Charmin Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I thought it might be appropriate to get you geared up for not this weekend but next. The week of trading may be uneventfull until we hear some new words spoken by the magnificant 7. Just three little words could make or break your portfolio. Not just any special invitation is going to get you into Sir Al's world where words can make or break the market in a matter of hours. The international bankers would probably like to invite you to their next G7 meeting in florida and have all you natural gas guzzling northerners come down for a clambake, but I doubt you'd get the proper credentials as either goldbugs or Ngasbugs. So, go ahead and give it a try next Fryday at your own expense, and if you can't make it maybe they have a money show of some sort nearby where all investors get a free pass inside. Hey, take a load off your Ngas bill, cool off the house, and enjoy the natural heat of southern hospitality. I doubt we'll hear the insider results of all the discussion anyway. I thought it was nice that Stephen Roach had a special category for Sir Al and Co. - ?the Fed, in effect, has become a serial bubble blower." http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/d.../2004/0130.html Your welcome to unload your latest find in a world where everything runs on gas or fumes - the more BTU's the better, but you have to be totally sold on the golden bull or you won't command a special blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Charmin ... now you're waxing poetic.. I like it, nice stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Energy is firing on all cylinders. Lazy Pete is getting ready to party. Note the rising trend and unbelievable shakeout on the bull flag. Of course, energy is hot These apparently fundamental and technical convergences could be great fun....and gold will eventually move with it, imo. Revisit the quarterly neckline on XAU? What a nice bullish setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Those Elliot Wavers are starting to work on my nerves Attached waver says 440 and then finished and down down Why do they keep raising the number when it is finished ? Because they are finished ? http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/ne...7&m=3.1.10.0.0& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Those Elliot Wavers are starting to work on my nervesAttached waver says 440 and then finished and down down Why do they keep raising the number when it is finished ? Because they are finished ? http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/ne...7&m=3.1.10.0.0& My personal take is that Elliott is no different in revisionary properties than many other analysis tools, and is likewise subject to the skill of the anal cyst. One example that comes to mind is cyclical analysis (hurst being no exception). How many times have you read these analysis and counted the use of the words 'if' and 'or'? Try it for awhile - you'll be surprised. Also, I notice that whenever an Elliott analysis of gold and/or silver crops up with a bullish prognosis - many of the same voices of hatred for the negative charts are merrily eager to jump on the positive ones. I'd be more prone to sticking with the anal cysts divining the best results and not so much the method itself. The exception being the method that works best for you in your own analysis. It's just a tool. No more, no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I am starting to get nervous so the botom of goldmines is close I know here people laugh about such things In goldeagle somebody said the same a few days back and he got a lot of positive response For me fear means time to buy AGK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I am starting to get nervous so the botom of goldmines is closeI know here people laugh about such things In goldeagle somebody said the same a few days back and he got a lot of positive response For me fear means time to buy AGK I put a LOT of stock in that theory. Some over at the Trader's Talk forum do as well. I've always thought it would be nice if we did an ongoing bullish/bearish poll here. It'd be neat to chart against actual price action to see if there's any real merit. I do know that it seems when people here seem the most discouraged it seems we turn up shortly thereafter and likewise when people start getting smug we get slapped. It may not be a perfect science, but having seen it in action from an observational point of view it seems to bear merit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 My personal take is that Elliott is no different in revisionary properties than many other analysis tools, and is likewise subject to the skill of the anal cyst. One example that comes to mind is cyclical analysis (hurst being no exception). How many times have you read these analysis and counted the use of the words 'if' and 'or'? Try it for awhile - you'll be surprised. Also, I notice that whenever an Elliott analysis of gold and/or silver crops up with a bullish prognosis - many of the same voices of hatred for the negative charts are merrily eager to jump on the positive ones. I'd be more prone to sticking with the anal cysts divining the best results and not so much the method itself. The exception being the method that works best for you in your own analysis. It's just a tool. No more, no less. What he said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I put a LOT of stock in that theory. Some over at the Trader's Talk forum do as well. I've always thought it would be nice if we did an ongoing bullish/bearish poll here. It'd be neat to chart against actual price action to see if there's any real merit. I do know that it seems when people here seem the most discouraged it seems we turn up shortly thereafter and likewise when people start getting smug we get slapped. It may not be a perfect science, but having seen it in action from an observational point of view it seems to bear merit to me. I think it depends a lot on the pain treshold of the individual Losing 20% from the highs merely makes me nervous Losing 30% makes me afraid I am not at the afraid level but close The last three years buying at the afraid level would have inproved my performance with 15% AGK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I think it depends a lot on the pain treshold of the individualLosing 20% from the highs merely makes me nervous Losing 30% makes me afraid I am not at the afraid level but close The last three years buying at the afraid level would have inproved my performance with 15% AGK Maybe we could do a 'how nervous are you' you poll? Not very many seem to go short this sector so I don't think we have to worry as much about bullish/bearish as we do the importance of 'I am long and this nervous' 1 to 10? Just thinking out loud - been up all night so that's about all I'm good for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I love your idea of a nervous poll. Which is why I said I kinda liked the way alot here were bearish and thought the POG would go to 390 or 370. Which still might happen. As might XAU 85. I would really like to get some theories on the JPM and UBS upgrades. I know "why" they made me nervous - because they are criminals. That being said, I thought JPM had big short positions. So why talk up the POG? Were OR are they hedging themselves with long options? Did they close them after the upgrade? It was amazing how the POG tanked almost immediately after their call. But typical. Youse guys have any theories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Good idea about a poll I am 7 on a scale to ten But I guess real daytraders would rank totally different from the kind of buy and trade only 12 times a year like me AGK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I love your idea of a nervous poll. Which is why I said I kinda liked the way alot here were bearish and thought the POG would go to 390 or 370. Which still might happen. As might XAU 85. I would really like to get some theories on the JPM and UBS upgrades. I know "why" they made me nervous - because they are criminals. That being said, I thought JPM had big short positions. So why talk up the POG? Were OR are they hedging themselves with long options? Did they close them after the upgrade? It was amazing how the POG tanked almost immediately after their call. But typical. Youse guys have any theories? Boy am I with you on this one. I think I made a comment that day about their calls (specifically JPM) being a precurser to a drop (I said something about it being a 'bug killer'). I haven't formulate anything solid in my mind about why I felt that way except to say that they seem chronically prone to bearish gold calls and for awhile it worked - but lately it's done just the opposite (or been ignored at least). So when I see them making bullish calls - I have to view it as potentially contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 Okay, I started a nervous poll called the 'Precious Metal Twitch Poll' for anyone wanting to participate. If we don't like the exact format or layout we can always kill it and start another but I think it'd be nice if we did one once a week. Sort of like a bugsumer confidence index I made the first vote of 6 because I'm 100% pms (physical) still (66% silver, 33% palladium) and am feeling a wee bit nervous but not losing sleep or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted January 31, 2004 Report Share Posted January 31, 2004 I was totally flat miners until Thursday. I went 2/3 long BGO CDE GSS DROOY HL WHT SSRI and am up a bit. At this time I am nervous. Around 8 I would say. Looking for maybe 375-385 on gold although I am giving the bull the benefit of the doubt that the old top at 395 from last September will hold. The shares I bought either retested lows on lower volume or didn't come close. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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