SevenOfEleven Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 (PostEdit Note: Corrections/Additions in GREEN) Let's keep this thread strictly to the study of the cycles of precious metals and related indicators. I'll start things off with my current 8n day gold cycle study. It's foundation roots in what appears to be the well known 81 day gold cycle established by Stan Harley. I've furthered my study via the works of David Marantette (where are you David - many of us miss your work!) in compounding and averaging cycles. Decision Point offers further reading on the subject of cycles. Naturally, the very site you're at delves deep into cycles and cycle maps. I use a sine wave method that does it's best to fit a sine wave across a 10 cycle epoch. The end result is a cycle width that averages the past 10 cycles. It's been working well for me since around Dec of 2000 and is currently at a cycle width of 85 days. I prefer to refer to it as either an 80 day cycle or just an 8n day cycle because the moving average on it causes it to self adjust every cycle. Example - last cycle was 83 days. My current 8n day cycle chart is due to hit it's next cycle low 4/15/03. The following cycle high is due between 6/9/03 and 6/10/03.
SevenOfEleven Posted February 19, 2003 Author Report Posted February 19, 2003 Here is an eight year cycle chart from SHARELYNX. Lots of excellent historical charts to be found there.
SevenOfEleven Posted February 19, 2003 Author Report Posted February 19, 2003 Seasonal Cycles - Gold Chart. Silver Chart. Source: 321 Gold
ThorAss Posted February 19, 2003 Report Posted February 19, 2003 7-11 you da man. Errr ... you are a man aren't you? My plan for the past while has been a shallow low in early to mid-March on Gold and the PMS corresponding to the end of a BS rally in the broads and the buck a la last year. Obviously the late spike in Gold has led to what appears to be a serious retrace but let's get real here. Exactly how many days were we above 360. Exhaustion spike or merely a taste of what's to come. That's why I've positioned a modest long position in the broads (with tight STOPS). I'm keeping my core miners and adding a bit on pullbacks to trend on an individual basis. I though a bra strap pull on the broads was due today. It happened just so before but I don't think the bears are out of the woods yet. A bit of action from the desk could have the broad shorts scrambling and I swear there is sufficient fuel left out there to run her up for a few days yet. Some wonderfully wonderful news should hit soon too. Cycles and patterns man. Dey wey kool!
SevenOfEleven Posted February 19, 2003 Author Report Posted February 19, 2003 Errr ... you are a man aren't you? If I told you I'd have to kill you I agree about the broads - snapbacks and BS.
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Author Report Posted February 20, 2003 Cross Posted From a Daily Thread - Subj: Translation I study the troughs and center the peaks, so - in my study a cycle is from one peak to another. If you draw a circle (here I go again) in the middle of a trough between two peaks - that's one cycle. Left translation down (an early low) during a bull is like cocking a spring and it shoots itself (barring reversal mid cycle) high to the right side, which yields the right translation on the high. As long as that high doesn't pass the right side of the cycle by much you're bull. If it goes way too far then your next cycle is translating to the left on the highs == bearish and will most likely translate right on the low == bearish. This one might make sense outside my cybernetic implants so I'll cross post it over in the cycle thread.
SevenOfEleven Posted February 20, 2003 Author Report Posted February 20, 2003 Cross Posted From a Daily Thread - Subj: Translation Here was our last cycle. Notice the left translation on the trough (huge unmissible blue line to the left) and the right translation on the high (huge unmissible blue line to the right). Obviously that was a very bullish cycle. We had a similar translation on last May's cycle runup.
Guest jrmfl Posted February 23, 2003 Report Posted February 23, 2003 nice work 7, many thanks as i just discovered this thread. a fellow stoolie and i had coffee over these charts this morning and marveled at the accuracy. they are now being taped to the "wall of worry". best to you, j
SevenOfEleven Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Posted February 25, 2003 From 02/24/03 Daily Thread Posted by Charmin GOLD: 81 TD top-top cycle Starting with the birth of the gold bull in april of '01, there have been 6 significant tops so far, imo: they are, basis front month close values, : 5/18/01, 287.8; 9/26/01, 293.3; 2/08/02, 303.5; 6/04/02, 327.8; 9/24/02, 326.0; and 2/04/03, 379.0. If you calculate the number of trading days between these tops, you get: 88,80,79,67, and 90, or an average of 80.8 (.809 is a fibo ratio, btw). Calculating 80/81 comex trading days from 2/04/03 you get 5/31/03 or 6/02/03 for the next significant top (UNLESS..it decides to invert!)
SevenOfEleven Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Posted February 25, 2003 Regarding the previous post: All dates except 6/4/02 match those of the signifigant highs I've been tracking within the time frame in question. This isn't unusual - go to five different services and you'll get five different quotes for gold depending on the contract being used and perhaps other factors. They're close enough, though, and the descrepency question is one that I've seen raised hundreds of times over the past six years or so - and have yet to see anyone have a solid provable reason why "spot" quotes should vary as they do (and why folks apparently use different contracts). The data I use was purchased from Global Financial Data. The descrepencies, thus far, have, in my use and study over more than five years, been insignifigant. One thing I'm still working out is the periodicity between signifigant highs. Whether I calculate the figures with, or without, holidays, I do not come up with an 81 day cycle. The exact signifigant highs shown in the post above, excluding holidays, comes to 87 trading days. The current cycle length of 85 days I track differs from both because it averages 10 cycles rather than just the six noted. This has to do with someone I studied for some time and his cycle averaging methods, and what I considered impressive accuracy. Regardless, if anyone has answers or suggestions with regard to the 6 period descrepency - please let me know. I'd like to get that worked out in an effort to increase tolerance. Now for a couple of charts. One of the HUI, and one of the XAU, with the 8n day actual signifigant POG highs (closing values used) denoted by blue vertical bars and dated. This gives an excellent comparison of HUI and XAU price performance directly against the 8n cycle.
stormydaze Posted February 25, 2003 Report Posted February 25, 2003 Seven, The HUI chart shows a date of 4/3/02 and probably should read 6/3/02 I could be wrong Always great charts though. Regards
SevenOfEleven Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Posted February 25, 2003 Seven,The HUI chart shows a date of 4/3/02 and probably should read 6/3/02 I could be wrong Always great charts though. Regards Whooops! Thanks guy - got it!
Charmin Posted February 25, 2003 Report Posted February 25, 2003 is this where we get a 81 day cycle? http://www.insiidetrack.com/cotiii.htm
SevenOfEleven Posted February 26, 2003 Author Report Posted February 26, 2003 is this where we get a 81 day cycle? http://www.insiidetrack.com/cotiii.htm Interesting fit eh? Now if I could just get the days between cycles to come to 81... I was up all night yesterday counting with holidays, without holidays, trying to figure out which days I might be able to exclude for other reasons, etc, etc, etc... and even though my 'signifigant' high days agree with the post a few above me here - it just don't come to 81. Maybe I need to try the Mayan calander? <_<
stormydaze Posted February 26, 2003 Report Posted February 26, 2003 http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/goldheart.html Link provided by Purdymouth from IDS today. I'm just doing some comparison for future use. Might not be appropriate to compare these 2 charts but hey, what the heck do I know? Regards
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