doc and Russ were talking about:

 

Corporate Defaults May Rise at Chinese Banks on Curbs

 

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese banks face higher bad-loan ratios for the first time since 2003 as corporate defaults may increase because of tighter credit controls and weakening demand from a slowing U.S. economy, Standard & Poor's said.

 

The government is clamping down on loan growth after China's cabinet identified overheating and inflation as two major risks facing the country's economy this year.

 

The central bank raised interest rates six times last year and has boosted the proportion of deposits lenders must hold as reserves to 15 percent, the highest in more than 20 years. It has also sold bills to drain cash from the financial system and ordered banks to curb lending.

 

The overall bad-loan ratio at domestic banks dropped to 6.17 percent by the end of last year, down from 19.6 percent in June 2003, according to China Banking Regulatory Commission. China has spent about $500 billion bailing out its biggest lenders over the past decade by carving out their soured debt and injecting capital.

Posted

People are asking questions about TIOs again. TIOs are very short term loans by the Treasury when it has received tax receipts that it does not need immediately.

 

The TIOs have no impact whatsoever on the market. They are simply a means of delaying the collection of tax receipts for a few days. They neither add to, nor subtract from liquidity in the system. Those who make a lot of noise about the TIOs simply do not know what they are talking about. TIOs are generally aligned with temporary Treasury debt paydowns. They are made available when the Treasury has excess cash from tax receipts. The cash comes in from the banking system to the Treasury one day, is returned to it the next day via the TIO, and then flows back to the Treasury a few days later when the TIO expires. If the TIOs are so important why does no one discuss the potential drain on the system when they expire? Because there is none? Businesses collect taxes, pay them, get some of the money back for a few days, and then give it back to the Treasury which then spends it, sending it back to the banking system. Businesses know exactly how much they are collecting, what their liability is, what their revenues are etc. so there's just no overall impact on the banking system, and especially on the market.

 

There are a lot of moronic conspiracy theories out there about the TIO.

 

Unlike the SOMA, which flow directly to and from the trading accounts of primary dealers, any business which collects taxes for the government and has what is called a Tax and Loan account can participate. So again, it only impacts the timing of tax payments and collections and has no impact on the markets directly or indirectly.

 

Treasury debt paydowns, on the other hand, usually do have an impact on the market because they are direct cash payments to holders of securities who must then reinvest the proceeds in a market with temporarily insufficient paper to absorb the cash. The paydowns therefore push down interest rates on the settlement date unless the Fed acts to offset the action by withdrawing the reserves.

Posted

on tap today:

 

Thursday, February 21, 2008 Exp Prev

ET/GMT

0830/1330 Feb 16 Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless Claims 349K 348K

Weekly Jobless Claims Net

Change +1K -9K

1000/1500 Feb 9 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer

Weekly Business Barometer +0.2%

1000/1500 Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Business Activity -12 -20.9

1000/1500 Jan Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators

Leading Index -0.1% -0.2%

1030/1530 Feb 15 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (in barrels) +2.9M +1.1M

Gasoline Stocks (in barrels) +1M +1.7M

Distillate Stocks (in barrels) -1.5M -100K

1030/1530 Feb 16 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Inventory

Natural Gas Stocks (in billion -172 -120

cubic feet)

1630/2130 Money Supply

Posted

another day that we could see more green..... was the last pull back a gift to we get back to 13k? I think the charts built a nice short term bottom. If any one had the guts to buy it. I should held on to those qqqq calls :)

Posted
on tap today:

 

Thursday, February 21, 2008                          Exp        Prev

  ET/GMT

0830/1330  Feb 16  Jobless Claims

                      Weekly Jobless Claims          349K      348K

                      Weekly Jobless Claims Net

                      Change                          +1K        -9K

1000/1500  Feb 9  DJ-BTMU Business Barometer

                      Weekly Business Barometer                  +0.2%

1000/1500  Feb    Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

                      Business Activity              -12        -20.9

1000/1500  Jan    Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators

                      Leading Index                  -0.1%      -0.2%

1030/1530  Feb 15  US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

                      Crude Oil Stocks (in barrels)  +2.9M      +1.1M

                      Gasoline Stocks (in barrels)    +1M        +1.7M

                      Distillate Stocks (in barrels)  -1.5M      -100K

1030/1530  Feb 16  US Energy Dept Natural Gas Inventory

                      Natural Gas Stocks (in billion  -172      -120

                      cubic feet)

1630/2130          Money Supply

646238[/snapback]

 

i wonder whats up with oil because i think inventories showed a surplus the last couple weeks ?

Posted

see wtf ??? supplies been RISING the last 6 weeks ?

 

Ahead of the Bell: Oil Inventory

Thursday February 21, 6:30 am ET

Traders Expect Government to Report Oil Inventories Grew Last Week for Sixth Straight Period

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Government data due out Thursday is forecast to show that crude-oil inventories rose last week for the sixth straight period.

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/oil_invento..._bell.html?.v=1

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